NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Model skill is generally poor at surface depictions for mixed precip. Would need to look at soundings to see the full picture which I don't have access too.
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I think the danger is we're three days out and a lot can go wrong. IE the low developing too late or dynamics not being strong enough to cool the BL ect. But as things stand now verbatim, I think most would do very well. It wouldn't be an epic blizzard for the coast but it would easily be the biggest snowfall of the season.
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About 2-2.5" areawide.
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Theoretically on the Euro, most of this subforum sees 12+ hours of sleet or mixed precip which would cut down on totals along the coast. Doubt that happens in reality. We would be under the "death band" for a good 6-12 hours and even though surface temps would be 2-3 degrees above freezing I do believe it would accumulate.
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The Euro develops the system a bit later but we still end up with well over 2" of QPF. This should be all from storm 2.
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Monday afternoon, pretty much rain everywhere. Seems warmer than 00z.
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12z Euro Monday morning. Light precip breaking out.
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12z Euro has a very sharp cutoff South and East of I-87-I-287 in Southern NY. Lots of mixing and sleet for Bergen, SE Rockland and Westchester. Mostly rain for the immediate coast.
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This would be the March 2001 scenario.
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Looks like NWS lowered totals.
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It was initially way OTS when the system was in the mid Atlantic. The Euro at that hour has the system on the coast.
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The 18z GFS now has the system suppressed way out to sea.
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Be happy that most of this falls at night because if it was falling during the day this time of year it would just be white rain.
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The 18z GFS has a very sharp cut off South of I-287-I-87 in Rockland/Westchester. Basically on a line from Suffern to Spring Valley to Nanuet to Nyack to White Plains.
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That 1-3" is for non paved surfaces for the city and immediate burbs.
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My point and click in Rockland is for 3-5" Very similar to last weeks event. Changeover expected at 10PM Friday night. Ending late Saturday morning.
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The system finally occludes and stalls near Cape Cod on Tuesday night. Over 30 hours of precip from start to finish.
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Cannot ask for a much more juiced system. This would be a widespread 18"+ about 40 miles inland.
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Still snowing.
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Even at hr 126 temps are stuck in the mid 30's at the coast.
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Bombs Away
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It's mid March. A track like this in January/February would have produced for everyone but that time has long since passed.
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Incoming
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Euro hour 102. Surface temps start off in the lower 40's and fall into the mid-upper 30's along the coast. Looks like a paste job for the interior crew.
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The Euro is going to be a major hit (precip wise) Storm at 96 hours is developing off the VA Capes with precip breaking out over the area.
