NJwx85

Upton pissing in everyone's tea. Snow/sleet amounts have been adjusted down a bit given today`s model trends and potential for the warm nose to be quicker than originally anticipated. Within the watch area, 3 to 6 inches of snow/sleet is forecast with one to two tenths of ice accretion possible. Around an inch of snow/sleet across NYC metro and Long Island and potentially up to 2 inches across coastal CT is forecast into early Friday morning before changing over to plain rain. Any freezing rain looks brief across these areas with a brief glaze of ice possible. Again as mentioned above, the winter storm watch remains in effect Thursday evening into Friday. It may eventually be converted to an advisory given ongoing model trends continue. An advisory may also be needed at the coast largely due to some light icing before the changeover to plain rain around or shortly after daybreak Friday. It should be noted that the overall large scale pattern with strong warm advection aloft argues for a mixed PTYPE well into the interior. The main uncertainty is how quickly this warm air will move from south to north across the area. While the NAM may be too aggressive, its past performance in similar situations supports a trend down in snow/sleet amounts, with potential for adjustments down in subsequent forecasts.

Warmer aloft and colder at the surface = freezing rain, not sleet. For more sleet vs freezing rain you would want it colder aloft, assuming you're looking to avoid an ice storm.

3k NAM has some icing in interior sections, 0.25"+ for places like Western Rockland, upper Bergen and Western Passaic, but it's mostly after 12z. Precip by then is lighter and temps are borderline. Again that's taking it verbatim. I want to see what the RGEM says.

Sleet to ZR for the interior and sleet to rain for the coastal plain.

18Z HRRR

Would need to see the soundings to confirm this but the surface map shows the mixing line to the Bergen/Rockland line by 06z.

Not really. The snowfall maps don't match what it's depicting at the surface.

If you're talking the Poconos and up around I-84 then yes. It has a lot of sleet and ice for areas further South.

It's kind of disappointing that this storm starts so late on Thursday night and is pretty much over by 9AM.

The NAM is a northern outlier and it's not even close.

Quickly looked at the 12z guidance so far. The GFS has a lot of sleet for NYC and freezing rain for the interior after some sleet and snow to start. The GGEM which I give very low value has some impressive ice numbers near I-78 and then an impressive amount of sleet over the interior. It has surface temps is the lower to mid 20's when the precipitation is coldest. Upper 20's even at the coast. The RGEM is a lot like the GGEM. Big time sleet fest for most of the area and a little ice at the end. The NAM brings the mid level lows too far North and is an outlier. We get some sleet and then dry slot till the cold front comes through. Tossing. The Euro is probably the best case scenario if you're looking for snow but it still pretty much limits things to areas North of 287/87.

The 12z GFS soundings show NYC sitting at 32 degrees at 12z Friday. Even at 18z NYC is only at 33 degrees and by then the storm is history.

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 352 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 CTZ005>008-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-232300- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.220225T0000Z-220225T2300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam- Rockland-Northern Westchester- 352 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact mainly the Friday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$

Learning my lesson from the last potential ice storm. Completely different setup but we need to wait for the high resolution mesoscale models to come into better range.

The 12z GFS was actually very close to showing a lot more snow for places like NNJ. Where it's showing sleet at the surface, the soundings show that we do have a warm nose around 750mb but at best it might be +1C. More warm air arrives after 12z but a good 0.5"+ of liquid falls between 06z and 12z.

The is high is leaving. No blocking to keep it in place. And the air mass isn’t that cold to begin with. If this was a month ago it could have been different.

One storm threat at a time unless this becomes the main show.

We could definitely get a good 3-6 hour front end dump before the changeover for inland areas. Problem is the high is retreating and the air mass is stale.

You’re not getting a big snow storm here with those mid level low tracks. Everything is too far North.

The 12z GGEM is give or take an inch of liquid as sleet for most of this area. Freezing rain pretty much stays South of I-78 and snow is North of I-84.

The Canadian is not a big snowstorm for anyone is this forum. A lot of sleet and ice.

Looked at the 12z GFS very quickly. The primary makes it to around Albany before transferring to the coast. Seems like a classic late developing miller B. Coastal develops so late that really only Central and Northern New England cash in. The ice threat looks minimal as unlike the last storm, temperatures are warming at the surface. You do have that 1036mb high over SE Canada but it's retreating and not far enough South. We would have wanted it over Northern New England. 850mb freezing line moves well North after 12z Friday. Anyone North of the 0c line on this frame is good for about a 6 hour period of Snow changing to sleet and then some freezing rain before everyone flips over to plain rain. South of this is mostly sleet/ice changing to plain rain. Even over Rockland sounding show the surface around 30 which won't be cold enough to cause significant icing issues, especially since it will be short lived. If you look at the trend for the last four runs, it did actually hang onto the cold air longer after trending warmer the last two runs. Still time to go but we're a long way away from a big snow storm South of I-84.

Of course Winter isn’t over yet. But March is the same as September. Both are transition months. In like a lion, out like a lamb ect. We will have our chances. Just think the modeling favors SNJ, E LI and New England more than it does NYC and points North and West.

63 in Ramsey.

Trough axis looks too far East. Suppression depression.