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mikem81

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About mikem81

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    JFK
  • Location:
    Hempstead, NY

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  1. mikem81

    OBS thread Feb 20-21, 2019

    HRRR just doesnt seem to line up with current radar which almost looks like everything is getting shunned offshore.. We shall see.
  2. mikem81

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    I doubt anyone goes above freezing until the dry slot comes through around 6-7pm. Temps are stuck in mid to upper 20's region wide and obviously colder well NW
  3. mikem81

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    HRRR running 1-2 degrees cooler (surface temps) at 14Z run then 13Z through noon...
  4. mikem81

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    27/21 here in Western Nassau County. Steady Snow. Expecting sleet by noon the latest... Lets see if the HP causes any last minute November like surprises..
  5. mikem81

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    It cut precip in half through 7pm tommorrow.
  6. mikem81

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    Gets above freezing around 7-8pm.... about .75 LE falls before then.
  7. mikem81

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    Nice to see the NAM/RGEM tick slightly colder for tomorrow. Maybe we can at least see an inch or 2 before the sleet and then the wash out
  8. mikem81

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    pivotalweather. great site. just click on the map location for soundings. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php
  9. mikem81

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_18z/gfsloop.html#picture I always find these panels good for GFS. Surprised to see almost .6 LE fall before 850 line reaches NYC/LI with even the GFS keeping surface temps in the 30's the entire duration except right along the south shore and eastern LI
  10. EURO looks more amped through 72 unfortunately.
  11. UKMET? I thought it looked slightly better on the 24 hour panels
  12. GFS in only bad with surface temps. problem is the 850 temps will skyrocket if the HP doesnt block the primary low from going way NW of the area. Need something to shred the primary earlier and transfer to the delmarva. The models showed that concept yesterday, but have trended much worse in the last 2 cycles. I can see this turning into an all rain event similiar to the 1/20 storm
  13. Plus CMC just showed almost identical solution
  14. GFS is much better snow to some drizzle/fr drizzle. Primary much weaker and transfers to the delmarva in time,.
  15. Which models have the best MJO verification scores so far?
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