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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    The 12z GGEM was great 20 miles inland and lingers snow Sunday.
  2. NJwx85
    I’m in Bardonia. 3-5” here, maybe isolated 6-8” if it overperforms.
  3. NJwx85
    I still think that with such a crappy air mass that it’s not going to matter much. Yesterday I was confident in 6-10” up here in Rockland. I think 3-5” is a better call today. We shall see. If it comes in as a wall it could briefly over perform. The problem is the strong Easterly flow along the coast until after the low passes. Over the ocean temps will be in the mid 40’s.
  4. NJwx85
    Went back and looked at my original post. I said almost all rain, maybe an hour or two of slop. I stand by that statement. I don’t believe any sites in NYC record over 2” unless things trend differently today.
  5. NJwx85
    NYC receives around 0.3 QPF before issues begin on the 12z GFS. That’s why you will see 2-4” on Kuchera. But that’s mostly on grassy and cold surfaces. And Brooklyn and SI change over very fast.
  6. NJwx85
    2-4” in NYC, less in Brooklyn and SI. If it really comes down hard I could see that on colder surfaces.
  7. NJwx85
    If you look at the 12z GFS soundings you’re looking at a quick flip to rain or mixed precip after only an hour or two. Perhaps it’s too warm. We shall see.
  8. NJwx85
    I grew up in Pompton Plains. My parents still live there. We always did great in marginal storms.
  9. NJwx85
    You’re using a 10:1 map which is highly innacurate in this storm. Temps are in the mid 30’s. At best you’re looking at 1-3” in NYC and in the outer boroughs facing the water that could be generous. Look at the positive snow growth. White rain doesn’t count.
  10. NJwx85
    Yes. You have be across before 7am on morning rush hour going South and the evening commutes can be terrible.
  11. NJwx85
    I don’t think I’ll even get 5” and I’m 15 miles inland.
  12. NJwx85
    The totals increased on the GFS in areas that were already seeing all or mostly snow. Nothing has really changed. Locked in now.
  13. NJwx85
    You’re not going to accumulate in the concrete jungle at 35 degrees even in January. Central Park is a different story.
  14. NJwx85
    Supposedly there’s a period of light snow on Sunday. Low by that point is East of Cape Cod. 6 hours too late but really helps Boston.
  15. NJwx85
    Boston is in the mid 30’s with an onshore flow until Sunday morning.
  16. NJwx85
    The high which isn’t strong to begin with is over Nova Scotia by Saturday night. No cold air drainage.
  17. NJwx85
    The track isn’t the issue. You have a retreating high and a weak storm. Remember when this looked like it might hit DC?
  18. NJwx85
    Almost all rain for NYC on the 12z GFS. Maybe an hour or two of slop.
  19. NJwx85
    12z GFS, rain snow line near 287/87 by 06z.
  20. NJwx85
    12z GFS, NYC starts as a few wet flakes and quickly flips to rain or mixed precip. At 00z they are already 34 degrees.
  21. NJwx85
    12z GFS so far is stronger and further North.
  22. NJwx85
    Models are in agreement on a sub 980 surface low tracking over Lake Erie. The current model depiction would bring heavy rain and very windy conditions even well inland. Potential for widesprad 2-4”+ of rain and wind gusts in excess of 50mph will result in a moderate to high threat of power outages, made worse with saturated grounds. Area rivers which have recently experienced flooding will once again be stressed. Rapid snow melt, especially in Northern areas will exacerbate the flooding threat.
  23. NJwx85
    My current thinking is that it develops a few hours too late. Some of the high res models however do indicate the potential for some backend snows on Long Island.
  24. NJwx85
    The super high res models like the FV3 Hi-Res indicate that accumulatins are very elevation dependent with this system. Even across Rockland which usually does well in these systems could see less than 2” on the Southeast portion near Nyack and over 10” in the hillier areas that border Orange County.
  25. NJwx85
    I have nothing new to add that hasn’t already been said. Steep gradient that should run East of the GSP (Spring Valley/Montvale) and South of 287/87 in Rockland and Westchester. The difference beteeen Yorktown and Yonkers could be over 6”. Places like West Milford and Warwick with some elevation will be near a foot or more. This is a 5-6 hour quick dump unless the secondary system works out for Sunday. My current thought is whatever falls Sunday morning will be light and not impact totals much.
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