NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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28 degrees with moderate rain is about as ugly as it gets here.
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00z GFS. About the same as 18z but a little more sleet mixing in.
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0.75” + for Rockland.
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Down to 39 degrees here now.
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Yes most of Clarkstown just closed. West NYACK and Felix Festa went remote.
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Driving home it was 39 in Suffern, 42 in Spring Valley and 41 here in Bardonia. You can see exactly where the gradient is.
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41 degrees in Mahwah. Those 50’s were out to lunch.
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This happened once before, I believe 2007. WWA was eventually upgraded to an ice storm warning in places. I believe that is the last time we had one in the NYC warning area outside of maybe Western Passaic.
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They really needed to drag the 0.25"+ line down to at least Southern Rockland County.
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Rockland County at 15z tomorrow. 3k 18z NAM.
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Southern Bergen County at 18z tomorrow. 3k 18z NAM
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It drops quite a bit more liquid than the Euro between 18z and 00z. Temps really plummet after 12-15z.
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The last few runs of the HRRR have been trending colder in the near term.
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If it gets colder even an hour or two sooner it's going to make a difference.
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I think the reason for the warm tongue into Sullivan County is because of the difference in elevation. The cold air is very shallow.
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12z Euro gets extreme NNJ and the Hudson Valley below freezing by 12z. That's the key. It actually trended 1-2 degrees colder at this hour than the 00z run.
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The long range HRRR is similar. Watching for trends.
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LOL at the GGEM. 20 degree drop in six hours. I don't think so.
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19 degrees in Poughkeepsie, 22 degrees in Warwick and 30 degrees in White Plains at the same hour. The real cold air isn't far away.
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It's not a one size fits all scenario. 0.5" will accrete much faster at 28 degrees than it would 32 degrees.
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Of course it is or I wouldn't bother posting it. It has most areas North of I-80 below freezing by 12z.
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GFS won't back down.
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How much of the rain actually freezes on contact really depends on intensity and surface temps. The 3k NAM has most of Northern Bergen and Southern Rockland sitting between 28 and 30 degrees when the heaviest is falling. Would think you would get pretty good accretion at those temps.
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12z RGEM which has always been on the warmer side. It actually has quite a long period of ZR but the precip isn't as intense as some of the other guidance.
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Mt Holly and Upton aren't on the same page with this.
