NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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This is kind of a unique setup for us. Usually the cold air is departing. This is the setup you normally see over the Southern plains or TN Valley.
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Going with the Euro I presume.
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I updated the thread title. If some areas do see snow it will likely be at the very end and not amount to much unless things shift dramatically.
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Never use the Kuchera in a setup like this. Ratios will be god awful unless you're well upstate.
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18z GFS freezing rain.
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The soundings for the 18z GFS show a very prominent warm push between 700 and 900mb. I highly doubt most of what it shows falling as snow would be snow in actuality. More likely to be sleet.
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This is a storm where you would expect the NAM to do really well. It usually is better than the globals at picking up on CAD.
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You have to see how shallow the warm air is. If most of the column is cold or if the warm layer is above 925mb that would favor more sleet.
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Historically speaking these big ice events hardly ever work out for our area but the setup is more like you would normally get in the Southern plains or the Osarks with the strong high to the North and a positively tilted trough with massive amounts of overrunning. The cold air isn’t retreating either, unlike most of our ice threats. Could be very nasty, especially for the Hudson Valley and points West.
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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
NJwx85 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Hard to get a good measurement because of the drifting but finished with 4-5” here in central Rockland just North of the 287/87/PIP interchange. -
The models over the past two cycles have trended towards a deeper trough. What once looked like a major warmup and a cutter now looks like a very messy situation. The 06z GFS brings a lot of sleet and ZR to much of the area on Friday after starting as rain Thursday night. The Euro isn’t that much different and neither is the Canadian. Five days out, discuss here.
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Spent most of the night stuck between bands. Mostly light to occasionally moderate snow. Haven’t gone out yet but eyeballing about 3” of snow. Still coming down but the storm is starting to pull East. You can see the Western edge starting to dry up. Think it’s over up here by noon at the latest.
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A lot of posters here live in NNJ and the Hudson Valley and are at major risk of underperforming.
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God no. The GFS was awful with the upper levels. It also had many runs that were so far East even Boston barely got anything.
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Well that's what I was referring too in my post. It's been ticking SE in places that are in danger.
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Where? Take a look at snowfall totals for NW areas. You can even see it backing out of the city.
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If you look at the last 4 runs of the HRRR through 12z tomorrow the model has ticked SE ever so slightly with each consecutive run.
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We would have wanted that concentrated area of purple contours right up near the coast to see big snow. We get some decent lift near the city for a few hours but then eventually it moves NE with the low. Starting to think they should drop the warnings NW of the city.
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Amazing to see how much the models have backed off on the wind threat. Away from the coast 15-20mph tops now.
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This could be the windshield wiper affect where models over corrected West last night and now are overcorrecting East today. Hopefully that gives time for some correction back West tonight. The NAM jumped around like it always does and some people fell for it hook, line and sinker.
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Certainly not what we had hoped for, but still a solid 6-12" for most areas in the Upton CWA. Some areas NW could see rather high ratios given that the wind threat has really subsided outside of E LI. The Eastern half of LI still looks solid for 12-24".
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Never closes off that ULL over the Carolinas like it did on yesterday's 12z run.
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Big Euro run about to start. Not so much worried about the placement on the surface low. Just hoping for a clean phase and consolidated system instead of a double barrel low. If that happens the rest will fall in place.
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We're inside 24hrs. The Western and Eastern most outliers are coming together for the likely outcome. We still have a small shot at a substantial shift in either direction tonight.
