NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Where? Take a look at snowfall totals for NW areas. You can even see it backing out of the city.
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If you look at the last 4 runs of the HRRR through 12z tomorrow the model has ticked SE ever so slightly with each consecutive run.
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We would have wanted that concentrated area of purple contours right up near the coast to see big snow. We get some decent lift near the city for a few hours but then eventually it moves NE with the low. Starting to think they should drop the warnings NW of the city.
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Amazing to see how much the models have backed off on the wind threat. Away from the coast 15-20mph tops now.
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This could be the windshield wiper affect where models over corrected West last night and now are overcorrecting East today. Hopefully that gives time for some correction back West tonight. The NAM jumped around like it always does and some people fell for it hook, line and sinker.
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Certainly not what we had hoped for, but still a solid 6-12" for most areas in the Upton CWA. Some areas NW could see rather high ratios given that the wind threat has really subsided outside of E LI. The Eastern half of LI still looks solid for 12-24".
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Never closes off that ULL over the Carolinas like it did on yesterday's 12z run.
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Big Euro run about to start. Not so much worried about the placement on the surface low. Just hoping for a clean phase and consolidated system instead of a double barrel low. If that happens the rest will fall in place.
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We're inside 24hrs. The Western and Eastern most outliers are coming together for the likely outcome. We still have a small shot at a substantial shift in either direction tonight.
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It's a complex phase with multiple pieces and moving parts. The cleaner the phase the stronger the storm. It needs to come together perfectly for us to reach max potential. Boston and E LI has more wiggle room.
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As others have said, battle going on internally because of the double barrel lows. Need the energy to consolidate into one large storm. If that happens we will end up with something similar to what the 00z NAM had. If this doesn't happen and we get an elongated duel surface low than the 12"+ amounts will be delegated to Suffolk County, North and East and the wind threat will be much lower.
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This model and the HRRR are becoming more important now. You want to look for short term trends.
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I still think this has room to jog back West later today. The important thing was that the Southern piece ejected and got out ahead of the Northern piece which it has. We're still about 18hrs away from showtime.
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Before everyone panics the NAM is still a big hit.
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Any further West and E LI will dry slot after about 20” of snow.
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I think the city has a good shot at 20”
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Who said this was done coming West?
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It's sloppy, just like the Euro. Hopefully the 00z runs tonight have a better clue.
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GFS caves. Closing off East of Delmarva.
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Yeah, just like Juno...
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Every time you mention the name Juno it gives undo credibility to the Weather channel's marketing ploy of naming winter storms. Secondly, I didn't see a single flake in that storm 25 miles West of the city. This storm will make it much further West even if the more tucked in solutions are incorrect.
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Close to 4 feet West of Boston.
