NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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It really is astounding The 12z Friday position is nearly identical to the 00z run.
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Also to note is that the GFS has moderate Southwesterly shear building West of potential Nigel thanks to deep East coast trough.
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12z GFS has a major hurricane one week from today Southeast of Bermuda and heading West with ridging overhead. It needs to miss the weakness leftover behind Margot if it has a chance of making it West of Bermuda.
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12z GFS is about 50 miles or so SW of the previous run at 90hrs. It's decently slower and on a trajectory for a landfall in extreme Eastern Maine.
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The outflow has really improved the last few hours and the eye appears to be clearing out some. The HAFS is predicting a more or less steady state system until Saturday morning when it starts to feel the cooler SST.
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Hurricane models showed this nicely. Huge expansion of wind field and truck tire eye. Not much strengthening though due to larger size.
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Looks like the 12z EPS mean landfalls in Eastern Maine.
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I don't think this is going to landfall in the US anymore than you do, but a glancing blow is still definitely possible.
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If you look at the steering flow there's no reason to believe it just stops moving NW from this point.
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If you put it into motion it's headed in that direction at a fairly good speed.
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12z HAFS-A is hooking left into SNE as the run ends.
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12z HWRF is similar to the globals with a likely landfall in Eastern Maine or Nova Scotia imminent. Tropical storm force winds make it to the Cape by Saturday afternoon.
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Fairly strong consensus building for a landfall in down East Maine or Nova Scotia. Not really too concerned about New England. That area is used to seeing strong winds during winter storms.
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New England is within the cone of uncertainty. That should tell you all you need to know.
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Most, but not all of the 06z GEFS members steer the next system safely out to sea. Threat is not zero but is minimal at this time.
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IR has improved a lot. Shear looks like it has backed off.
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https://x.com/drewshearer444/status/1700290188189077964?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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12z HAFS brings Lee back up to Cat 5 intensity tomorrow, hitting ~155kts (175 MPH) at 03z Sunday before an ERC on Sunday/Monday which dramatically expands the wind field. Current : vs
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12z ECMWF with a Nova Scotia landfall on Sunday the 17th.
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Still makes landfall in Nova Scotia. A little East of the GFS.
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The runs which hit land mostly have have the second trough lifting out and then the steering currents are left to the clockwise rotation around the high to the East. This run would be a big hit in Eastern Maine and Nova Scotia.
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The second trough lifted out faster but it's still moving North due to the flow around the high to the East.
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12z GFS looks headed for a landfall in either down east Maine or Nova Scotia.
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12z GFS is about 50-75 miles SW of the 06z position valid 00z Thursday.
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The key is missing the first trough early next week. Most of the modeling that had an early recurve had Lee at least partially interacting with it. Also, the ridging over Eastern North America continues to trend stronger on the GFS.
