NJwx85

Very rare to see the Euro make big jumps inside of 96hrs. It's usually painfully consistent and slowly moves towards the correct solution over many runs. It did horribly with January 2015 and many people incorrectly sided with it over the GFS. If the NAM agrees with the GFS, it's usually game over. That hasn't happened yet.

The wildcard is if the models are closing off the ULL too late. Even the 12z GFS closes it off which was an improvement, but not until SE of Cape Cod.

It actually looks like we're moving towards a consensus. Heaviest snow Eastern LI up into SE New England. Everyone else glancing blow. Don't think 6-10" is out of the question yet for NYC, especially given high ratios.

Must get that Southern stream vort to eject out ahead of the digging trough. Only two ways to make it happen. Slow down the Northern stream or speed up the Southern stream.

No, to get a dry slot the ULL would have to come onshore. It's going to pass Southeast of LI.

If the 12z GGEM had closed off the ULL 6 hours sooner we would have all been measuring snow in feet. Instead it closes off 6 hours later South of the Twin forks. It's that close.

The 20"+ amounts from a few days ago are off the table but this will still be a double digit snowfall for many with potential for a few surprises depending on where the best banding sets up. The 12z GFS was actually quite a bit better. If you look at the last four runs of the GFS at 500mb valid 18z Saturday, the position of the ULL is actually back to where it was on yesterdays 12z run. It ticked East at both 18z and 00z, then back West at 06z and now at 12z. The last three runs of the GFS have also trended towards the ULL closing off sooner. The Northern stream shortwave has also slowed down considerably the last few runs. If that Southern piece can get out ahead of the trough, it will dig more, amplify the trough and we will be in business. Not saying that will happen but that's what we need at this point.

Not a chance. That was a relatively weak low that crawled because of enormous blocking.

00Z NAM is running. So far looks like less energy is being held back in the SW.

The long range NAM is fools gold with East coast storms. Doesn't matter how many times you say it.

Every time a big threat shows up people give the long range NAM more weight than they should even though every educated poster says time and time again how it cannot be trusted. In this type of setup you want the NAM beyond 48hrs to show rain for Long Island and Boston in order to feel confident. It's always overamplified and corrects inside day 2.

The NAM is going to be way East, like the GFS.

I see very subtle changes so far on the NAM. If anything the southern stream energy looks stronger than 12z.

This is what I spent nearly 10 posts trying to explain but some people just don't want to hear it. You cannot just look at the surface. The surface is for weenies.

I don't know if I would use the word most, but it was a fine run for the time frame that we're out. The GFS and the Euro are still more than 100+ miles apart in terms of how far West the significant snow gets.

As mets have said, we haven't established any trends yet. It takes at least one full day of model runs to establish that. You cannot expect models to show the same outcome each and every run. You have to look at what's going on in the mid levels and see if what's depicted makes sense. Clown maps are called what they are for a reason.

These things happen. The next run could show 30" and everyone will be sucked right back in. You would have better odds playing the lottery than attempting to predict what the weather is going to do when you have so many moving pieces.

This right here is the difference between being a weenie and an educated weather enthusiast. You cannot get over emotional or speak in absolutes. Tomorrow night if the models are still showing this is a miss then we will know it's over.

The trough is more amplified at 12z Saturday on the 12z run vs the 06z run. That wasn't necessarily reflected at the surface. This double barrel look doesn't make sense to me.

Compare the 12z GFS vs the 12z Euro at 500mb valid 12z Saturday and you will see that the two are nothing alike.

The surface isn't nearly as important as the improvements that occurred with the trough.

Don't worry as much about the position of the surface low. It still closed off at H5 over the Carolinas and the trough was more amplified. Both improvements in the upper air as compared to the 06z run. Is it what we were hoping for? Have to see the surface maps first.

You're comparing it to yesterdays 12z run.

This run is more amplified than 06z. If you don't know what you're looking at please don't comment. It just confuses everyone.

The 12z GEFS still has a decent cluster of members near the benchmark at 00z Sunday. A lot less spread overall than the previous two runs.