NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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You had said way OTS, there's a big difference between way OTS and an impending landfall in Canada.
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At 180hrs it appears headed for Canada?
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The last four runs of the GFS valid 18z Monday have all ticked ever so slightly South with each consecutive run. Small run to run changes but an undeniable trend.
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It should decrease Saturday night and be gone by Sunday morning.
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After looking rough for the last several hours, new towers are going up in the Western eyewall and the eye is looking better again.
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You can see some Southerly shear on the SW side and of course it started an ERC. The 06z HWRF indicates that Southerly shear will be present until early Sunday morning when an anti-cyclone is able to re-establish itself overhead.
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It’s not going to be purely tropical. Even 12z Euro shows it transitioning and deepening on final approach.
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Once the wind field expands it probably won't be able to get back to cat 5 but it should remain a high end major for at least the next week or so.
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Obviously, but that's not the reason for weakening in the next 5 days. The model is attempting to show the result of at least one ERC which massively expands the wind field. In fact the HAFS shows a new period of intensification beginning as the run ends. ERC... New eye emerging: ERC complete:
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Yup, and the system actually deepens while accelerating North from hrs 192 to 216. Huge wind field as well. Definitely undergoing transition on the way up. Looks like a movie I've seen before.
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12z HAFS-A. If true, Lee will probably peak in intensity on Saturday or Sunday. Check out how much the wind field increases from now until the end of the run.
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Nearly 200mph max winds if it verified.
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Latest forecast cone calls for maintaining major status through the end of the forecast period and shows a slight bend back to a more Westerly track around day 4.
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https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/1699564711287681232?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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The developing system behind Lee is the new fly in the ointment. Too many moving parts right now to make a definitive fish call. Only out to 96hrs but the EPS has been trending stronger with the ridge over the Northeast and more amplified with the incoming trough.
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Looks like at least a handful of members with a threat to LI/New England and the Southeast coast.
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12z GEFS shifted West. Even have a cluster hitting Florida.
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The trough is much shallower compared to yesterdays 12Z GFS which dug much further South. The system gets close but is never really captured.
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By 144hrs it's in nearly the same position as 06z.
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This is probably already a hurricane. Just don't have recon to confirm so still going off satellite estimates.
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https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1699233171601023038?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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We now have TS Lee.
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12z GFS was very similar.
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You would probably get tropical storm force winds all the way back to NYC with that type of track. Cape Cod would see hurricane force gusts.
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Interaction/enhancement from the trough. Wind field expands and the storm only weakens slightly.
