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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    It looks outstanding on IR loop currently. Best it has looked all day.
  2. NJwx85
    The GFS is very poor with East Coast Hurricanes. It had Sandy landfalling into ME the day before and it did poorly with some more recent ones too.
  3. NJwx85
    I haven’t seen anything out of the 18z suite that handled the PRE correctly. Even the latest HRRR busted badly.
  4. NJwx85
    The GFS is banking on a much weaker storm and that’s a big reason it’s so far East.
  5. NJwx85
    She looks ugly on IR but the core is much better defined.
  6. NJwx85
    The waters will be trending cooler however they are still running 24-26c south of LI so any weakening before landfall will be very gradual. In the end the dry air will probably be an issue if this never really deepens.
  7. NJwx85
    The Eastern side will be mostly void of convection when it gets up to LI.
  8. NJwx85
    5pm advisory was slightly East. Window for significant intensification is closing. The 12z HWRF does deepen the storm to 972mb so a cat 2 isn’t off the table yet.
  9. NJwx85
    This is close to a non event in Jersey, especially if it comes in slightly East of the current track.
  10. NJwx85
  11. NJwx85
    Typical windshield wiper affect. Models over corrected East last night and the shift back to the West has begun with the Euro. I am still thinking that the most likely landfall location is SW Suffolk.
  12. NJwx85
    I'm down in Central Florida. Have been here since Saturday. Leaving next Saturday. Go figure that we would have a better chance of a hurricane in New York while I'm away than here in Florida.
  13. NJwx85
    Anyone have velocity handy? Looks like a bit of a hook heading towards Rockland County on normal radar.
  14. NJwx85
    This was taken on 287 near Wanaque
  15. NJwx85
    I’ve seen this in the plains. It’s indicative of the enhanced low level shear.
  16. NJwx85
    Almost constant thunder but no rain or wind yet.
  17. NJwx85
    About to get pummeled here
  18. NJwx85
    That was fast Flash Flood Warning NJC003-013-031-NYC071-087-130115- /O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0017.210712T2209Z-210713T0115Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service New York NY 609 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northern Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey... Northern Essex County in northeastern New Jersey... Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey... South Central Orange County in southeastern New York... Rockland County in southeastern New York... * Until 915 PM EDT. * At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Paterson, Passaic, Wayne, Bloomfield, New City, Paramus, West Milford, Ridgewood, Monsey, Nanuet, Ramsey, Ringwood, Pompton Lakes, Suffern, Caldwell, Warwick, Sloatsburg, Hawthorne, Pearl River and Bloomingdale.
  19. NJwx85
    Big cell, severe warned, Passaic, Bergen and Rockland Counties. Almost constant thunder off on the distance here.
  20. NJwx85
    Two areas of main focus today per the latest high res models. One over Central NJ and the other over the Hudson Valley, but model skill is poor with exact placement.
  21. NJwx85
    It’s a tropical storm. You would never get this type of moisture transfer during the Winter and with the track LI would have been all rain.
  22. NJwx85
    The center is over the Chesapeake Bay. For this to miss it needs to pass 50-100 miles SE of Cape May. Don’t see that happening.
  23. NJwx85
    Flash flood warning for most of NE NJ and the LHV. Already 1.5-2.5" of rain has fallen. Flash Flood Warning CTC001-NJC003-013-031-NYC087-119-082215- /O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0010.210708T1915Z-210708T2215Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service New York NY 315 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southern Fairfield County in southern Connecticut... Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey... Northeastern Essex County in northeastern New Jersey... Eastern Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey... Rockland County in southeastern New York... Southern Westchester County in southeastern New York... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1.5 inches in 3 hours. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
  24. NJwx85
    If you believe the HWRF, a slug of 2.5+ PWAT's comes in tonight.
  25. NJwx85
    A lot more storms popping over NNJ and the LHV region. Going to be a wet afternoon and then tonight comes the main show.
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