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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Elsa is hauling now. The edge of the steady rain is about to cross into Southeast Maryland.
  2. NJwx85
    Yup, that's the storm that just went to my South.
  3. NJwx85
    Not here, looks like the heaviest part of the core went just to my South, more towards Saddle River. Now it's headed for Nyack and Westchester. Bit of a right mover.
  4. NJwx85
    Pouring here in Ramsey and severe warned.
  5. NJwx85
    I like the GFS's idea of a general 2-4" of rain almost areawide. Of course, some areas will have the potential to see more if training occurs.
  6. NJwx85
    If the center tracks West of you, pretty good chance at low end tropical storm force winds, especially on the Southern shore of Suffolk. The 12z RGEM has some 40-50kt winds for the forks for a few hours but not expecting any impacts worse than your typical strong noreaster. Main thing besides the rain that we need to be concerned about is potential for rotating storms as the bands come in off the ocean.
  7. NJwx85
    That's still the 06z run unless you have something newer. The track over the DE Bay would be similar to Isaias and would open the door for more severe weather.
  8. NJwx85
    The 12z RGEM is slightly more tucked into the coast than the previous run. It's a compromise between the 06z and 12z 3k NAM. Brings the heaviest rains into NE NJ, far SE NY and LI.
  9. NJwx85
    Just remember that the rain shield is never as compact as what the high resolution models predict. Also, the system will be interacting with the jet which will help to both ventilate the system poleward and also fan the system out.
  10. NJwx85
    It's all a timing issue with the speed of the cold front coming in Friday night. The longer the system takes it get up here the further East it will likely end up.
  11. NJwx85
    We just had a massive strike
  12. NJwx85
    Yup, hook on radar.
  13. NJwx85
    When I spoke of not hitting 7" I was mainly speaking about areas North of the city. About 3-4" here near the I-287/Palisades Parkway interchange.
  14. NJwx85
    The 18z GFS has a solid burst of snow tomorrow afternoon while the 18z 3k NAM has spotty snow at best. The 12z RGEM split the difference and looks similar to the latest long range HRRR. Hopefully models are underestimating the snow coverage and intensity tonight, otherwise nobody is getting close to the 7" that was predicted for most.
  15. NJwx85
    No, the high end is 7" so more than likely warning criteria will not be met.
  16. NJwx85
    The criteria is 7" for a warning up in that area but confidence of reaching that usually has to be at least 60%. As I have always said, doesn't matter if you have a watch/warning/advisory ect. What matters is what actually falls.
  17. NJwx85
    It's still pretty much over by Friday morning except for light snow. Same deal as what happened with the last big storm. Accumulating snows should be over with by sunrise except for far Eastern areas.
  18. NJwx85
    Subtle changes on the 18z NAM vs the 12z NAM. The warm air comes in a bit faster but it's also very close with 700mb temps maxing out at perhaps +1C. That could probably be overcome by heavier precipiptation.
  19. NJwx85
    Soundings still show places like EWR going above freezing around 700mb by 20z.
  20. NJwx85
    24-36" here and not a single flake. So yeah, ten times worse.
  21. NJwx85
    January 2015 was worse.
  22. NJwx85
    96 was all about that high. The actual surface storm was nothing special. You had a very nice 522DM ULL close off over the TN Valley and spawn a surface low that crawled up the coast. I don't believe it deepened anymore than the low 990's. Many, many hours of overrunning followed by the crawling coastal and that's how you get 30" plus over thousands of square miles.
  23. NJwx85
    Yes, another recent example was January 2015.
  24. NJwx85
    After a Winter like this, who cares?
  25. NJwx85
    Miller A's are feast or famon. It's great if you end up under the death band and horrible if you're 10 miles East.
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