NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Textbook KU. This run splits the difference and tracks the ULL over the twin forks and then SNE. It's a much better track for areas West of the Hudson and potentially brings mixing issues into Boston.
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Snowfall maps are extra useless with this storm. The models simply cannot pinpoint where the heaviest banding is going to occur so they broad brush a lot of snow. When you see totals like this, it means that you're going to see a lot of areas over 18".
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Someone is going to cook under a band of 3-5" per hour with these dynamics. Probably going to be a screw zone just West of where that sets up. The wind is also going to be factor, limiting ratios.
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This area is still going to do well. You will be measuring snow in inches however while SNE and E LI measure in feet.
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They were both miller A storms. Both had very similar 500mb setups. The difference was the incredible blocking that occurred with the 96 storm. A meteorite would have gotten stuck under that banana high.
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The only model currently showing that much snow West of the city is the Euro and we don't have the latest run yet. The problem is the track of the ULL. For the interior to do well the ULL needs to track over Long Island instead of Cape Cod.
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I wouldn't go more than 6-12" for anyone West of the Nassau County line unless things shift substantially.
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LOL at the Canadian. 952mb SE of the benchmark. Just look at how ridiculous these winds are. If it verified, it would likely bring a period of sustained hurricane force winds to cape cod and possibly the rest of SE NE with heavy snow. Just unreal model porn. Strong signal for a rapidly deepening and very damaging system. My initial thoughts are that you probably want to be East of the Hudson river for the big, big numbers but I think most of NJ and the Hudson Valley will still do really well. If you compare the more recent runs of the GFS to the ones that were showing a bigger storm further West, not much has changed with the upper air pattern. Subtle differences in timing are making big differences.
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Boxing Day was a pure Miller A.
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Embarrassing
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Yup, right up there with March 2001 which many on here are too young to remember.
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Miller A's always have a narrow jackpot zone with a major screw zone just to the NW of wherever that sets up. See 1/26-1/27 2015 and to a certain extent 12/26/10 as examples. It doesn't get any sharper than this.
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Strong storm signal. Reminds me of 1/26-1/27 2015.
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Never said 12 hours of snow. Said a good thumping for a few hours if I recall correctly.
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Snowed moderately at my location in SE Rockland County from 8pm to 1am. Finished with about 3” before the changeover. It thumped for a good 3 hours.
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Yes we're all aware of the strong LLJ but that CAD signature over the Hudson Valley is no joke. Perhaps 15 miles inland was a little bullish, but I think a lot of areas North of 287 and west of the GSP have a better chance of just drying up due to the proximity of the mid level lows rather than flip to rain. NYC South and East is a completely different ballgame unless things change drastically.
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I'm not saying that the warm air and eventual dry slot don't win out in the end but you're going to have several hours of snow inland before this happens. Look at those dew points over SNE on Sunday. Yes it's departing but you have a solid cold, dry airmass in place ahead of the storm.
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For who? Not for Long Island or most of NYC but it's snow once you get 15 miles inland. Check the soundings. Doesn't flip over till the end.
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I wonder how much of the low level warming would be mitigated by strong dynamics in this setup. Either way by the time it gets warm enough for rain most of the precip has already fallen unless you're on the immediate coast.
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Quick dry slot this run. About 12 hours of front end snow followed by dry slot as the low jumps from near DC to the benchmark. It almost looks like a late developing miller B. Need the mid level centers to pass offshore to have a chance at the back end CCB.
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Very little change so far with the 18z GFS through 00z Monday.
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Thanks. Family and work occupy most of my time these days but it's still fun to come on here when something significant is on the table. The recent trends from the GFS has been promising. Don't see anyone around here getting into double digit snowfall but this could easily be the biggest event so far this season for many.
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The fact that the 18z NAM has the low centered over DC at hr 84 is a good sign. It's normally way overamped at that range. I would be worried if it showed the low near Pittsburg but this has last minute shift Southeast written all over it. Quick thump over to a mix/rain along the immediate coast then dry slot. Further inland, longer thump and then eventual mixing/dry slot. This is an old fashioned North and West of 287 snowstorm, but still likely at least a solid 6 hour front end thump for the city.
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It still shows very strong winds aloft in the early morning hours and not much of an inversion.
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The rain is advancing gradually Westward from Suffolk. Based on the latest HRRR another 1-2" coming for most, especially from NE NJ into the LHV, CT and Long Island.
