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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    My thinking today is that the heaviest totals will end up just N&W of 95. The ULL is forecasted to be much further North than yesterday.
  2. NJwx85
  3. NJwx85
    Some encouraging trends with the 12z suite but it's questionable as to how far back the pendulum can swing in this setup.
  4. NJwx85
    Things can always change. No absolutes in meteorology. But you also can't disregard the trends.
  5. NJwx85
    It's very hard to get significant precip up here when you have a positively tilted trough. You can thank the confluence over Northern New England for this. The GFS underplayed the extent of the blocking. The setup now definitely favors the DC to Philly corridor.
  6. NJwx85
    What a death band if the GGEM was actually considered to be a reliable model that didn't belong in the dumpster.
  7. NJwx85
    Unless the models are overplaying the confluence to the North this is close to game over North of NYC. Two days ago the GFS had the 700mb low exiting off the NJ coast, now it comes off the coast in Virginia.
  8. NJwx85
    It's a great storm for areas from I-78 South and a nail bitter for areas further North.
  9. NJwx85
    Lots of wraparound snows on Tuesday with the occluding low.
  10. NJwx85
    It's still an inch plus of liquid from about I-78 South.
  11. NJwx85
    The UKIE was a complete whiff. The Euro is not as far North as the GFS but it's nowhere near the UKMET.
  12. NJwx85
    It's still a pretty good run for NYC proper but a sharp cutoff for NW areas.
  13. NJwx85
    Congrats Central Jersey on the Euro. Almost nothing on Sunday and the coastal moves East much faster.
  14. NJwx85
    The Euro looks South so far.
  15. NJwx85
    I love the Jersey shore but it's not an ideal place to be during a snowstorm in NYC. Usually if it's going to snow big in South Jersey areas further North miss out or are fringed.
  16. NJwx85
    The last few winters have been a correction back towards the norm and away from the anomaly that was the last 10+ years.
  17. NJwx85
    If you live on the ocean you should expect mixing issues period. It comes with the territory.
  18. NJwx85
    Weenies see a low that's tucked into the coast and automatically assume dry/warm issues. That's not always the case. If something goes wrong with this forecast it won't be because of the surface low being tucked in.
  19. NJwx85
    It looks completely out to lunch and at this point should be dismissed as an outlier.
  20. NJwx85
    The precipitation on Sunday and Sunday night is driven by warm air advection. Basically running warm, moist air up over cold, dry air resulting in lift. No real threat for warm air intrusion because by the time the low gets close enough, the coastal storm takes over and flips winds to out of the Northeast. Any mixing issues in our area should be minimal unless the surface low doesn't develop fast enough. Overall this is a pretty good setup for big snow in our area. Great cold air source and long duration. Synoptically it's very close to some of our biggest snowstorms of all time.
  21. NJwx85
    The reason why the snow coverage looks spotty on the GFS after 00z Monday is because the storm has peaked by then and is starting to fill and weaken. That's what happens when you get a vertically stacked storm. This isn't a rapidly deepening Miller A that's coming up from the South. #knowyourstorm
  22. NJwx85
    Awful post after awful post here today. Read more, post less. Look at soundings before you make accusations about dry air. The column is completely saturated until early Tuesday morning when the surface low starts to pull away. The mid-level centers are what's bringing us the strong precip Monday afternoon and Monday night. If they end up further East, they will take the precip with them. Dew points are running about 10 degrees colder than surface temps through the height of the storm. You're going to have plenty of room to wet bulb if the CCB cranks like it's supposed to.
  23. NJwx85
    I know it's tempting to jump all in on this one but just remember that we're still over three days out. A lot is going to change between now and then. And with miller B's you're always going to have a screw zone where the low jumps from the Ohio Valley to off the coast. We're fortunate that the mid level centers develop tucked into the coast. It brings the mixing line North but it's our only shot at seeing big numbers on Monday night.
  24. NJwx85
    Everyone is in for several hours of overrunning on Sunday night and Monday morning before any hint of a warm layer. If you live on the immediate coast, you're going to have mixing issues. It shouldn't be surprising, it's the case with almost every storm.
  25. NJwx85
    Love these long duration events. 12z GFS has snow falling from roughly Sunday early afternoon until Tuesday morning. Nothing real crazy in terms of dynamics but the 700mb low forms in exactly the ideal position brining the heaviest, steadiest snows on Monday afternoon.
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