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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Does the NAM wear Nike's?
  2. NJwx85
    I guess it depends on the location of the sounding. I looked just NW of the city.
  3. NJwx85
  4. NJwx85
    You literally cherry picked the warmest panel. It's a little dicey 00-04z but the warm layer gets pushed back.
  5. NJwx85
    Look how the CAD is keeping NE NJ, SE NY and LI heavy snow
  6. NJwx85
    The 18z NAM is not horrid, stop posting bad/wrong information.
  7. NJwx85
    That’s what she said.
  8. NJwx85
    5.9” per hour
  9. NJwx85
    Oh for Christs sake it's called New Jersey. Have some respect.
  10. NJwx85
    Warm air advection to about Philly which matches the current radar well.
  11. NJwx85
    What is jerz?
  12. NJwx85
    If you read the comments for that tweet I posted it's full of people saying that they expected a good front end dump and instead ended up with a lot of ZR/IP. I'm not saying that necessarily translates up here but it does indicate the level of warming aloft. Cold air damming only keeps the surface cold.
  13. NJwx85
    What? This is how much precip falls between 12z and 18z. After 18z nothing. So even if it does hold on it's over by early afternoon at the latest.
  14. NJwx85
    But that band isn't stationary. It progresses North and then the dry slot comes in right afterwards. Yes, it's going to snow heavily, just think people need to curb expectations some. Hope I'm wrong. If NYC gets 14" it probably means that I get over 20".
  15. NJwx85
    I don't think anyone down here is getting 3" per hour rates for four hours. Maybe very briefly during the peak. Do you have any concept as to how rare 3" per hour rates for 4 straight hours is? We don't have good dynamics, just basic warm air advection.
  16. NJwx85
  17. NJwx85
    The 12z RGEM looked good to me. Less profound of a dry slot and doesn't really shut off precip until around 12-13Z.
  18. NJwx85
    I think Northern Manhattan, Northern Queens and the Bronx are going to get close to 10". I don't see how SI, Southern Queens, Lower Manhattan or Brooklyn gets to 10" without a big surprise.
  19. NJwx85
    The only way that most of NYC is going to see a double digit snowfall from this storm is if it comes in much stronger and earlier than expected or if the models are wrong about the dry slot/mixing coming in around midnight.
  20. NJwx85
    Look at the CAD signature all the way down into Southern VA. This airmass is well locked in.
  21. NJwx85
    Based on current radar trends Washington DC should be reporting snow soon. Historically speaking we should expect snow about 4 hours after that happens. So my guess is a start time of around 2-3PM from SW to NE.
  22. NJwx85
    I'm gong with a third of that. It's too short of a duration for snow. You would need 3-4" per hour rates to achieve 18".
  23. NJwx85
    I'm going with 5-8" at Central Park. Totals will increase dramatically North of the GWB. I'm expecting a quick thump of 1-2" per hour rates from about 4PM to midnight and then a flip to sleet and dry slot for the coastal plain. The dry slot probably makes it about as far inland as the Rockland/Orange County border would be my guess. NW of that line will see the 12"+ amounts although the Hudson Valley could also get into that range if the track ends up slightly further South. I'm not so much worried about the sleet as I am the dry tongue above 700mb.
  24. NJwx85
    Remember, it could always be worse. You could live in DC.
  25. NJwx85
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