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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    The best thing you can do is try to understand why the models are doing what they are doing. You have warm air advection attempting to plow into a dome of cold, dry air to our North courtesy of the 1038mb high. Even without the coastal storm you would have several inches of snow just from the normal processes involved with running warm moist air up over cold dry air. Whenever you have a coastal you need to see where the mid-level centers, particularly 700 and 850mb track. If they get too close to the coast, then that's where you end up with mixing issues. I honestly don't see that happening. Most models bring the storm up to about ACY before kicking it East.
  2. NJwx85
    I'm in Clarkstown, NY now. It's part of Rockland County. I'm only about 15 minutes East from where I used to live. It shouldn't have a major impact in a storm like this.
  3. NJwx85
    It always amazes me that guys that have been on here for longer than I have still fall for this storm after storm. I'm on here over 10 years now. You're never going to get every model run to spit out an identical run, run after run. Often times you have a drastic change after the pieces come on shore but that seems to be happening less and less lately.
  4. NJwx85
    It's Monday morning and the storm isn't supposed to start until late Wednesday afternoon. Watches typically aren't hoisted until 36-48 hours prior to the start. I'm sure if everything holds you will see watches with the afternoon update.
  5. NJwx85
    I'm pumped, kind of wish I was still living in Mahwah for this one.
  6. NJwx85
    All of this back and forth is just typical model noise. This has honestly been one of the most consistently tracked storms that I can remember. Aside from the GFS we have excellent agreement on a wide swath of 12-18" from I-95 and points NW. Central NJ coast into Eastern Long Island could have some mixing issues but honestly I think most areas will be fine. Just have to understand that not everybody is going to get over 20" of snow.
  7. NJwx85
    That 4.8" in one hour is going to be crazy. The best dynamics are always just NW of the rain/snow line.
  8. NJwx85
  9. NJwx85
    Why do people still look at the GFS for coastal storms?
  10. NJwx85
    Sorry I stopped looking after I saw the 37.2” at MMU. Talk about pitching a tent.
  11. NJwx85
    That’s 96 type numbers there.
  12. NJwx85
    Lock it in baby.
  13. NJwx85
    Hell no
  14. NJwx85
    Winds there strong are going to limit ratios somewhat.
  15. NJwx85
  16. NJwx85
    Snow is snow but often times when you have confluence like that the extent of the Northern cutoff is even sharper than forecasted. I have PTSD from many of these similar events.
  17. NJwx85
    The GFS and its ensembles are on their own. The NAM is not even worth looking at right now. The GGEM and Euro combo also has the UKMET.
  18. NJwx85
    Not liking the trends today for us folks North of I80.
  19. NJwx85
    Wow that’s ugly up here.
  20. NJwx85
    I'm on board. Storm correlates well with NAO dip and well placed high to the North. Have to be careful though or this could easily end up passing Southeast. The trough is neutral at best until the ULL closes off and by then it's past us.
  21. NJwx85
    Okay it was a massive bust for anyone in NJ and the LHV. And it was still a bust for points East of the city when you consider the forecasts.
  22. NJwx85
    I'm in Southeast Rockland County now so it's not much of a difference but yes it did get a tad wetter.
  23. NJwx85
    It's similar to the NAM. Puts snow back into the game for NW CT. But it's negligible for the majority of our forum outside of Eastern LI which looks to have quite the wind driven rain event.
  24. NJwx85
    Many on here might be too young to remember March 2001. Models weren't as good as they are now and forecast two days out was for several feet of snow. Ended up with a few inches of mostly slop. But nothing compares to the January 2015 blizzard. Calls for 2-3 feet the day before the storm hit. Forecast: Reality:
  25. NJwx85
    Some slight improvements on the 3K 12z NAM from the 06z run but no real significant impact changes except for Eastern Long Island which seems locked in for a driving rain storm.
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