NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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The NAM is way over amped, exactly where you’d expect it to be.
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Very unreliable.
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Trending towards GFS again. Not good.
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That’s the same as 12z was.
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GFS still had a major event.
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You're correct about it being the wrong run. I wouldn't necessarily say warmer.
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18z NAM starting to pick up on the ice threat.
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I don't think of areas North of 84 as part of this subforum but yes you're correct.
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Not until after 18z when most of the precip is over.
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A compromise between the GFS and EURO would be close to a worse case scenario for us.
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Big trend towards the GFS this run. Colder surface but mid-levels remain warm. Just an FYI, you need the warm air aloft to get the precip in the first place. If the mid levels trend colder there will be much less precip. Bottom line, virtually no chance of this ending up as a snow event for us.
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The 12z NAM was still well out of range but it's at the point where you would expect it to be, over amped and warm. But it's actually not that warm. Look at those surface temps. 32 degrees where it's showing plain rain and temperatures only go down from here.
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Hopefully the NWS doesn't down play this and gets the warnings out early so that most people stay home and the roadways can be properly treated.
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If the GFS is correct, the surface is already down to the lower 20's by 06z Saturday for the Hudson Valley and interior NNJ. 32 degrees in NYC and drops from there. The heaviest precip falls after 06z.
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The coast actually has a potential to see more ZR than the far interior because the colder air is filtering in and that will eventually change over to more sleet the farther NW you get.
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The 12z Saturday morning panel is even worse. The far interior flips to sleet with the mid levels cooling but the city flips to ice.
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The soundings for the 12z GFS support mostly freezing rain North of I-78 in NJ and the Hudson Valley beginning between 00z and 06z Friday. Just look at 850mb temps compared to the surface and it's easy to see why the GFS is painting such a horrid picture.
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This isn't your typical SWFE setup with retreating cold.
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It’s too early for the NAM. Need to wait till tomorrow night.
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This is kind of a unique setup for us. Usually the cold air is departing. This is the setup you normally see over the Southern plains or TN Valley.
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Going with the Euro I presume.
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I updated the thread title. If some areas do see snow it will likely be at the very end and not amount to much unless things shift dramatically.
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Never use the Kuchera in a setup like this. Ratios will be god awful unless you're well upstate.
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18z GFS freezing rain.
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The soundings for the 18z GFS show a very prominent warm push between 700 and 900mb. I highly doubt most of what it shows falling as snow would be snow in actuality. More likely to be sleet.
