NJwx85

The 18z 3k NAM has two lines moving through the area, one around 00z and the next one at 06z. The line moving through CT smacks Suffolk.

I just counted six different supercells moving through Southern NY.

So this post couldn't be any more wrong. The atmosphere is plenty unstable. Just a matter of storm motion.

Did you know that the NY metro doesn't end at 96th street in Manhattan?

Meh SEL7 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Connecticut Southeast New York and Long Island Southern Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Cluster of embedded supercells will spread from the Lower Hudson Valley across southwest New England with a risk for all severe hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Poughkeepsie NY to 30 miles southeast of Block Island RI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Looks like the main threat area will be the Hudson Valley, but we could also get some severe into Northeastern NJ and Long Island.

Yes but the more Eastern track also appears to have somewhat spared the more heavily populated areas in and near Lake Charles.

Impressive 3k NAM sounding

Who can remember the last time we were in a hatched zone?

The warm front has to move through and clear things out. Convection this afternoon should be isolated thanks to the EML that will move through. 06z 3k NAM soundings indicate SBCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/KG by 18z. Modest shear values along with steep lapse rates and instability should support the development of multicellular activity and isolated super cells. Main threats will be unusually large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two. Certainly understand why SPC has had our area in an enhanced risk.

Luckily it would at least appear based on preliminary reports that the surge forecast was a bit overdone. The track ended up slightly further East in the end which may have spared some areas.

Double trouble part deuce?

Apparently it doesn’t matter if the center hits the TX/LA border because it’s “sparsely populated”.

Radar was more bark than bite up here in NW Bergen County. Most of the lightning was ahead of the storm. Had one decent wind gust below severe limits and 10 minutes of heavy rain.

Euro is a bit further NW when it nears our area, but still well South and East. We would need the system to track to our North in order to get significant wind impacts, and even then it would be dependent on deep convection mixing down the strong winds aloft.

The 12z HMON would be a significant rainstorm up here. Decent winds at 850mb as well. Still looks rather mundane at the surface although it does have some 30-40kt wind potential along the coast for a period of time.

It's going to be transitioning into an extra-tropical storm. The guidance is showing a deepening system once it reaches the TN Valley, but that's due to baroclinic forcing and not processes that normally are associated with deepening tropical systems. The trough is positively tilted in this case so most of the bad weather associated with the surface low should be South of our area. If the track ends up further North it could get slightly more interesting.

12z HWRF quite a bit further South with the low exiting the coast near VA Beach. Rains confined mostly to the Mid-Atlantic.

The 00z UKMET had 3-5" totals.

We could get quite the soaking depending on what track ends up verifying. Right now I would hedge the majority of the heaviest rains falling over Southern NJ and the mid-Atlantic. If you look at the soundings from the HWRF, they show a lot of mid-level dry air North of I-78.

Looks like Saturday afternoon and evening might be a washout. Other than that don't see wind being much of a factor. The storm does intensify as a hybrid or possibly sub-tropical storm once off the coast but the wind looks to be confined to areas South and East of the center, largely staying offshore.

Lol https://imgur.com/a/wRtzqZ3