Jump to content

NJwx85

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    19,256

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    You guys put way, way too much weight towards the NAM. It's a short term model designed for forecasting convection, not a complex tropical system that's transitioning and interacting with a trough. The rain isn't going to be confined to that one consolidated area. You're going to see multiple bands on the Eastern side. Just look at the current radar situation over the Mid-Atlantic. That MCS pushing into DC is non-existent on the NAM.
  2. NJwx85
    LOL
  3. NJwx85
    Very slight shift East with the 18z spaghetti models. Mean track still over NJ.
  4. NJwx85
    Normally you have an inversion over land but that’s not the case here. Also the track is unusual.
  5. NJwx85
    I was in Atlantic County after the 2010 derecho which we foolishly rode out in an RV. Was the scariest night of my life weather related. Complete war zone the next day.
  6. NJwx85
    These extra-tropical or transitioning storms have proven to be quite the big ticket items around here.
  7. NJwx85
    Yikes
  8. NJwx85
    Agreed but you just never know. Huge blowup of convection currently to the North and NW of the center. The change in directional shear is allowing this to have one last gasp. Radar is a bit long range but looks like it may have closed off an "eyewall" again.
  9. NJwx85
    12Z UKMET rain totals
  10. NJwx85
    Overdone by how much? Cut them in half and you have widespread 50-70mph gusts.
  11. NJwx85
    Is this real?
  12. NJwx85
    Models are tightly clustered on taking the center near Philly. Difference then is does it continue on a NNE heading into Upstate NY which would deliver the winds or does it take more of an Easterly pivot which would kick the wind potential East of the city?
  13. NJwx85
    12z HWRF has a period of 50-60kts for Sandy Hook, NY Harbor and 40-45kts for Southern Queens, Brooklyn and SI. Elsewhere sustained winds look to be in the 20-30kt range which I personally think is a bit underdone compared to model consensus.
  14. NJwx85
    Don’t be surprised if they hoist hurricane watches for LI. Several models are showing gust potential up to 65kts.
  15. NJwx85
    You can already see the rain shield fanning out and extending Northward. Center is just East of Saint Mary’s, GA and the steady rain is approaching Myrtle Beach.
  16. NJwx85
    The current structure or appearance of the storm while it’s still down in the tropics has little if any impacts on what’s going to happen up here, unless the system had dissipated which clearly it hasn’t.
  17. NJwx85
  18. NJwx85
  19. NJwx85
    NAM has a fairly intense looking line coming through tonight from South to North.
  20. NJwx85
    Hate using the NAM for anything tropical, but it does show some intense winds making it fairly far inland.
  21. NJwx85
    I'm really not that far inland. If I take a three minute drive down Rt 17 I can see the city.
  22. NJwx85
    I'm in Mahwah, which is upper Bergen County. I'm not trying to mitigate the severity of the storm, especially for those just along the coast. I'm just not totally convinced yet that the winds on the modeling will be fully realized. Usually we end up with an inversion and that requires deep convection to overcome, but I also understand that we should have solid mixing East of the low track so who knows. Just a low confidence forecast IMO. Forward speed should also play a role.
  23. NJwx85
    Satellite loop shows this is already beginning to interact with the trough. I'm liking the idea of slow intensification today since the shear vector should actually help to ventilate the system now.
  24. NJwx85
    Right, but if the center tracks over the city or just West, wondering if this is limited to LI?
  25. NJwx85
    Shear has calmed down some, but still running in the 25-30kt range. Probably not going to have much of a window for intensification before landfall. After landfall in the Carolina's, it will be over land for much of the rest of its existence, so no ability to ride the gulf stream up.
×
×
  • Create New...