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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    I’m right on the SW flank. Really awesome structure for this area.
  2. NJwx85
    SVR warned here for quarter sized hail. Storm looks nasty. Great structure to my North.
  3. NJwx85
    Remember the good old days when cutoff lows on the East coast didn’t trend hundreds of miles West and it would actually rain for 2 or 3 days straight as modeled three days out?
  4. NJwx85
    Out in Smithtown getting clipped by severe warned cell. Decent rain, thunder and lightning. No wind or hail.
  5. NJwx85
    Had a few sprinkles today and that was it. Heaviest rain fell overnight last night into this morning. That was it. Sun was actually out here most of the afternoon. Only lightning I saw this week was from the decaying squall line Thursday.
  6. NJwx85
    Sun is out here lol
  7. NJwx85
    Looks like just some elevated convection. Good amount of lightning though.
  8. NJwx85
    Good shot at thunderstorms around midnight tonight.
  9. NJwx85
  10. NJwx85
    Decent storm here. Very little lightning. Impressive wind and rain.
  11. NJwx85
    The activity near Elmira has a chance of making it here in a few hours.
  12. NJwx85
    Not bad for about 500-1000 J/KG of SBCAPE. Goes to show you what strong shear and good mid-level lapse rates can do. If we can destabilize some behind this line we have a shot at some severe later with plenty of old outflow boundaries hanging around and potential cold pool.
  13. NJwx85
    DOX is showing the line nicely. Approaching the NJ coast now.
  14. NJwx85
    The latest run of the HRRR has two broken lines swinging through during the early part of the evening. Development occurs over Upstate NY after the current MCS moves out.
  15. NJwx85
    The Northern part of the line is probably going to clip us but the severe portion is from Allentown and points South. We'll see if anything develops further Northeast. The best mid-level lapse rates are right a long the coast.
  16. NJwx85
    It's a fast moving squall line so less rain makes sense. Looks like the EML has made it up into at least the Southern tier of NY and the Western Hudson Valley so that's a good sign. The storms should ride the Northern periphery of the instability axis.
  17. NJwx85
    MCS's tend to dive Southeastward so even Central NJ might be too far North if the things don't develop into at least Western NY.
  18. NJwx85
    You can see how far off the 06z NAM is
  19. NJwx85
    Based on current radar, that band looks like it needs to be shifted 50-100 miles South.
  20. NJwx85
    That line is already looking fierce in NW PA.
  21. NJwx85
    Storm kinda skipped right over me here. Last week it looked like 3-4 days of rain with several inches. Rained here for about 5 minutes around 5:00 and that was it. Terrible mid range modeling continues.
  22. NJwx85
    Thunder and lightning here
  23. NJwx85
    Plenty of SBCAPE and shear to go around. Only real missing component for severe is less than great mid-level lapse rates. We shall see if the lift makes it far enough East before we lose instability.
  24. NJwx85
    Cleared out with full sunshine and mostly clear skies here.
  25. NJwx85
    Upper 80’s in the forecast here for next week. Just in time for met Summer.
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