NJwx85

Correct me if I'm wrong, isn't sub-tropical when the center is in the mid-levels instead of at the surface? I believe in this case we have a closed surface low or the NHC wouldn't have named it as a TS.

Special Marine Warning ANZ451-471-472-101400- /O.NEW.KPHI.MA.W.0070.200710T1234Z-200710T1400Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 834 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm... Outer waters from Manasquan Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 to 40 nm... * Until 1000 AM EDT. * At 834 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located 25 nm southeast of Garden State North Reef, moving northwest at 30 knots. HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts to 40 knots. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. * Locations impacted include... Beach Haven, Barnegat Light, North Beach Haven, Garden State North Reef, Ship Bottom, Barnegat Light Reef, Garden State South Reef, Harvey Cedars and Forked River. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall take priority. Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be followed. Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor immediately. && LAT...LON 3925 7359 3958 7437 3989 7410 3939 7346 TIME...MOT...LOC 1234Z 128DEG 30KT 3935 7362 WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE HAIL...0.00IN WIND...40KTS

Not sure what you were expecting. It's a 45kt storm off of VA Beach in early July. Not exactly what I would call a conducive environment for a deep tropical system.

Surprised nobody posted this:

I'm thinking that the HRRR is out to lunch. Have you seen the radar? Daytime heating is only going to add more fuel to the fire.

Yes it does, post the next frame. Moves NW. But I’m sure you were so excited to say I was wrong that you missed that detail.

18z HMON was a solid hit for the entire region.

18z HWRF takes the center West of Philly.

Recon is in the storm.

Agreed, just wanted to point out that even though the convection is currently East of the center, it's not meaningful at this point and something you would expect with a developing warm core low.

Regardless as to the exact track of the low, the rain made it much further into PA than the prior run. It's going to matter with such a compact system.

It shifted West of the previous run for sure.

12z HWRF

12z HWRF is west and slower. Center is in Maryland at 15z Friday instead of SW NJ.

Because it’s tropical. If this was a cold core system it would be on the NW side. Once it moves North it will shift to the North and NW of the track.

Another garbage model lol.

12z HWRF is running now. That will be telling of any East trends.

The only non junk model in the East camp was the 00z Euro.

It should be ventilated by the trough building into the Ohio Valley. Good timing as a day later and it would have kicked it OTS instead.

Why are people using mesoscale models for tropical? I’m surprised the NAM isn’t showing a hurricane. The latest run of the HWRF has landfall in SW NJ 15z Friday with a ton of rain in banding for the area. Agree that it’s a fast mover but PWAT’s approach 3” for about a 6 hour period. System will be juiced and winds are decently strong aloft so any stronger convection could help mix down strong gusts. And since system will be driving up the Gulf Stream, it’s possible that it will be deepening as it approaches.