NJwx85

I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here. 12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.

Thunderstorms are erupting in NE PA West of Allentown.

Truly feels like a Summer day in FL today.

I’m not rooting for tornadoes or damage, but as a weather enthusiast it’s interesting. We have zero control over it anyway.

Every recent tornado watch here has been a major bust. Hopefully this one isn’t as disappointing.

Should be a good deal of rain out ahead of the core as it interacts with the trough which will draw the moisture poleward. The actual core should be intense but it’s a very fast mover. I think rain totals might be in the 3-5” range, unless the PRE is more intense than it currently looks.

Keep in mind that at least up here, it will be a transitioning system so the fact that it’s a disaster now has little impact on what we can expect here unless it completely dissipates.

This is the best analog that I can find. I think it's pretty similar. Only difference is that it stayed just off Hispanolia instead of grazing it.

I’m currently thinking that wind on the coast might be a problem, especially over E LI. West of the track should be lots of rain but it was so dry for so long we should still be in decent shape flooding wise unless we get 8”+ in ~10 hours like we did in Irene.

The storm is really hauling and if it ends up much more intense than predicted it could be a legitimate hurricane near LI.

Luckily the Northern side of Ohau is sparsely populated.

Storm coverage is starting to increase. Atmosphere still is unstable.

Unlikely that the core would be able to cross the mountainous terrain of the big island in tact like it shows. If it did manage to make it across in tact, once past the big island it would encounter increasing ocean temperatures.

Right over the warmest waters currently. As soon at it crosses 15N the water cools dramatically. The best shot of a major landfall in the islands is from the South.

Total dud non event here. Some lightning and light rain. The only time we get decent storms around here anymore are during the early morning hours.

DOA here. Too far North. Story of the year IMBY.

I can see the backside of the cell that's up near I-84 now. Looks fairly benign. The main part of the line is approaching Allentown and continues to fill in to the North, so hopefully things hold together. SPC mesoanalyis indicates roughly 3000-3500 J/KG of SBCAPE in place and strong low level lapse rates coupled with 30-40kts of effective bulk shear. Should be enough to sustain the line with damaging winds possible. This isolated activity ahead of the line should also leave behind some boundaries which could locally enhance activity. Strongest storm currently looks like a discrete cell in the Catskills which appears to be a right mover. Depending on exact trajectory and intensity it could make it down into parts of the Hudson Valley.

That cell is right on the edge of the stronger shear. Most of that is located further North and East over Upstate NY and Western New England. Thinking that we need to wait for the line in PA for anything significant.

Chance at a few supercells with discrete activity ahead of the main line. One such SVR warned cell moving through Sussex County now. The main line is centered over Central/Eastern PA and most intense area is currently focused on the DC area with developing MCS feature. Further development should continue and multiple rounds of convection are possible from late this afternoon into the first part of the night. Latest HRRR soundings indicate only about 1500-1800 J/KG of SBCAPE around 23-00z which looks severely underdone based on current observations below.

Your location worked to your disadvantage as the heaviest bands didn’t quite make it that far into interior NNJ.

Still pouring here.

Took a long time to get here and things should be wrapping up soon, but expectations have been met here. Not much in the way of wind, but enough to sweep the rain and give it the tropical feel.

Looks like the center is onshore. Rain shield has begun falling apart. Still a solid band extending from LI Sound into the Poconos and Western NY.

Nearest reporting station to my location. Unofficial (3.6") as of about 30 minutes ago. 11:51 AM 75 F 73 F 94 % ENE 10 mph 17 mph 29.87 in 0.1 in Rain 12:01 PM 75 F 73 F 94 % ENE 7 mph 0 mph 29.86 in 0.0 in Rain 12:51 PM 75 F 73 F 94 % NE 13 mph 0 mph 29.85 in 0.1 in Rain 1:51 PM 75 F 72 F 90 % ENE 14 mph 23 mph 29.81 in 0.2 in Heavy Rain 1:53 PM 74 F 72 F 93 % ENE 14 mph 23 mph 29.81 in 0.0 in T-Storm 2:00 PM 74 F 72 F 93 % ENE 12 mph 24 mph 29.81 in 0.1 in Heavy T-Storm 2:23 PM 74 F 72 F 93 % NE 12 mph 21 mph 29.79 in 0.3 in Heavy T-Storm 2:37 PM 74 F 72 F 93 % NE 13 mph 21 mph 29.77 in 0.4 in Rain 2:51 PM 74 F 72 F 93 % ENE 14 mph 23 mph 29.77 in 0.5 in Heavy Rain 3:19 PM 74 F 72 F 93 % ENE 15 mph 23 mph 29.75 in 0.5 in Heavy Rain 3:51 PM 74 F 72 F 93 % E 13 mph 20 mph 29.72 in 0.9 in Heavy Rain 3:53 PM 74 F 72 F 93 % ENE 14 mph 20 mph 29.72 in 0.0 in Heavy Rain 4:00 PM 74 F 72 F 93 % ENE 14 mph 24 mph 29.72 in 0.2 in Heavy Rain 4:08 PM 74 F 72 F 93 % ENE 14 mph 26 mph 29.71 in 0.3 in Heavy Rain