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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Just because you can show me a model run that has a foot for I-84 means that it's going to happen. I hope we all get slammed but when you have a blocking high like that to the North the snow can only come so far North. I still have nightmares from February 2010.
  2. NJwx85
    The gradient is going to be sharper than what the models indicate. Cannot tell you how many times recently that I was on the fringe and got absolutely nothing.
  3. NJwx85
    You're going to go from 12" to 2" over a very short distance and that's going to be close to the line I indicated. Keep in mind the dew points are based on the 12z Euro so you can use your model of choice. Nobody knows for sure where exactly the snow stops, but the model consensus is just North of I-84.
  4. NJwx85
    Yeah, significant totals. Nothing approaching 18" like what you will see close to I-80.
  5. NJwx85
    I think you're find as long as you're South of 84. Once North of there you'll get some snow but it won't be like further South.
  6. NJwx85
    If you want to know where the cutoff is, you can pretty much just follow the dewpoints. The 10 degree dew point line is probably close to where the brick wall sets up.
  7. NJwx85
    That's because the timing is different within the individual members.
  8. NJwx85
    It's extremely difficult to get high amounts of precipitation to fall when you're ramming moisture into brick wall of dense, dry air. We would have received higher amounts if the coastal had been stronger due to stronger dynamics.
  9. NJwx85
    Be careful with the extent of the totals on the Northern edge. At some point the precip hits a brick wall and you're going to see totals diminish from a foot plus to nothing over about 50 miles.
  10. NJwx85
    We've known that this was going to be the case since Saturday.
  11. NJwx85
    I really don't see sleet being much of an issue honestly. Once the coastal develops it should flip the winds around to northeasterly and you will have some dynamic cooling as the low slowly deepens. This storm reminds me so much of a slightly more progressive version of PDII. It even looks similar at H5.
  12. NJwx85
    This is probably not your storm but I could be wrong. I don't think North of 84 sees warning level snows.
  13. NJwx85
    This is one of the most straightforward forecasts that I can remember for a snowstorm. 12-18" areawide except for slightly less on the South facing shore of Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens and SI which will probably mix at the end. Those areas should still see 6"+. We'll probably get a narrow band of 18"+ but it's too early to know exactly where that's going to setup.
  14. NJwx85
    General rule of thumb, in early. out early. It might be pretty much over by 1-2AM on Thursday.
  15. NJwx85
    It has the 700mb low closing off over Eastern PA so it almost chokes off the coastal with a mid-level dry punch after the initial WAA.
  16. NJwx85
    It's the NAM, but it brings mixing issues pretty far inland. Warm punch at 700mb makes it up to about TPZ bridge.
  17. NJwx85
    Why would you move from Ridgewood to Astoria?
  18. NJwx85
    Most of the general public doesn't even understand the difference between an advisory, watch or warning. It should be self explanatory that a warning would be the highest level of concern but it doesn't register.
  19. NJwx85
    We had a storm on Christmas Day, I think it was 2002 where we had a thunderstorm come through with heavy rain, lightning and dime sized hail at my parents house in Northern, NJ. After the storm passed it changed over to snow and I think we finished with around 8". One of the few storms that I remember that started as rain and ended as significant snow.
  20. NJwx85
    Yup exactly. Wonder if we'll get the very rare, yet slightly overrated blizzard watch with this one.
  21. NJwx85
    The best thing you can do is try to understand why the models are doing what they are doing. You have warm air advection attempting to plow into a dome of cold, dry air to our North courtesy of the 1038mb high. Even without the coastal storm you would have several inches of snow just from the normal processes involved with running warm moist air up over cold dry air. Whenever you have a coastal you need to see where the mid-level centers, particularly 700 and 850mb track. If they get too close to the coast, then that's where you end up with mixing issues. I honestly don't see that happening. Most models bring the storm up to about ACY before kicking it East.
  22. NJwx85
    I'm in Clarkstown, NY now. It's part of Rockland County. I'm only about 15 minutes East from where I used to live. It shouldn't have a major impact in a storm like this.
  23. NJwx85
    It always amazes me that guys that have been on here for longer than I have still fall for this storm after storm. I'm on here over 10 years now. You're never going to get every model run to spit out an identical run, run after run. Often times you have a drastic change after the pieces come on shore but that seems to be happening less and less lately.
  24. NJwx85
    It's Monday morning and the storm isn't supposed to start until late Wednesday afternoon. Watches typically aren't hoisted until 36-48 hours prior to the start. I'm sure if everything holds you will see watches with the afternoon update.
  25. NJwx85
    I'm pumped, kind of wish I was still living in Mahwah for this one.
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