NJwx85

Who can remember the last time we were in a hatched zone?

The warm front has to move through and clear things out. Convection this afternoon should be isolated thanks to the EML that will move through. 06z 3k NAM soundings indicate SBCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/KG by 18z. Modest shear values along with steep lapse rates and instability should support the development of multicellular activity and isolated super cells. Main threats will be unusually large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two. Certainly understand why SPC has had our area in an enhanced risk.

Luckily it would at least appear based on preliminary reports that the surge forecast was a bit overdone. The track ended up slightly further East in the end which may have spared some areas.

Double trouble part deuce?

Apparently it doesn’t matter if the center hits the TX/LA border because it’s “sparsely populated”.

Radar was more bark than bite up here in NW Bergen County. Most of the lightning was ahead of the storm. Had one decent wind gust below severe limits and 10 minutes of heavy rain.

Euro is a bit further NW when it nears our area, but still well South and East. We would need the system to track to our North in order to get significant wind impacts, and even then it would be dependent on deep convection mixing down the strong winds aloft.

The 12z HMON would be a significant rainstorm up here. Decent winds at 850mb as well. Still looks rather mundane at the surface although it does have some 30-40kt wind potential along the coast for a period of time.

It's going to be transitioning into an extra-tropical storm. The guidance is showing a deepening system once it reaches the TN Valley, but that's due to baroclinic forcing and not processes that normally are associated with deepening tropical systems. The trough is positively tilted in this case so most of the bad weather associated with the surface low should be South of our area. If the track ends up further North it could get slightly more interesting.

12z HWRF quite a bit further South with the low exiting the coast near VA Beach. Rains confined mostly to the Mid-Atlantic.

The 00z UKMET had 3-5" totals.

We could get quite the soaking depending on what track ends up verifying. Right now I would hedge the majority of the heaviest rains falling over Southern NJ and the mid-Atlantic. If you look at the soundings from the HWRF, they show a lot of mid-level dry air North of I-78.

Looks like Saturday afternoon and evening might be a washout. Other than that don't see wind being much of a factor. The storm does intensify as a hybrid or possibly sub-tropical storm once off the coast but the wind looks to be confined to areas South and East of the center, largely staying offshore.

Lol https://imgur.com/a/wRtzqZ3

If those tracks verified, you might see a Fujiwara or the outflow from the larger storm might completely shear the other.

I think the two system are far enough part that it wouldn't matter unless they both ended up in the Gulf at the same time. The Euro keeps TD-13 weak but it's mostly because of how strong the WAR is and lots of land interaction.

The Euro does have this storm making landfall as a minimal hurricane on the Texas coast in about 5 days.

Squall line incoming

Another line of storms approaching. Several severe warned.

Nothing but bright sunshine and a few puffy cumulus clouds up here.

After Sandy we had no power for ten days, but literally every single transformer in town blew up. Unless I'm mistaken, most of these power outages are related to downed wires which are easier to fix.

That storm lasted much longer and dumped a lot more rain in our area.