NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Is everyone convinced that the weak trough in Canada is going to be enough to weaken the ridge enough that it allows Paulette to escape? A bit of an outlier, but some GEFS members do take Paulette towards the coast.
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Spotty 3+" rainfall NJ/LI Midnight Thu AM-9AM Fri 9/10-11/20
NJwx85 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Decent amount of MUCAPE available for elevated convective activity. Cannot rule out some lightning. -
Spotty 3+" rainfall NJ/LI Midnight Thu AM-9AM Fri 9/10-11/20
NJwx85 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
06z HRDPS has another 3-5" for Western Suffolk County. Doesn't look like much rain will make it NW of the city. Areas NW of 287 could remain mostly dry or with spotty activity. With that being said, it's currently pouring here. -
I stand corrected. It was 11 years without a major hurricane strike and a seven year stretch with four landfalling hurricanes, if you include Sandy.
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We still have six weeks of prime season left.
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We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd.
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You got a cat 4 landfall into SW Louisiana in August and you still think the season is meh. Sorry that Laura wasn't deadly enough for ya...
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Better get used to NYC getting more hurricane threats than Miami.
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I'm not convinced yet that the future Cape Verde hurricane is definitely going to be a recurve. for starters, it appears to be a significant threat to the islands in 7-10 days. The GFS then swings through a shallow trough around the 19th which supposedly weakens the ridge. Again, not sure I buy that, especially given the massive dome of high pressure moving through the Eastern US at the same time. Thereafter, it looks to be steered by the trough coming down from Canada, and who's to say that it doesn't get picked up rather than booted OTS? Sure, the odds favor OTS. But this year, almost every storm that has made it West of 60W has found a way to hit land.
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It’s been on the ensembles for weeks.
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Surface based CAPE is confined to areas mostly south of 195 in NJ. We have no shear, no SBCAPE and perhaps around 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE developing around Sunset. Likely storm evolution is elevated in nature with low risk of severe weather IMO.
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That's the 3K NAM not the HRRR. And it only has significant rain for the Southern half of the sub forum.
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The HRRR shows an increase in MUCAPE after 00z. Probably a decent shot at some elevated convection before the front comes through around 07-09z.
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Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.
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Strong ensemble support for the 5 day cherry. Models are then split between an early recurve and a more ominous track North of the islands.
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It's the two lemons and then the wave that comes off Africa after those two.
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It's been on the radar for a week already. It's going to probably come down to how progressive the big trough coming out of the Rockies is.
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It would be nice if we held onto a Summery feel for at least the month of September. Especially since our Winters have been so back loaded as of late.
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Hopefully we torch until just before Thanksgiving.
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While storm quality has lacked some, we’ve had very few fish storms. Almost everything that’s developed so far has hit land.
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Still need to watch the tropics around mid month.
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It looks pretty healthy to me.
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The center was partially missed by the latest ASCAT pass, but from what we can see, it does appear to have a closed circulation on the Eastern side.
