NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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A storm that deep would be a big game changer in terms of getting better dynamics into our area and stronger winds.
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My preliminary forecast: Scranton - 18-24" Allentown - 18-24" Morristown - 14-20" Trenton - 3-6" Philadelphia - 2-4" Newburgh - 14-20" Nyack - 12-18" Islip - 10-14" Central Park - 6-10" LGA - 4-8" JFK - 4-8" Riverhead - C-2" Newark - 6-10"
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The good news is that the 12z GFS doesn't have as pronounced of a dry slot as the NAM/RGEM. The biggest difference is that the 700mb low tracks over LI instead of the Poconos. The bad news is that it trended way North with the track of the 700mb low from the previous run.
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Yes the shortwave is strong but you would think given the blocking that it should just force a quicker transfer to the coastal.
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I still don't understand how you get 2 feet of snow in Albany with a 1038mb high parked over Quebec. Just doesn't make sense to me.
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They call them clown maps for a reason.... A lot of that "snow" for the coast is sleet being incorrectly counted as snow with 10:1 ratios.
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Late developing coastal which is always a worry with miller B's. Gives Boston more snow than NYC.
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This is probably the warmest panel on the RGEM.
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The dry slot magnified.
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The 12z RGEM is actually not as bad as people are making it out to be. Yes the sleet/snow line makes it to about the Bergen/Rockland line but then the coastal takes over and most places West of the city get good backend snows.
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It must be so cool to actually issue watches/warnings and then come on here and watch people bitch/complain about not getting the warning they wanted
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Nope, nor would I, however even if you couldn't get to a grocery store for a week people should be able to survive without the need for hoarding.
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The NWS in Upton, NY has issued a WEENIE SUICIDE ALERT in affect immediately and until further notice. 12-18 snow weenies per hour will be cliff jumping over the next 24 hours. Please stay tuned to your local weather authority for the most updated information on this breaking story.
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It's 2020 and you live in NYC. Even if you get 30" of snow the roads will be cleared within 24 hours.
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3k NAM soundings show a really ugly dry layer around 700mb. While the North trend has been real, still think that you're not getting a storm that far inland with this amount of blocking. And the NAM/GFS should have been taken out behind the barn years ago...
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12z NAM is more amped up through hr 25.
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Good morning and good luck to everyone. While we're waiting for the 12z NAM to finish running, the 09z SREF mean has the heaviest axis of snow falling in Southern/Central PA up into SE NY and NW NJ with a swath of 12-18" in those areas. For most of NE NJ, NYC and the LHV the mean has 10-12" with lesser amounts as you travel South and East. I can only post the zoomed out low quality image.
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It always was. But as I suspect, it's just more windshield wiper action with regards to the heaviest band.
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18z RGEM
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 400 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-151000- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.201216T1900Z-201217T1800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- 400 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 17 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, especially along the coast. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commute.
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The 18z NAM tracks the 700mb low over NE PA, NNJ and then NYC/LI. We want that about 50 miles Southeast. Otherwise precip might completely shutoff after the initial thump.