NJwx85

12Z PARA GEFS still really likes the idea of a system on either side of Florida around mid month.

Still early but at least for now, path looks similar to Felix.

And my initial point was that NY is no more special than any other highly densely populated area in the country. Chicago experiences the same forecasting criticisms as us with snow and severe. Same goes for every other big city. LA would too if they actually had more than 2 seasons.

The models lost the big rains for today three days ago.

New Jersey is the most densely populated state in the country.

This forum is a lot wider than 25 miles.

It was a bust, especially considering we were in a day 2 enhanced risk with hatched probabilities.

It's there on the ensembles.

The 12z GFS operational may have lost the big tropical threat towards the middle of September but it's still alive and well on the ensembles. Big -NAO signal as well.

It's tough to get a lot of activity in here when you have a positively tilted trough with a closed ULL over Western Kentucky. If we had something to amplify the flow we would have had a soaking. I haven't looked at the Euro yet, but the only model left that brings in decent rains tomorrow is the 12z RGEM and even that is going to be hit or miss.

Just for schits and giggles

The signal is there for a late recurve, and it's a bit more concerning than usual. I feel like I've seen this before. Not sure if this is the GFS picking up on extra-tropical transition and a spreading out of the wind field? Or if this is just typical of pole-ward moving hurricanes gradually weakening under decreasing SST.

If we get anything today it's probably going to be isolated. For starters, storms are currently in progress near I-80 in PA and Eastern Ohio. MCS's almost always dive Southeastward, so based on current observations, severe activity is probably limited to areas South of Philly and primarily more towards the Baltimore to DC corridor.

An MCS is building to the West of Mansfield. The NAM brings that’s through here in about 6 hours. Even the 3k NAM is poorly representing current activity.

The 18z 3k NAM has two lines moving through the area, one around 00z and the next one at 06z. The line moving through CT smacks Suffolk.

I just counted six different supercells moving through Southern NY.

So this post couldn't be any more wrong. The atmosphere is plenty unstable. Just a matter of storm motion.

Did you know that the NY metro doesn't end at 96th street in Manhattan?

Meh SEL7 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Connecticut Southeast New York and Long Island Southern Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Cluster of embedded supercells will spread from the Lower Hudson Valley across southwest New England with a risk for all severe hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Poughkeepsie NY to 30 miles southeast of Block Island RI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Looks like the main threat area will be the Hudson Valley, but we could also get some severe into Northeastern NJ and Long Island.

Yes but the more Eastern track also appears to have somewhat spared the more heavily populated areas in and near Lake Charles.

Impressive 3k NAM sounding