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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    It also pushes the heaviest banding up into NE PA and SE NY by tonight.
  2. NJwx85
    From what a few mets on Twitter that I trust have said, the NAM has been too wet and the HRRR has been too dry so far.
  3. NJwx85
    It's just been light snow in Rockland so far. Looks to be kicking it up towards moderate over the last 30 minutes.
  4. NJwx85
    The HRRR retrogrades the surface low towards the coast and then stalls it around 22z tonight. This allows for the mixing line to work up into Rockland and Westchester.
  5. NJwx85
    12z 3k NAM additional:
  6. NJwx85
    I'm just going to leave this here:
  7. NJwx85
    The coastal will flip winds to out of the NE and the heavy precip will cool the column. Stop whining, there’s no crying in meterology.
  8. NJwx85
    Nothing here yet in Rockland County.
  9. NJwx85
    Still nothing here in Rockland County
  10. NJwx85
  11. NJwx85
    I stopped caring about local weather forecasters opinions 20 years ago when I figured out how to read models myself.
  12. NJwx85
    3k NAM 10:1 map shows 34” IMBY. Where do I sign?
  13. NJwx85
    Crush job on the 18z NAM.
  14. NJwx85
    Wrong
  15. NJwx85
    3-6”
  16. NJwx85
    I like 12-15” for NYC. 6-12” for LI and Central Jersey. 12-18” for LHV and 18-24” for Eastern PA and NW NJ.
  17. NJwx85
    My thinking today is that the heaviest totals will end up just N&W of 95. The ULL is forecasted to be much further North than yesterday.
  18. NJwx85
  19. NJwx85
    Some encouraging trends with the 12z suite but it's questionable as to how far back the pendulum can swing in this setup.
  20. NJwx85
    Things can always change. No absolutes in meteorology. But you also can't disregard the trends.
  21. NJwx85
    It's very hard to get significant precip up here when you have a positively tilted trough. You can thank the confluence over Northern New England for this. The GFS underplayed the extent of the blocking. The setup now definitely favors the DC to Philly corridor.
  22. NJwx85
    What a death band if the GGEM was actually considered to be a reliable model that didn't belong in the dumpster.
  23. NJwx85
    Unless the models are overplaying the confluence to the North this is close to game over North of NYC. Two days ago the GFS had the 700mb low exiting off the NJ coast, now it comes off the coast in Virginia.
  24. NJwx85
    It's a great storm for areas from I-78 South and a nail bitter for areas further North.
  25. NJwx85
    Lots of wraparound snows on Tuesday with the occluding low.
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