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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    12z 3k NAM is coming in a tick colder than the 06z run.
  2. NJwx85
    27 degrees here currently with light freezing rain falling. Glaze on all surfaces. Travel is becoming dangerous. Ban on commercial traffic on 287 in NJ beginning at 8AM.
  3. NJwx85
    I can see the pessimism near the city and Central Jersey but North of Rt 80 is a different world and North of 287 is going to be mostly if not all ice. The HRRR also has spotty activity all day tomorrow.
  4. NJwx85
    While the models have trended warmer for Tuesday morning, low level cold air is almost always undermodeled.
  5. NJwx85
    What a load of garbage. I truly hate how Upton downplays every ice amount.
  6. NJwx85
    This is another example of Upton not pulling the trigger on ice storm warnings when it’s more then warranted for the LHV.
  7. NJwx85
    Generally speaking this should continue to expand Northwestward and the heaviest axis of precip should be near the I-80 corridor, but should extend into the Hudson Valley.
  8. NJwx85
    Going to be some surprises later tonight. Unbelievable how clueless the 18z 3k NAM is. Frontogenesis at the lower levels is developing over the I-95 corridor and I expect the radar to fill in after dark. You can see how the latest run of the HRRR shows about a 3-4 hour burst of precip beginning around 03z.
  9. NJwx85
    The 12z Euro is as bad as it gets N&W of 287. Major ice storm.
  10. NJwx85
    The next system for Thursday time frame has potential but the high is retreating.
  11. NJwx85
    This is why you're getting the precip and why you're warming aloft. Over 80kts of Southwesterly winds at 700mb.
  12. NJwx85
    Yeah, the same mechanism that's driving the precipitation. It's called warm air advection and without it we wouldn't have a storm. The strong shortwave in the Tennessee Valley is driving warm moist air up over the cold, dry air to the North creating lift. Because the trough is so flat you end up with a relative weak wave that quickly scoots East on the strong LLJ. The trough is somewhat amplified in the plains but then gets flattened out. You would want this to dig much further South before then trying to come North which would have forced a redeveloping surface low. All in all if this ends up verifying it's a waste of solid cold air.
  13. NJwx85
    I would still lean towards a snow or snow and sleet mix. In order to get significant freezing rain conditions have to be perfect.
  14. NJwx85
    This is about as ugly as you can get. Only good thing is that by this panel most of the precip has already fallen. You can see how the drier air aloft is already working in.
  15. NJwx85
    Weenie maps are for weenies. That's not just for snow, but for all precip types. The soundings mostly support plenty of sleet and freezing rain for the whole area. Freezing rain is more likely closer to the coast where the cold air is shallower. I would still favor mostly plain rain for the city but the surface temps on the GFS sure give me pause for concern. The GFS is usually too warm at the surface.
  16. NJwx85
    Okay I'm officially concerned
  17. NJwx85
    It's actually flatter with the trough than the GFS but stronger with the shortwave which should lead to a colder solution.
  18. NJwx85
    As someone who would be intrigued with the possibility of an ice storm warning criteria event since it's such a novelty around here, they almost never end up coming to fruition. Most of the time they end up as sleet or plain rain with some ice mixed in. You really need surface temperatures in the mid 20's or lower with significant warming at 900mb to get significant icing. Just basing off the 06z soundings but it looks like mostly sleet to me until you get South of Rt 78.
  19. NJwx85
    That's only half the storm and the wrong model run.
  20. NJwx85
    This is a fast moving storm which will limit accumulations. Probably in and out in about 8-12 hours. Still someone could end up with close to a foot.
  21. NJwx85
    It was much better at H5.
  22. NJwx85
  23. NJwx85
  24. NJwx85
    18z GFS is going to come West.
  25. NJwx85
    It's actually a really simple forecast. If the Southern piece can get ahead of the digging trough, it will phase and come up the coast. If it misses the phase altogether it will go OTS and if the phase is late then we will get scraped and Eastern New England will get it.
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