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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    It's actually flatter with the trough than the GFS but stronger with the shortwave which should lead to a colder solution.
  2. NJwx85
    As someone who would be intrigued with the possibility of an ice storm warning criteria event since it's such a novelty around here, they almost never end up coming to fruition. Most of the time they end up as sleet or plain rain with some ice mixed in. You really need surface temperatures in the mid 20's or lower with significant warming at 900mb to get significant icing. Just basing off the 06z soundings but it looks like mostly sleet to me until you get South of Rt 78.
  3. NJwx85
    That's only half the storm and the wrong model run.
  4. NJwx85
    This is a fast moving storm which will limit accumulations. Probably in and out in about 8-12 hours. Still someone could end up with close to a foot.
  5. NJwx85
    It was much better at H5.
  6. NJwx85
  7. NJwx85
  8. NJwx85
    18z GFS is going to come West.
  9. NJwx85
    It's actually a really simple forecast. If the Southern piece can get ahead of the digging trough, it will phase and come up the coast. If it misses the phase altogether it will go OTS and if the phase is late then we will get scraped and Eastern New England will get it.
  10. NJwx85
    Big shout out to @BxEngine and @Rjay for keeping the board clear both before and during the storm of the typical nonsense and bickering that usually goes on.
  11. NJwx85
    Just surpassed 24 straight hours of non stop snow here.
  12. NJwx85
  13. NJwx85
    Looks like another intense band is about to rotate in, coming through Queens now.
  14. NJwx85
    Does it have anything to do with the depth of the cold air mass? It's only 27 degrees here which is actually the warmest it's been in a few days.
  15. NJwx85
  16. NJwx85
    My sister lives on Hurtin Blvd. Before that she lived a few miles away in one of the coops.
  17. NJwx85
    Nick's Hometown Grille
  18. NJwx85
    That looks like my Sisters neighborhood.
  19. NJwx85
    Somewhere around the same. It's hard to measure with all the drifts. Even the snowboard isn't reliable with the winds.
  20. NJwx85
    Just an amazing storm here with no real end in sight. 18z 3k NAM has light snow persisting over the area for about the next 24 hours and doesn't really start to show things lightening up until after 10PM.
  21. NJwx85
    After a brief lull things have really picked up again, visibility is back below 1/4 mile.
  22. NJwx85
    I can definitely tell the difference with the snow intensity in between bands. The heaviest axis of snow now is from just NW of Philly up to about the Paterson, NJ area. Definitely a larger area of subsidence near Newark.
  23. NJwx85
    It doesn't make much sense to me, but the HRRR depicts the sleet line working well up into the Hudson Valley tonight. If that happens it's going to be hard to get the really big numbers that the NAM was spitting out up this way.
  24. NJwx85
    I'm looking at the soundings for the HRRR and I don't see a warm layer. I think it's just a product of milder air coming in off the ocean at the lowest levels due to the close proximity of the low tracks. The standard radar that most people use doesn't resolve mixing issues well.
  25. NJwx85
    It's not over and you look to be in a pretty good spot for the pivot.
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