Jump to content

NJwx85

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    19,256

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    4-6" Thursday morning into early evening, then a bit of a lull and then another 2-4" overnight Thursday into early Friday. Should be most people to the 6-10" range. Certainly nothing to complain about. And then we finally break out of this horrendous pattern (Yes I am sick of this crap already) and we look forward to 50's next weekend as we close out the month. Spring is a month away.
  2. NJwx85
  3. NJwx85
    Ouch, if this is correct the city will start off as some light snow and then quickly change over to sleet.
  4. NJwx85
    WAA snows remind me of the November system from a few years ago that caught everyone off guard.
  5. NJwx85
    Still think most here will get 4-8" with 10" locally. Not that it really matters here. My snowpack is still over a foot deep in most places. Even with hitting 54 here today it didn't do much. I think I have a glacier in my yard.
  6. NJwx85
    It's relying on another shortwave rounding the base of the trough and creating another storm. It's possible but I certainly wouldn't bet on that happening without better model agreement.
  7. NJwx85
    This storm has in and out in about 8 hours written all over it. No blocking, strong mid-level jet and retreating high.
  8. NJwx85
    The 12z GFS was similar to the 12z NAM with regards to the WAA precip for Thursday, although not quite as far NW. It was however West of the 06z run and significantly faster and stronger.
  9. NJwx85
    4-8" for most, up to 12" locally. It should come in relatively heavy on Thursday during the day but the high is retreating and warm air will be moving in aloft so I would bet on a changeover South of I-84. Then it looks like we could get some back end snow on Friday but that looks to be very light.
  10. NJwx85
    It's also the last model anyone should be looking at right now.
  11. NJwx85
    I don't know how people are making such definitive statements about anything at this stage of the game. Right now I would say 12"+ is just as likely as nothing.
  12. NJwx85
    If the 12z NAM is correct the WAA snow is going to come in like a wall on Thursday afternoon.
  13. NJwx85
    Nobody is getting 40" out of this.
  14. NJwx85
    Because the NWS doesn't use clown maps for forecasting snow amounts.
  15. NJwx85
    We're in a pretty good spot with this one although we are likely going to taint during the height South of 84. Still looks like a solid 4-8" for most with 10-12" locally.
  16. NJwx85
  17. NJwx85
    Nice glaze on my cars and driveway. Freezing drizzle/mist continues. 30 degrees.
  18. NJwx85
  19. NJwx85
    NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-161200- /O.CON.KPHI.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1500Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton 701 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing. Additional ice accumulations of two tenths to four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and northeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be extremely difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Sleet and freezing rain will move into the area through the first half of this evening before changing to mainly freezing rain by the overnight. Precipitation may eventually change to a period of all rain in places by Tuesday morning before winding down. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
  20. NJwx85
    Not until all of the precip is long over.
  21. NJwx85
    I'm throwing in the towel, the 18z 3k NAM is even warmer. The only thing I will cautiously say is that the soundings only show the LHV reaching the mid 30's for highs, and it doesn't really get above 34 until after the precip shuts off. It wouldn't take much of an error for some areas to stay below freezing longer. Should have known that the severe weather down South was going to prompt a more amped up solution.
  22. NJwx85
    It's not the Southeast ridge, look at the difference in strength and position of the high.
  23. NJwx85
    You can see a CAD signature here with the V shaped isobars sagging down into VA. The airmass is certainly running a few degrees warmer than expected but they still have the warnings/advisories up for a reason.
  24. NJwx85
    Step 1, freezing rain falls, freezing on contact. Step 2, most main roads are treated so issues are minimal, but bridges and ramps could be dicey. Some secondary roads could be hazardous. It only takes a light glaze to cause dangerous travel. Step 3, the temperature starts to rise, but even 0.1 to 0.2" ice accretion on branches and power lines is enough to bring them down. Step 4, eventually the temperature rises above freezing, but how much damage is already done by then?
  25. NJwx85
    And hundreds of branches and lines could be down by then.
×
×
  • Create New...