NJwx85

When I left home it was 33 degrees and mostly white rain. When I hit Suffern on the Thruway it really picked up. I would say visibility was down to about 1/4 of a mile near the exit for Airmont. So far about 2" on non paved surfaces here in Ramsey. Car said 30 degrees, phone says 32 degrees. Either way, I think we're a touch colder than originally forecast. I think if this had fallen last night a lot more would have stuck.

I have some snow on my car and a slushy coating on the grass. It’s 33 degrees. If that death band does setup just East of the River everyone just West will probably be stuck in sub hell.

That GFS run is on crack. It gives zero to Eastern Mass and over a foot just East of the Hudson.

The mix/snow line has cleared the Sussex and Orange County lines, sagging SE towards Ramapo and Ringwood. Looks like the mix line is about halfway across Rockland and Bergen so far. Getting close to Spring Valley and Montvale.

Radar is actually blossoming East of the GSP.

Hot off the presses

All I can say is LOL

Not bad. Problem is outside of the higher elevations it's 35 degrees and falling during the daylight hours in mid March.

You're not kidding.

The 18z HRRR is slightly improved for the NW burbs. Primarily because of a slightly faster changeover tonight and a bit more coverage on the light snows tomorrow afternoon.

Latest SREF mean basically cut totals in half from this morning for the Hudson Valley.

Yes as you go up the Palisades you start to go up in elevation. Especially once you get up to Stony Point near Bear Mountain.

GFS has a crazy snow gradient over Rockland and Westchester. Could be 8"+ in places like Tompkins Cove and Yorktown Heights while Nyack and White Plains get under an inch.

I disagree. I think it's useful inside of 24 hours.

So many what ifs with this storm. It's especially frustrating because this system had a lot of potential and it comes at the tail end of a Winter that has been very disappointing. But no amount of wish casting or model hugging is going to change the facts.

The problem is a lot of people not knowing or understanding what they are looking at despite having been on here for years. This storm has so many red flags. No fresh injection of cold air. Poor track of ULL overhead. Late developing Miller B. I could go on but those are the most obvious.

I saw a lot of people jumping on the NAM bandwagon yesterday that were acting like a kid on Christmas morning. When the NAM in particular is all on its own it shouldn't even be discussed. To me it falls under the same category as the Weather channel naming winter storms. It's embarrassing.

Because it was still a very complex evolution that wasn't easy to resolve. The airmass which wasn't that cold to begin with is stale. You're missing a fresh injection of cold air. Besides the general lack of cold air, you have two other major problems. First, the closed upper level low tracks overhead which is always the kiss of death. You need to be just North of the track of the ULL or you dry slot. Secondly, the NAM and at times the Euro were way too strong with the energy involving the ULL itself. The Euro was closing it off much sooner, which would have led to a quicker development of the surface low and overall a stronger system. Kudos to the GFS which has had this solution since last week.

It was a bigger head fake because the model skill wasn't as good as it is now. It's very similar in that we got burned by a late developing storm.

The HRRR has maybe a few hours of mostly white rain tomorrow afternoon as the low occludes over New England. Some areas might pick up 1-2" but temps are in the mid 30's on the coastal plain and precip is light and falling during the day. Any accumulations would be on grassy and untreated surfaces.

Lets hope the HRRR is completely out to lunch.