NJwx85

It's still one heck of a good setup for our standards. The strong lapse rates will help us overcome a lot of the instability issues.

You can see these little embedded cells popping up.

The 15z run of the HRRR shows the line blowing up as it comes down off the mountains.

Yup, had 3 or 4 good rumbles of thunder and then a burst of heavy rain. Gone now, and just some light rain.

Just had another crack of thunder here. Storm is probably developing overhead. Goes to show you how much lift is out there despite the overcast conditions.

Just had a huge crack of thunder here. Surprised the hell out of me.

SBCAPE is lagging, but we still have a good amount of MUCAPE with decent shear and lapse rates. The HRRR continues to show a spike in surface based instability as the main line approaches around 17-19z.

The mesoscale models have always had this late morning band pushing through followed by the main show a couple of hours later. Currently the cold front is all the way back in Central PA, near State College.

Sun poking through the clouds here. Latest HRRR has around 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE in NE NJ ahead of the main line. Should make for a decent squall line if it verifies given the other parameters.

SPC still has the entire area in a slight risk today.

Mesoscale models have an area of "showers" moving through early afternoon before the main show. Worried that might severely limit the amount of CAPE available. The 18z NAM backed off quite a bit on instability.

And that’s all she wrote, remaining portion of the tornado watch has been lifted. Lack of instability really ruined chances North of Philly.

Cell passing just North of Princeton remains one to watch but lightning strikes remain limited. Everything else looks DOA. Maybe a few more discrete cells can pop.

The line is really bowing out as it moves into Cape May County.

One discrete cell has popped near Doylestown. Could be one to watch as it moves generally towards the Princeton area.

Currently the strongest shear combined with a few hundred j/kg of SBCAPE are moving into Northern NJ with one more wave about to move in. If we are going to see something, this is probably going to be it. Once that passes through in the next hour things should shut off pretty quickly from West to East. Overall a bit of a disappointment out this way. I know a lot of damage has been reported on the coast so don't want to downplay things but looks like further inland the inversion won out. Things could have been a bit more interesting if the system had tracked a bit further West and we truly got warm sectored.

We will probably see one more big storm system towards the middle or end of next week as the -NAO rebounds. I doubt we see much in the way of snow as it will be late April by then, but it might bode well for more severe chances and wind threats. Then the pattern should break and Spring should finally take hold.

Small supercell has popped up ahead of the line in Western Atlantic County. Some broad rotation on radar, with decent environment to work with.

South Jersey about to got rocked, looking meh for areas North of Philly. About ready to put a fork in this one for our area, although a marginal threat exists with the activity near Wilkes-Barre.

We would really be in business if some SBCAPE managed to work into the area. Right now, surging up into PA.

That doesn't include O&R customers. O&R is owned by Con Ed.

Update, slight risk extended East to about the Hudson river.

One lone lightning strike just showed up near Allamuchy State Park.