NJwx85

Expect quite a lot of rain for Saturday into Sunday with this trough setup on the Euro. Looks like a cutoff with redeveloping surface low.

The wind has really picked up here in the last ten minutes. Also the temperature has dropped down to 45 degrees after a high of 61.

Been lucky enough to see hail four or five times. The first time was in Delaware in the parking lot of a Sonic. Twice we had hail at my parents house in Pompton Plains and we've had it twice in Mahwah since I moved here almost four years ago. Largest hail I've ever had someone I know witness in this area which was golf ball sized which occurred in Butler, NJ almost ten years ago. And then we had this freak storm from 2011 which brought baseball sized hail to parts of Queens and LI. https://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/baseball-sized-hail-damages-cars-in-queens-and-long-island/

Relax cowboy, the line is still intensifying as it moves East. Long way to go before it clears Long Island.

Fordham had a wind gust to 71MPH as the line went through. Stop posting.

Much better than your boring line of "showers"

It had the right location for storms blowing up but it was too far North with the strongest activity.

Long Island is going to get smoked. Congrats. Who would have thought that on April 21st that was the place to be for severe.

Because the storm moved out of the warming area?

How's that working out for ya?

Not sleet, small hail.

The weak, but relatively tight couplet showing up on radar just South of Mt. Vernon is likely what prompted the tornado warning. Decent shot something tornadic occurred just now in extreme Southern Westchester county.

Line coming through here the last five minutes. Some thunder, moderate rain and a few breezy gusts but other than that not much. The models were a bit too far North with the extent of the stronger convection. Wonder if the 3k NAM verifies and this isn't the main show?

Sun is making an attempt to pop out up here. Going to be close with line approaching. Can already see the dark clouds coming off the mountains to my NW.

Good amount of lightning activity popping up now over Western Morris County.

Visible satellite loop shows a narrow area of clearing ahead of the cold front sweeping across NJ currently. Looks like the clearing will not make it much North of Rt. 80. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Eastern Maryland New Jersey Western Long Island New York Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 125 PM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the watch area this afternoon, with the potential for locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Islip NY to 40 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

I think it just has that appearance for the Northern counties because sometimes when cells cross over into OKX territory, Upton doesn't issue warnings. I think it's more of a case of the storms weakening as they cross the Hudson river and feel the marine influence. Good news is that shouldn't be a problem today.

The two nearest radar beams are coming from Dover and Upton. That’s part of the reason why the radar might look underwhelming.

Radar echo appearance doesn’t always tell the whole story. Had plenty of lightning with 30-40dbz echoes earlier. Not only is the line lOW topped but it’s still really far away from the OKX site and KDIX is down.

Mesoscale Discussion 0424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Areas affected...northeast Virginia...Maryland...Deleware...southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211623Z - 211830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind may undergo some increase by early to mid afternoon over the Middle Atlantic region. Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible WW. DISCUSSION...A band of low-topped convection currently extends from eastern PA southwest into West Virginia moving east at around 45 kt. Activity is developing along a cold front and in association with deeper ascent attending a progressive shortwave trough. The downstream warm sector is only weakly unstable due to widespread pre-frontal rain and clouds. A relatively narrow corridor of partial clearing is occurring just ahead of the cold front, though tendency has been for dewpoints to mix down into the 30s F, due to a relatively shallow moist layer evident on the 12Z Dulles ROAB. The Wallops RAOB indicated a somewhat deeper near-surface moist layer with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s. As temperatures rise into the low-mid 60s F and where low-mid 40s near-surface dewpoints can be maintained, sufficient instability (300-500 J/kg MLCAPE) might develop to support updrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. This will be promoted by inverted-V boundary layers and potential for southwesterly winds of 40-45 kt in the 1-2 km layer to be transported to the surface within some of the convective cores.

Lots of lightning strikes showing up all over Queens and the bays around Sandy Hook.