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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Last four runs. Keep in mind the first two runs are counting a lot of snow that has already fallen to our North.
  2. NJwx85
    It will be, but the HRRR is a very short term model. Anything beyond a few hours is very unreliable.
  3. NJwx85
    Please stop with the model/radar hallucinations. This is the latest 6 runs of the HRRR through 00z Tuesday. As you can see, just some very minor shifts but nothing noteworthy.
  4. NJwx85
    It's been snowing steadily here since 8AM. I think you meant to say what time does it start in the city proper?
  5. NJwx85
    This looks to be setting up in such a way that once the bands fully develop, I wouldn't expect them to move much until late tonight.
  6. NJwx85
    You would have better accuracy predicting the next time the Jets win the Super Bowl.
  7. NJwx85
    Final Numbers Central Park - 3-5" LGA - 2-4" JFK - 1-3" Islip - 1-2" Newark - 3-5" HPN - 3-6" SWF - 6-10" Danbury - 2-4" Morristown - 4-8" New Brunswick - 2-4"
  8. NJwx85
    Snow started falling in Ramsey around 8:20. Temperature was 30 degrees. Currently have light snow falling. Flake size is quite large. Already around a coating of new snow on all surfaces.
  9. NJwx85
    Puking snow for the last half hour. Already accumulating.
  10. NJwx85
    Very dangerous out there right now. 27 degrees with light zr. Coating of ice on everything.
  11. NJwx85
    Currently 27 degrees here with light freezing rain.
  12. NJwx85
    Warning here for 5-12” of snow and up to 1/4” of ice.
  13. NJwx85
    Just remember that historically speaking models under perform with CAD or low level cold air. Could get quite icy in interior sections tonight.
  14. NJwx85
    Not a big fan of the fact that the start time keeps getting pushed back. It’s more likely now that precip starts as a mix now rather than as snow.
  15. NJwx85
    Just based on history, these backend deformation bands rarely work out for us. It’s usually people to our North and East that get clobbered.
  16. NJwx85
    I think 1-3” is a great call for the city with 2-4” for the immediate NW suburbs and parts of LI. 3-6” once you get near 287 in NJ and North of the Thruway in Rockland. 4-8” for Northern Westchester, 3-6” near the Tappan Zee bridge and 1-3” for Southern Westchester and the Northern Bronx. Once North of 84 in NY I like 6-10”, same for the Pocoos and extreme NW NJ. NW of Newburg I see the greatest potential for >12”.
  17. NJwx85
    Sun is out here
  18. NJwx85
    Not a single flake here. Can see the back edge of the front and clearing near the horizon. Might pull out some sun before the day is over.
  19. NJwx85
    Take the snow goggles off. This is a few hours of light precip and that's not going to get it done. You really need a dynamic system to cool the column. Even on the GFS this sounding supports a rain/snow mix or at best white rain. You could even argue sleet or freezing rain.
  20. NJwx85
    The airmass coming in for this weekend behind the storm is very good but by early next week we will be moderating. No fresh injection of cold air and no high to the North. The real cold air comes in as the precip is shutting off, at least for the coast. Further inland it looks better.
  21. NJwx85
    To get more than a few mood flakes this early in the season you need a dynamic system. The surface low has trended weaker over the past day or two. Don't see anything more than a slushy inch or two at this time.
  22. NJwx85
    lol
  23. NJwx85
    Yes because both scenarios/setups are exactly the same.
  24. NJwx85
    Most of the 12z tropical guidance shifted North with landfall near Jacksonville in about 72 hours. FWIW, the 06z GEFS were very unimpressed with a weak storm gradually making it into the Western Gulf.
  25. NJwx85
    Lots of wind and rain. It looks pretty fierce at 850mb. Need to see more panels between 216 and 240.
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