NJwx85
-
Posts
19,806 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NJwx85
-
The latest HRRR has basically no snow outside of the higher elevations of Orange County and NW NJ through 05z tonight. Then the changeover gradually begins, but the whole area begins to dry slot. If that happens, the forecast is very much in trouble. This reminds me of March 2001 so much, but the biggest difference being that models are so much better than they were then and so they were able to figure this out a lot quicker.
-
I had a 6” storm the week before last and one storm in December.
-
It won’t be though. Yesterday I had 4” on my car and maybe an inch on grass. And it was all gone by this time yesterday.
-
You can’t take away what never was outside of a few fluke runs.
-
Please bring back the upper 60 degree and sunny days. My lawn has started growing, I had flowers starting to pop up and any snow we get, even if over a foot will melt within a day or 2 with this sun.
-
I’m talking about places closer to the city not the mountains of NW NJ.
-
The window for a watch is closing and confidence of greater than 6” is less than 60% required South of 84.
-
Until the GFS and Euro show a consensus on something even remotely similar it’s just model porn.
-
Many people here will be shocked when the NAM cuts totals by 75% or more by tomorrow morning and yet have been on here for years and still fall for it every damn time. The NAM’s wheelhouse is inside of 24 hours.
-
Cutoff for that storm was over NW NJ. Major drop off West of MMU
-
Show Kuchera
-
Soundings, at least on the GFS don’t show a lot of sleet. It’s mostly rain or snow or a rain snow mix.
-
Precip isn’t the problem. Track isn’t the problem. The airmass sucks. Plain and simple.
-
This has never been a major snowstorm for the coast. The Euro had 3-4 runs showing something big and has backed up ever since. The UKMET had it 1 or 2 runs. The NAM shouldn’t even be discussed. This is a miller B in mid March and the model consensus strongly favors climo. I think the threat is over for anyone South of I-84.
-
Typical windshield wiper today. Don’t be surprised if it goes back East tonight
-
18z GFS
-
At this range you better hope the NAM jackpots Buffalo. If it shows a big hit around here or is further East that would be a red flag.
-
This sub forum is unique. Not in size but because the climate differs tremendously from West to East and North to South. New England has the same infighting between the NNE and SNE crews. We're all hear to discuss the weather. Not just the weather that is falling or not falling in your backyard, but weather impacting a portion of or the entire region.
-
Agreed. Wish we could see Euro soundings.
-
Model skill is generally poor at surface depictions for mixed precip. Would need to look at soundings to see the full picture which I don't have access too.
-
I think the danger is we're three days out and a lot can go wrong. IE the low developing too late or dynamics not being strong enough to cool the BL ect. But as things stand now verbatim, I think most would do very well. It wouldn't be an epic blizzard for the coast but it would easily be the biggest snowfall of the season.
-
About 2-2.5" areawide.
-
Theoretically on the Euro, most of this subforum sees 12+ hours of sleet or mixed precip which would cut down on totals along the coast. Doubt that happens in reality. We would be under the "death band" for a good 6-12 hours and even though surface temps would be 2-3 degrees above freezing I do believe it would accumulate.
-
The Euro develops the system a bit later but we still end up with well over 2" of QPF. This should be all from storm 2.
-
Monday afternoon, pretty much rain everywhere. Seems warmer than 00z.
