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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    New HRRR. Locally up to 10" over NNJ and SE NY. We need less location specific posts. The NYC metro is larger than your backyard.
  2. NJwx85
    You're making it sound like this storm is going to Buffalo. Long Island was never forecasted to receive the highest totals and it was always a close call for NYC proper. With that being said, the further North the warm front makes it the greater the severe threat.
  3. NJwx85
    This was always supposed to play out like this. Have to get some clearing for awhile if we're going to destabilize enough to support the convection.
  4. NJwx85
    We always knew it wasn't going to rain all day. The question is, when the convection comes in later, will it be focused more over Central, Northern NJ or will it be more of a North Jersey, Hudson Valley focus.
  5. NJwx85
    New SPC outlook is out. The 10% tornado threat has been expanded Northward to about Staten Island. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
  6. NJwx85
    That supercell to the West of Toms River blew up fast.
  7. NJwx85
    The latest HRRR shifted slightly North again with heaviest totals over extreme NNJ and the LHV. I don't buy that scenario. I think it's already too far North with the precipitation shield and way underdone in the I-80 corridor.
  8. NJwx85
  9. NJwx85
  10. NJwx85
  11. NJwx85
    It’s been the same for 3 days. It’s happening so might as well embrace it.
  12. NJwx85
    All these years later and you still don’t know what the NYC metro is.
  13. NJwx85
    Yikes
  14. NJwx85
    Doesn't reflect that in the totals.
  15. NJwx85
    Quite a big shift North on the RGEM. Coming into a consensus now. I suspect it might not be finished correcting. The trough has been trending more amplified.
  16. NJwx85
    12z WRF-ARW High res. Pockets of 6"+
  17. NJwx85
    Most of the rain falls in short order but it's not necessarily in and out in 6-8 hours. For example the 12z 3K NAM brings rain into the area late tonight before the main convective precipitation even forms. Either way it looks like light to moderate rain at times well out ahead of the main show.
  18. NJwx85
    I grew up in Pequannock/Pompton Plains. It's not as bad as it used to be but we had a stretch in 2011-2012 where we had five or six significant floods in less than a three year period. Been relatively quiet since then. This storm has the potential to be the most significant flood in the last 10 years.
  19. NJwx85
    Reminiscing of August 2011 for sure but obviously not quite as extreme.
  20. NJwx85
    Just like before big convective snowstorms the axis of heaviest totals will shift a little each run. Last night it was North, this morning it's a little bit South. Consensus puts the heaviest totals between the LHV region and Northern NJ spreading eastward into SNE and Long Island. The real killer here is that some areas could see in excess of 6" in under 12 hours and this could occur over a widespread area. Several river systems in NNJ are in trouble.
  21. NJwx85
    So much for the wagons North comments. The RGEM has been consistently too far South and other than a blip run here or there the rest of the models have been locked in on a solid 4-6” here with locally higher amounts.
  22. NJwx85
    Finally intensifying. Huge burst of deep convection wrapping around the center.
  23. NJwx85
    Eyewall visible on radar.
  24. NJwx85
  25. NJwx85
    Also this is turning NW. The models and the track are way too far East.
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