NJwx85

Should we blame the hurricanes from colonial times on global warming too? These storms have gotten worse because people are refusing to listen to warnings and evacuate. The surge is the killer. We saw it with Katrina, Sandy and now likely Ian. Floridaians especially have become complaicent because luckily major hurricane strikes are infrequent.

Ian is now fully back over water, at least in terms of the center. Already some deeper convection starting to fire near the center.

Center is moving offshore now near Port Canaveral. Will be interesting to see how quickly Ian reorganizes over still very warm SST for next 24 hours.

It’s going to get interesting there as the eye passes well South and winds flip to onshore next couple of hours. Still overall think they dogged quite a bullet.

It looks like the Orlando area will get what’s left of the Western eyewall tonight and tomorrow AM. Could be the worst storm in WDW history.

Outflow is restricted on the SW side and shear is evedint on IR loop. However, only 4-6 hours to go and storm is thus far doing a good job of fighting it off. Maybe just some slight weakening until landfall but either way it’s a large storm with a large wind field and the impacts are going to be major.

Hearing unconfirmed rumors that they have started issuing evacuation orders for portions of Tampa area.

12Z GFS has a lot of dry air to the East and South of the center from Wednesday afternoon on. As others have said, it looks like convection will have trouble building on the Eastern side of the storm once near Florida. I wonder how much of the wind will actually mix down to the surface if the Eastern side is mostly void of deep convection.

It's pretty astounding how a hurricane in the Western Caribbean in September could have issues with dry air entrainment but you can clearly see all of the dry, sinking air on water vapor loop. I still think that once Ian gets North of Cuba we're going to see a period of steady intensification, with a likely max intensity near 115-120kts. Every major model shreds this storm once it gets North of Tampa so assuming that the center passes at least 50 miles offshore at Tampa's latitude, biggest story might be inland flooding in the Southern Appalachians. I know a lot of people that canceled Disney plans for this coming week and I kept telling them that the average track error at day 5 is more than 150 miles. If the HWRF/GFS camp end up being more correct, Central FL might not see much impacts at all.

New cell firing near Sparta, NJ moving ENE. It's fairly isolated from the rest and going over untapped areas.

3000-3500 J/KG SBCAP and 40-45kts of bulk shear getting it done. Best dynamics are over New England but they aren't bad over our area either.

Looks like a big hail core near TPZ bridge.

Cell is splitting. Southern storm moving towards the city, Northern cell moving towards Rockland and Westchester.

I have a visible on the Bergen County storm. Spectacular storm structure for this area. Definitely looks like a supercell. Saw in the warning that a trained spotter reported weak rotation in Bloomfield.

Most of the models had activity confined to the N&W of I-95 which is why the slight risk more or less parallels the NJ TPK. Plenty of SBCAPE areawide which is probably why they issued a watch further South but most of the significant wind shear is focused near the warm front which is anchored over Southern NY.

Another cluster is building over Warren/Morris/Somerset counties and moving Northeast. Going to be moving over the same hard hit areas. Round 3 for many since 7AM.

Interesting parameter.

Under that cell here currently. Sky is pitch black. Someone earlier had posted what looked like some weak rotation overhead from Whippany.

The rotation over the NNJ cell, specifically the one headed towards Passaic County is strengthening some. I'm a little surprised they haven't pulled the trigger on that one yet.

Already deleted my post and fixed it. Thanks.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch area wide excluding Eastern Long Island till 10PM. PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES : 05% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%