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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    You guys do realize that enough ice could fall before temperatures warm to cause major power issues right? It won't matter if we hit 50 degrees tomorrow morning if the power lines are already down.
  2. NJwx85
    It was current when I posted it directly from spc.noaa.gov
  3. NJwx85
    You will wet bulb.
  4. NJwx85
    I am going to be watching the HRRR closely, specifically with temperature profile trends.
  5. NJwx85
    It’s going to be a disaster. That’s why they have a commercial vehicle ban on 287 in NJ.
  6. NJwx85
    Rockland County isn’t upstate.
  7. NJwx85
  8. NJwx85
    Exactly, it only takes a glaze to cause major impacts. We should be below freezing for at least the next 18 hours or so.
  9. NJwx85
    My main concern is that once you start getting above 0.25" ice accretion it's going to take down a lot of branches and power lines. Even though the temperature eventually gets up into the mid 30's by tomorrow morning the damage could already be done. The 3k NAM hasn't been doing great with regards to the spotty activity today and to use Rockland County as an example, doesn't reach 32 degrees until just before sunrise.
  10. NJwx85
    12z 3k NAM is coming in a tick colder than the 06z run.
  11. NJwx85
    27 degrees here currently with light freezing rain falling. Glaze on all surfaces. Travel is becoming dangerous. Ban on commercial traffic on 287 in NJ beginning at 8AM.
  12. NJwx85
    I can see the pessimism near the city and Central Jersey but North of Rt 80 is a different world and North of 287 is going to be mostly if not all ice. The HRRR also has spotty activity all day tomorrow.
  13. NJwx85
    While the models have trended warmer for Tuesday morning, low level cold air is almost always undermodeled.
  14. NJwx85
    What a load of garbage. I truly hate how Upton downplays every ice amount.
  15. NJwx85
    This is another example of Upton not pulling the trigger on ice storm warnings when it’s more then warranted for the LHV.
  16. NJwx85
    Generally speaking this should continue to expand Northwestward and the heaviest axis of precip should be near the I-80 corridor, but should extend into the Hudson Valley.
  17. NJwx85
    Going to be some surprises later tonight. Unbelievable how clueless the 18z 3k NAM is. Frontogenesis at the lower levels is developing over the I-95 corridor and I expect the radar to fill in after dark. You can see how the latest run of the HRRR shows about a 3-4 hour burst of precip beginning around 03z.
  18. NJwx85
    The 12z Euro is as bad as it gets N&W of 287. Major ice storm.
  19. NJwx85
    The next system for Thursday time frame has potential but the high is retreating.
  20. NJwx85
    This is why you're getting the precip and why you're warming aloft. Over 80kts of Southwesterly winds at 700mb.
  21. NJwx85
    Yeah, the same mechanism that's driving the precipitation. It's called warm air advection and without it we wouldn't have a storm. The strong shortwave in the Tennessee Valley is driving warm moist air up over the cold, dry air to the North creating lift. Because the trough is so flat you end up with a relative weak wave that quickly scoots East on the strong LLJ. The trough is somewhat amplified in the plains but then gets flattened out. You would want this to dig much further South before then trying to come North which would have forced a redeveloping surface low. All in all if this ends up verifying it's a waste of solid cold air.
  22. NJwx85
    I would still lean towards a snow or snow and sleet mix. In order to get significant freezing rain conditions have to be perfect.
  23. NJwx85
    This is about as ugly as you can get. Only good thing is that by this panel most of the precip has already fallen. You can see how the drier air aloft is already working in.
  24. NJwx85
    Weenie maps are for weenies. That's not just for snow, but for all precip types. The soundings mostly support plenty of sleet and freezing rain for the whole area. Freezing rain is more likely closer to the coast where the cold air is shallower. I would still favor mostly plain rain for the city but the surface temps on the GFS sure give me pause for concern. The GFS is usually too warm at the surface.
  25. NJwx85
    Okay I'm officially concerned
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