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Left the botched Title here Wed morning 440AM: Longest heat wave of the season so far, "possible" Sun Aug 8 to possibly Wed Aug 18. Heat: 00z/4 EPS continues 19C Mon-Thu before slight cooling thereafter, but that may be in part climo? 00z/4 GFS has made an abrupt change on backdooring and now has potential 90F heat NON-marine influenced I95 corridor for many days. There could be interruptions due to convection-sea breezes but by and large a lengthy hot spell seems to be increasingly modeled. NAEFS suggests that the above normal temps may continue through the 18th, possibly longer. Heat indices may rise to 100-105F in the I95 corridor (non marine), for two days next work week. This is a time of lush vegetation that contributes to high dew points and it appears dewpoints should rise into the low-mid 70s, as modeled, at times next week. The first hottest HI day should be next Tuesday or Wednesday (10th-11th). The 00z/ 4 GGEM is not favoring a big heat wave and WPC Day 6-7 for next Tue-Wed MAX HI is generally mid 90s... so there is uncertainty although I sense NCEP NDFD blend may be muting the potential heat. We will know more in a week. The reason for this thread: This pattern gives appearance of providing non marine areas with their longest spell of summery 90+ heat. EWR current max stretch is I believe 5 days. This doesn't mean historic numbers but does suggest precautions will need to be taken each afternoon-night in the interior urban centers. QPF: in addition to the 1-2" of rain that at least eastern LI should receive later today-Thursday morning, there could be sea breeze induced thunderstorms in the high CAPE over a portion of the LI shores next week, that could drive up iso max rainfall there to 6". The pattern also suggests, with waves of PWAT near 2" next week and KI in the mid 30s, that there may be small pockets of brief excessive rainfall and wet microbursts in an otherwise light westerly steering flow (generally less than 25 knots next week) I95 corridor northwestward. Where, when or IF? It doesn't look like it gets too warm aloft at upper levels (500MB) to stifle thunderstorm growth, until next weekend at the earliest (14th). fwiw: Marginal 90F appears possible this Fri-Sat (6-7), but the heat portion the thread concentrates from the 8th-possibly as long as the 18th with the initial primary focus next Mon-Fri (9-13)
Started a topic that may not bear as much fruit as the recent ELSA of this past week but with the attached 6 hr FFG fairly low now in the immediate NYC suburbs, thought it might be good to heads up some of the potential. Sun afternoon-Tuesday---warm frontal residuals and moisture pooling in weak low lvl WAA and halfway decent winds aloft that diminish considerably on Tue, I think there will be pockets of FF producing thunderstorms that could yield spot 5" amounts in that 60 hour period (slow movers Tuesday). Instability is related to considerable CAPE over 2000J in parts of the area Mon and Tue. Warm fronts can be big rainfall producers and so my thinking is the biggest problems will be I80 south, though some of the modeling gets things cranking up to I84. Suspect a few SVR Wet microbursts each day, especially Monday and Tuesday. Additionally the heat wave should begin Tuesday in the non-marine wind influenced coastal plain with the HI 95-100 Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and possibly right through the weekend if the 12az/9 EC op is incorrect and the GFS as of 18z/9 is correct on 576 thickness in our area next weekend. My guess, once the heat wave starts, the debate shifts to it's big break... right now I favor longer than the EC and quite possibly lasting through next weekend. Hottest day(s)?: I think Fri when some of modeling has HI 100-maybe 105 near NYC. SVR seems likely to me on Wednesday the 14th due to increasing wind fields, then a drying out Thu-probably nothing that day, with fairly widespread SVR looming either next Fri or Sat when not only CAPE seems pretty large, but wind fields increase quite a bit and more easily sustain a big outbreak. TT toward next weekend increase a bit toward 48-50..not a huge svr signal but together with the wind fields and CAPE, should be interesting. In Summary: Lower FFG, high CAPE suggest pockets of excessive rainfall coming this week, along with SVR storms, esp Mon, Wed, FRI. Who gets the worst and when?? It does appear this will be more than the routine summer week, once again, with the big 500MB ridge along the east coast and troughing hugging the Great Lakes.