NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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https://x.com/michaelrlowry/status/1701793885108777040?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw How do you embed tweets now?
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Why is it having such a hard time clearing out the eye? Outflow is ridiculous and it's still over sufficiently warm water. Shear appears low and don't see a lot of dry air intrusion.
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I was comparing to yesterday's 12z run. It's West of that but East of 00z.
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Euro with landfall in Eastern Maine at 120hrs
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12z Euro is slightly West of the 00z run at 96hrs. Close enough to bring strong winds to the New England coast.
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It really is astounding The 12z Friday position is nearly identical to the 00z run.
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Also to note is that the GFS has moderate Southwesterly shear building West of potential Nigel thanks to deep East coast trough.
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12z GFS has a major hurricane one week from today Southeast of Bermuda and heading West with ridging overhead. It needs to miss the weakness leftover behind Margot if it has a chance of making it West of Bermuda.
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12z GFS is about 50 miles or so SW of the previous run at 90hrs. It's decently slower and on a trajectory for a landfall in extreme Eastern Maine.
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The outflow has really improved the last few hours and the eye appears to be clearing out some. The HAFS is predicting a more or less steady state system until Saturday morning when it starts to feel the cooler SST.
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Hurricane models showed this nicely. Huge expansion of wind field and truck tire eye. Not much strengthening though due to larger size.
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Looks like the 12z EPS mean landfalls in Eastern Maine.
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I don't think this is going to landfall in the US anymore than you do, but a glancing blow is still definitely possible.
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If you look at the steering flow there's no reason to believe it just stops moving NW from this point.
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If you put it into motion it's headed in that direction at a fairly good speed.
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12z HAFS-A is hooking left into SNE as the run ends.
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12z HWRF is similar to the globals with a likely landfall in Eastern Maine or Nova Scotia imminent. Tropical storm force winds make it to the Cape by Saturday afternoon.
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Fairly strong consensus building for a landfall in down East Maine or Nova Scotia. Not really too concerned about New England. That area is used to seeing strong winds during winter storms.
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New England is within the cone of uncertainty. That should tell you all you need to know.
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Most, but not all of the 06z GEFS members steer the next system safely out to sea. Threat is not zero but is minimal at this time.
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IR has improved a lot. Shear looks like it has backed off.
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https://x.com/drewshearer444/status/1700290188189077964?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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12z HAFS brings Lee back up to Cat 5 intensity tomorrow, hitting ~155kts (175 MPH) at 03z Sunday before an ERC on Sunday/Monday which dramatically expands the wind field. Current : vs
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12z ECMWF with a Nova Scotia landfall on Sunday the 17th.
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Still makes landfall in Nova Scotia. A little East of the GFS.
