NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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An even blend of the 12z GFS and Euro gives you temps near 30 degrees in NYC at 12z and much, much colder by 15z. At 15z the GFS is down to 22 degrees at HPN. The GFS drops quite a bit of liquid between 12z and 18z compared to the Euro.
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It was never going to be more than a nascence storm for the city. The power grid is underground and the UHI factor.
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You should include NE NJ. Bergen, Passaic and Morris Counties are not part of NW NJ. When people that live in NJ think of NW NJ they think of Sussex and Warren Counties. Keep in mind the Euro delays the cold the longest and has the least amount of precip after temps fall. The UKMET is the warmest out of all but it should be discarded. It shows the city at 55 degrees while the Euro/GFS blend is 30.5 at 12z Friday.
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Not offered on the free products available on Pivotal Weather.
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The Euro has the city sitting at 33 degrees and plain rain at 12z Friday. The GFS is 28 degrees at the same hour. Temperatures crash after than panel on all guidance.
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It continues to get colder after this panel.
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It's about the same as the 00z run. Gets the significant icing down to Southern Bergen County. The target area is North of I-80 and South of I-84.
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All of the flow at the mid levels are Southwesterly so not much warmer air to come in off the ocean.
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Mesoscale models really starting to hone in now.
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And I live in Bardonia and we're all above ground.
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Most of the power grid down this way is above ground. I know a lot was said about moving it underground after Sandy but it hasn't happened yet. I think most of NYC is underground which is why those areas are more immune to ice storms but the suburbs are a completely different story.
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I think you will see increased wording regarding the ice threat after the Euro comes in, assuming not much changes. They are getting close to the window where they will need to start issuing products.
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That's not a bad call up in your area. You will cool faster aloft and will get more sleet than areas farther South. I think you will need to be well South of 84 for this to be significant.
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Consensus building.
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The threat area really hasn't changed in several days. Truly amazing how locked in most of the guidance has been. 12z GFS is running. First big model of the day.
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Similar to what? The NAM is currently the slowest of all the guidance to bring the cold air in at the surface and is weakest.
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Enough for the entire Hudson Valley to be under an ice storm warning.
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NYC and W LI flip over at the very end.
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Not much ice for the city on this particular run but definitely gets the colder air farther South faster.
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The cold air really presses down through the Hudson Valley this run.
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12z RGEM is brining in the cold air at the surface faster than the 06z run. Should increase ZR amounts further South.
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The model gets a lot more attention than it deserves. It has scored a few points in recent years but overall it's terribly unreliable. The next run could give us 10" of snow. That's how wild it is.
