NJwx85

Looked at the 12z GFS very quickly. The primary makes it to around Albany before transferring to the coast. Seems like a classic late developing miller B. Coastal develops so late that really only Central and Northern New England cash in. The ice threat looks minimal as unlike the last storm, temperatures are warming at the surface. You do have that 1036mb high over SE Canada but it's retreating and not far enough South. We would have wanted it over Northern New England. 850mb freezing line moves well North after 12z Friday. Anyone North of the 0c line on this frame is good for about a 6 hour period of Snow changing to sleet and then some freezing rain before everyone flips over to plain rain. South of this is mostly sleet/ice changing to plain rain. Even over Rockland sounding show the surface around 30 which won't be cold enough to cause significant icing issues, especially since it will be short lived. If you look at the trend for the last four runs, it did actually hang onto the cold air longer after trending warmer the last two runs. Still time to go but we're a long way away from a big snow storm South of I-84.

Of course Winter isn’t over yet. But March is the same as September. Both are transition months. In like a lion, out like a lamb ect. We will have our chances. Just think the modeling favors SNJ, E LI and New England more than it does NYC and points North and West.

63 in Ramsey.

Trough axis looks too far East. Suppression depression.

Monday is the unofficial end for big snow on the coast season. Obviously it can snow into April but the odds strongly diminish after next week. The sun will start to become an issue as well. With temps in the 50’s and 60’s we may start to see some blooming/budding in places. Someone should start a thread for the Thursday night wind event. LLJ is 60+ Kt’s with no inversion. Numerous gusts 50+ mph looks likely.

Many dodged a bullet with this one. Could have been a much different story if the precip with the second low was more intense and widespread.

People have no problem saying that Riverhead is part of the Metro but Orange County might as well be Buffalo.

That’s too far South and the trajectory is too Easterly to hit us.

It really needs to be under 30 for that.

That was always going to be the case but people were throwing the towel in at 1pm. I got mocked for saying that we would be getting a decent amount of ice after 18z. I just wish that when people are missing out on a storm that they didn’t try to downplay it or belittle it for others that are being affected. This forum is a lot bigger than the immediate coast.

Didn’t you hear that this is a non event?

About half of Ulster is without power currently. https://poweroutage.us/area/state/new york

Down to 27 here with -ZR

I believe this is old.

Decent low and mid level frontogenesis aided by the weak low off the NJ coast is causing the precip over Southern and Eastern PA and Central NJ to fill in. Could be a really messy evening commute ahead.

Radar is really firing up over E PA and Central NJ now. Going to be some good bump trolling later.

@Allsnow thought this was an over non event?

Down to 28

And they still didn’t upgrade to a warning.

Watch out, pretty good slug of rain coming up from Central NJ and SE PA.

Still to come.

Stay off the Palisades Parkway in Rockland. Multiple accidents. Very slick per social media.