NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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That would be tremendously costly and wasteful. Planes usually carry significantly more fuel than needed incase something happens and they need to modify the flight plan. Planes that travel over large bodies of water like transatlantic flights carry even more extra fuel.
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The 12z GFS has a 10"+ swath in the rural areas (Mostly dessert) and away from the major population centers. But certainly that amount of rain and intensity on that type of terrain would cause significant issues. It doesn't look like wind will be a major factor as the storm unravels pretty quickly on approach.
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Looks like the forward speed slows down just enough around 30N that things fall apart on final approach. Still would be a very impactful rain/wind event. Not sure how this would compare to some of the strong winter storms that hit California regularly. I know those are generally further North but they do sometimes impact areas close to LA.
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I think the bulk of the activity tonight stays South of I-78 with the exception of an isolated or stray storm.
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Watch for Central and Southern areas.
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https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1691287935927410689?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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The mud nest is a mud dauber. Mostly harmless. They nest alone.
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It’s probably because we’ve had a quite a few premature cool nights this month. Plenty of nights with lows in the 50’s. Tricking them into thinking it’s September already. That’s when they start going nuts because they can sense the end is near.
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Flood watch just issued for here. 1-2" of rain with localized amounts exceeding 4" 11PM tonight until tomorrow AM. This has been a very wet Summer here.
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I wasn't aware that a threat existed for tomorrow night outside of an isolated pop up storm.
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The latest HRRR says otherwise.
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High confidence in thunderstorms, low confidence in the severe threat. They can make further adjustments if needed based on latest guidance/observations.
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It's the timing. Most of the activity around here should come between 08-10z. The 06z 3K NAM soundings do look mildly interesting over the interior.
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HRRR for the win.
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Squall line coming through Hudson Valley now. Looks intense. About to get hammered here.
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Don’t expect anything South of the mid Hudson Valley till after 11pm. Except maybe an isolated storm like what hit Sussex and then Orange.
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Lightning and distant thunder here with the line still 25-30 miles to my SW.
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The part of the line swinging over Morristown looks to be holding together.
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The line is splitting as forecast. One area will go towards SE NY, the other the Delmarva.
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Not sure if this means a new watch is coming further East but it sounds like we will get a new watch somewhere soon.
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Places just to my North up by Woodbury, Stony Point, West Point area are never going to be the same again. Bridges and roadways completely washed away.
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I'm not saying that they shouldn't keep accurate records. Just that if you were "paying nerds to hang over in the park" everyday they would be reporting a whole lot of nothing. I guess that's true about most places though.
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New York City is a pretty boring place to live if you're an extreme weather enthusiast outside of the occasional big blizzard and ultra rare tropical hit.
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An EF4 tornado could pass down 7th Ave during rush hour and New Yorkers would barely notice.
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Today's severe weather threat is dynamically driven. Combination of deepening trough swinging through Ontario and intensifying jet streak coming up the Appalachians. Even with the cloud cover, we're sitting at around 2000 J/KG of SBCAPE and 30-40kts of effective shear. Should be plenty to sustain activity. The 19z HRRR takes the activity in SE PA and brings it through here around 01z. Take a look at the latest supercell composite. Not often you see this around here.
