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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    The motion looks almost Easterly right now. That would prolong time over water. The core appears to be mostly intact, at least based on IR.
  2. NJwx85
    Has anyone heard from Josh since LF? His last tweet was about 5 hrs ago before the worst hit.
  3. NJwx85
    Nova Scotia better watch out. Lots of guidance tracks this very close to Atlantic Canada in about 96hrs. This after hits on Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda likely.
  4. NJwx85
    The eye is slowly constricting as you would expect, but the remainder of the structure is holding together remarkably well considering the land interaction and high terrain.
  5. NJwx85
    It probably peaked about 3 hours ago, but my guess is second LF into Cuba as a high end major. Probably 125kts if I had to guess.
  6. NJwx85
    The water is about the same but shear will be gradually increasing.
  7. NJwx85
    It’s moving almost due North, right along 78W. It should be back over water in 2-3 hours. It’s a much shorter trip than if it was moving more Northeasterly. It also will keep it over water longer before reaching Cuba.
  8. NJwx85
    This is what happens, especially when you consider the high terrain. But, the Northeastern portion of the eye wall is already more than halfway across.
  9. NJwx85
    Do you guys think it will weaken significantly before hitting Cuba? It’s moving awfully fast now and Jamaica is rather narrow, to the point that the Northern eye wall will reemerge rather quickly after landfall.
  10. NJwx85
    It looks like the NE portion of the eye wall is almost on shore. Landfall seems likely in the 3-4 hours.
  11. NJwx85
  12. NJwx85
    This is the shelter Josh chose. It’s a solid concrete hotel. I remember worrying about him with Dorian and Haiyan but he always pulls through. He might be stuck on the island for awhile but he’s prepared as always. I wish he still posted here.
  13. NJwx85
    That part of the basin was also running 3-4 degrees C above average. The water there is in the mid to upper 80’s. Pure rocket fuel, which went untapped all season. We knew this would blow up as soon as the shear relaxed. It was a very vigorous wave that made it all the way from Africa and overcame a lot to make it there. The vortex is highly battle tested.
  14. NJwx85
    ERC’s and what causes them are still largely unknown.
  15. NJwx85
    -80c cloud tops have now completely wrapped around the entire CDO. It’s definitively a higher end Cat 5 at this point.
  16. NJwx85
    Looks like tidbits is having issues. Server overload it seems.
  17. NJwx85
    As others pointed out, it has made the loop. Looks like that’s it. Locked and loaded on Jamaica now. Looks like recon is well timed. Peak intensity likely here.
  18. NJwx85
    It seems almost a certainty at this point that Melissa reaches 79W. I wonder if the close proximity to the mountainous terrain in Jamaica is somehow impacting the steering flow.
  19. NJwx85
  20. NJwx85
    They kept it at 175mph. However the discussion says the inbound aircraft might find Melissa stronger than 150kts.
  21. NJwx85
    Latest Dvorak estimates are in the 165 to 170kts neighborhood. I bet we get 160kts at 5pm.
  22. NJwx85
    On a side note, -80C cloud tops or colder have now wrapped around the Eastern 2/3rds of the CDO. Hard to remember that happening before in the Atlantic. Only other example I can recall is Dorian at peak intensity.
  23. NJwx85
    The mean motion is more Westerly again. I think we’re seeing an example of an intense hurricane amplifying the ridging to its North. This of course is being counteracted by the trough building into the Southeast US and making for quite the battle. I fully expect the eventual hard turn but Melissa continues to track to the West of most guidance and the official track. Even these small shifts can have major implications regarding landfall location.
  24. NJwx85
    The Northern turn has begun but it’s more of NW turn than true North. At this point it might get close to 79W before it crosses 17N.
  25. NJwx85
    It doesn’t appear to be turning yet. What you saw was a wobble back to the North to counteract the wobble South and maintain the mean motion West. It’s moving at 3mph. The steering flow is weak. The ridge to the North will gradually weaken thanks to the trough that’s building into the Southeast US. As it weakens, Melissa will feel the weakness and gradually turn North.
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