Jump to content

NJwx85

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    19,658

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    cap cod sounds like an elegant fish dish.
  2. NJwx85
    Couldn’t agree more. I think the heavier rates will help to overcome the borderline mid level warming. The charge to sleet probably only happens once a majority of the precip has already fallen, sometime after 02-03z.
  3. NJwx85
    Nice trend on the 3k NAM
  4. NJwx85
    The NAM is prone to very large run to run swings, even in the short term and it usually overdoes everything which leads to wild solutions at times. I can think of only one event where it was very different from the consensus and ended up being right. Very few mets use it to make a forecast. It’s primarily fun to look at. It does have its usefulness but I certainly wouldn’t favor it over other guidance.
  5. NJwx85
    The UKMET has a warm bias so seeing it this cold is a red flag that the warning might be slightly overdone.
  6. NJwx85
    Honestly, while the threat for sleet at the end is increasing somewhat, many here are way overreacting. Take a compromise and you get one heck of a snowstorm for just about everyone.
  7. NJwx85
    All that really matters anymore is where the primary transfers to the coast. The further North that happens, the more warm air will be pumped in but also the more precip there will be. It’s a double edged sword. The rest is just noise.
  8. NJwx85
    You’re consistently the most pessimistic poster here so your comment isn’t surprising.
  9. NJwx85
    Latest
  10. NJwx85
    There’s going to be a 6-8hr window where rates are at least 1” per hour. From about 15z to 00z.
  11. NJwx85
    Kuchera is 13.2 for NYC. 17.3 for MMU 17.4 SWF 16.4 HPN 11.4 ISP
  12. NJwx85
    Great run for everyone.
  13. NJwx85
    Overall it’s actually a tick colder by 06z. It also has the coastal about 100 miles further West at 06z Monday and it’s still snowing back to Ohio.
  14. NJwx85
    By 18z Sunday GFS is a tick North. Mix line into South Jersey vs DE Bay.
  15. NJwx85
    Through 12z Sunday very little change on the 18z GFS.
  16. NJwx85
    Yeah but it’s awfully close now. The JP zone has shifted to up near 84.
  17. NJwx85
    ZR on ICON
  18. NJwx85
    Also, the 18z 3k NAM is not bad North of I-80. Even losing some to virga, I counted 17 hours of moderate to heavy snow before any mixing takes place for my area. Basically 12z Sunday to 03Z Monday. And after 05z it’s pretty much drizzle from the Suffolk County line West.
  19. NJwx85
    18z ICON is one hell of an ice storm South of I-80. Plain rain on the Jersey coast up to about Tom’s River.
  20. NJwx85
    That NAM run wasn’t great but we’re still 36hrs out and things are going to continue to fluctuate. Any further North and there’s going to be some serious ZR issues for Southern parts of the area. Even as is, the NAM has about a 30 mile swath of 0.10 to 0.20 more or less over 95 with closer to a half inch South of Philly and into DC.
  21. NJwx85
    Off topic but GFS still has the big Miller A 2/2-2/3.
  22. NJwx85
    It’s a bit less than the GFS but not terrible.
  23. NJwx85
    The 3k NAM has the mix line near I-80.
  24. NJwx85
    Warmest panel is 03z. Sleet briefly into NYC, then dry slot.
  25. NJwx85
    00z Monday, still all snow from NYC North. Mixing gets into SI and Southern Brooklyn but it’s very close.
×
×
  • Create New...