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Everything posted by NJwx85
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The rain isn't moving North. It's going to sit and pivot over the same areas. That's why someone is going to end up on the extreme end of the rainfall estimates.
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Look at the radar. Pretty much everyone from about the Passaic/Morris County line East is in it for the next several hours.
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Currently unloading here in NW Bergen County. Everything is starting to flood. And the wind is starting to pick up too.
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Absolutely pouring here in Rockland.
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It’s starting to pivot West. Ground zero looks like the LHV.
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https://x.com/nynjpaweather/status/1707512095112081411?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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NAM having major feedback issues. All I can say is LOL
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This is a tropical system. It's what is leftover from Ophelia that is fueling this.
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I would still lean on the high res meso models but the globals all have the same general idea of a large swath of 2-3" or rain. Wherever the training sets up will see 5-6"+
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You only posted through 03z Saturday. The storm isn't over until Saturday afternoon at best.
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While the GFS lacks the resolution to show the details, it has the same general idea.
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This is about so much more than QPF totals. SREF probabilities are off the charts.
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The GFS lacks the resolution. Definitely would lean hard on the meso's with this. This is pretty insane.
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Still hanging around on Saturday.
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The 12z HRRR seems to be focusing the heaviest axis of rain East of the Hudson.
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If the HRRR verifies the river flooding along the Passaic basin could approach Irene levels. Water levels are already way above normal.
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The HRRR develops more rain tonight.
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Moderate rain and breezy here. You can see axis of steadiest rain North of NYC.
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The HRRR has a swath of 2-4” today over extreme NNJ and the LHV.
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Yes the models pivot it through our region.