NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Hard to see, but here are the 12z GEFS at hr 60. Some big hits in there. GFS PRS ENSEMBLE (HOUR 60)
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You're what's commonly referred to as a jinx.
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Canadian moving towards the GFS.
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If the GFS is correct, it will be puking snow for about an 8-12hr period on Sunday night.
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Okay, I'm officially excited. Almost 2" liquid into NYC and 1"+ back into PA and Upstate NY.
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Since it will be asked, looks like start time would be Sunday early afternoon, from Southwest to Northeast. Heaviest snow would be Sunday evening/night with most of it over by this time on Monday with some residual bands possible as the storm starts to rot just East of the benchmark.
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This run occludes about 6 hours later so the deformation banding is able to get further North and West. So just about everyone here would be looking at 12-18" with locally up to 30" possible under the heaviest banding, most likely Suffolk County.
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I don't care what the clown maps show, 2-4" per hour under this banding.
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990mb to 976mb six hours later lol.
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It's actually just a tick South so far.
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I'm honestly a little shocked. I thought for sure that this would be the cycle that the GFS trended worse but it's already better early on.
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I will say this and I don't care how arrogant it sounds, if you're worried about mixing in this scenario then you need to find a new hobby.
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This is a classic deformation band system. If you're under the banding, you will get dumped on. If you're not under the banding, you won't get much. This is similar to, "holds my nose" Juno and the Boxing day 2010 system. The one we had in January was a completely different setup even though both are Miller B's.
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The reason for the sharp cutoff on the NW side is because the storm stacks and occludes around 12z on Monday. We could use another 50-75 mile shift NW to get into the high end stuff. You're also looking at near blizzard conditions for Long Island and coastal NJ.
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Bid deformation band incoming. Still looks like a Central Jersey special but this is well North of the last run.
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Pretty close to textbook for a big Noreaster.
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H5 on the NAM looks good. it digs a bit less which is better in this case and the trough is stronger and more negatively tilted.
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The spread is crazy considering we’re under 72 hours.
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Heavy snow Sunday night with near Blizzard conditions, especially South and East of the city.
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Wagons North!
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Much better look for us.
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No real changes on the GFS through 60 hrs. Maybe just a hair slower at closing off the trough over the mid-west.
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The 18z GFS is not a huge hit LOL, but it is a tick further North than the 12z run was. It would be enough for a low end warning level storm for most.
