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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    The persistent Easterly flow that we’ve had all week certainly has made things worse.
  2. NJwx85
    I think the mostly offshore, low to no impact solutions are off the table now. The storm is already forming.
  3. NJwx85
    The 12z RGEM is an intense storm too but because of where it stalls, the winds would be northerly, and then offshore, saving the NJ coast from the worst flooding.
  4. NJwx85
    Also the timing is wildly different. The storm is still intensifying as the run ends. And there’s a ridiculous amount of rain lurking just offshore.
  5. NJwx85
  6. NJwx85
    The 3k NAM has a small area of hurricane force surface winds NW of the center on Saturday afternoon. Incredible.
  7. NJwx85
    The 3k NAM is wildly different lol. Gets down into the 960’s with a more expansive precip shield. It also goes nuts with low level shear. There would definitely be water spouts coming onshore if it verifies.
  8. NJwx85
    The NAM already starts weakening the storm by Saturday morning. It’s a very different setup than the EURO. It’s also very sparse with rainfall. Could be convective feedback or the fact that the NAM is terrible at handling coastal storms with tropical characteristics.
  9. NJwx85
    I hope we get tracks like this in 3 months.
  10. NJwx85
    No. This is a nasty nor’easter. It reminds me of March 2010, if you’re old enough to remember that one.
  11. NJwx85
    It will have some tropical characteristics, but it’s generated from baroclinic forcing. There might appear to be an eye, but that’s just dry air near the center. It’s a typical nor’easter that’s being enhanced because of warm SST and proximity to the Gulf Stream. So while it might look like a tropical storm the physics behind it are far different.
  12. NJwx85
    It’s not warm core and anyone that says it is is just hyping. Warm core cyclones don’t behave like this.
  13. NJwx85
    He’s a tool. The reason it weakens is because it becomes vertically stacked and occludes, because it’s cold core. Tropical systems don’t weaken when they become stacked.
  14. NJwx85
    2-4” of rain wouldn’t have a high impact around here, especially in the spread out fashion. Winds and coastal flooding look to be the main concerns.
  15. NJwx85
    On Halloween in 2024 it was 85 degrees here and we had very little snow that Winter FWIW.
  16. NJwx85
    The day before Sandy, the GFS had it land falling in Maine.
  17. NJwx85
    Cold winters and snowy winters are not the same.
  18. NJwx85
    The threat of a low to moderate impact event is high. It remains to be seen if the idea of a stronger system materializes.
  19. NJwx85
    On the Euro, you would be looking at a potentially major coastal flooding event. Tides are already running above average because of the persistent Easterly flow and you would be looking at 30-40kts winds beginning Thursday evening, increasing to 40-45kts by Friday evening. Winds subside over the weekend but the Easterly flow remains so the water really has no chance to drain out. It looks particularly bad on the Sound.
  20. NJwx85
    Because it occludes.
  21. NJwx85
    The shear should slide East.
  22. NJwx85
    Lots of tornado warnings and reports of tornadoes on the ground and big hail in Western NY. All that fun arrives here overnight.
  23. NJwx85
    September is typically the best overall weather month around here with May as a close second. But after about October 10th things go downhill fast. Worst part is losing daylight at a rapid pace. The good news if you hate Winter like me, is that the period of really cold weather and darkness is only about 8 weeks long.
  24. NJwx85
    Pouring in Central Rockland but no lightning.
  25. NJwx85
    5000 J/KG of SBCAPE in PA
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