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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    As I have been saying all along, it comes down to whether or not the Southern vort is timed well with the incoming trough. If it's too fast like the 12z ECMWF and now 18z GFS shows, the trough will kick it out. If it's too slow it could phase early and you could get a super amplified trough and rain at the coast. Has to be timed perfectly. Still time for this one but there is no denying that this was a major nod towards the Euro.
  2. NJwx85
    Waive bye bye
  3. NJwx85
    It's caving to the Euro.
  4. NJwx85
    Moving ahead to day four. Looks like the GFS is caving to the Euro. The Southern vort is too far out ahead of the trough axis since it's slower and your surface low here is way offshore.
  5. NJwx85
    The only real change on the GFS through 78hrs is that it is slower with the trough.
  6. NJwx85
    The 00z GGEM is yet another possibility. The important Southern stream piece that comes into Oregon tomorrow is seen here off the Northeast coast. It's running so far out ahead of the trough that it doesn't phase in until the system is over Canada and you end up with a very amplified pattern and further West track.
  7. NJwx85
    If you look at the last four runs of GFS valid 00z Wednesday the model seems to be handling that piece the same way, albeit with slightly different timing and degrees of amplification. But it is phasing it in rather than shearing it out like the Euro. It would be inaccurate to say that the GFS is trending one way or another. It has been consistent at least over the last 24 hours. We will see what happens with the next run shortly.
  8. NJwx85
    Here is the 06z GFS, you can see that initial piece phasing in which amplifies the trough. The 00z Euro shears the piece out and you're left with a positively tilted trough.
  9. NJwx85
    The animated image I was trying to embed in the post wouldn't work for some reason. I don't know what I am doing wrong. I always used to be able to embed directly from Imugr. In any event, I think the key player is that Southern vort. It will be coming into Oregon tomorrow. If that piece doesn't phase with the incoming trough due to poor timing the system will be either weak or too far offshore. The Euro seems to want to shear it out so there's that too.
  10. NJwx85
    Tip, I think the Southern stream vort that will be coming into the Pacific Northwest late tomorrow night continues to be the key player. This piece shown below on the GFS is well timed and eventually becomes part of the storm over the deep South.
  11. NJwx85
    Late developing Miller A’s are rough. March 2001 comes to mind. They favor New England not NYC.
  12. NJwx85
    Just inside the BM would be fine.
  13. NJwx85
    Close to the coast is what we want. You want a rapidly deepening system and then the rest will take care of itself.
  14. NJwx85
    18z GFS is a big hit as predicted
  15. NJwx85
    18z GFS is going to probably be West of 12z. The southern vort is more amped up than 12z and the trough axis is further West.
  16. NJwx85
    Same type of situation with a squall line feature that moves SW to NE.
  17. NJwx85
    My idea of a perfect Winter is 60's and sunny with the occasional snow threat.
  18. NJwx85
    Because you literally have a piece of the polar vortex dropping down. You would be looking at highs struggling to get much above 20 degrees even at the coast.
  19. NJwx85
    The initial Southern stream vort which will be the major key to this storm is way too fast on the Euro and why whatever storm develops is way out to sea. The incoming trough acts more like a kicker here.
  20. NJwx85
    I don't think this is going West of the mountains but I think a costal hugger or a track right overhead like you said is certainly within the range of possibilities.
  21. NJwx85
    The key piece here is the Southern vort near Texas on Monday. That has to get out ahead of the deepening trough coming down from the Plains. If that piece is too far out ahead it will get kicked OTS. If too slow we will have a cutter. This is far from a slam dunk. Right now it's a bit too far out ahead so the system deepens more after it passes us and closes off over Maine. First shot at a true Miller A this season.
  22. NJwx85
    Problem will be the Passaic River which is still rising and not forecasted to crest until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Any additional rain will prolong the major flooding into early next week as indicated on the hydrograph predictions.
  23. NJwx85
    After the Mother of all snowstorms a few weeks prior.
  24. NJwx85
    This is typical of a moderate to strong El Nino. Warm, wet pattern with lots of storm chances and not much cold air.
  25. NJwx85
    A lot of the river areas in Northern NJ were resort areas for people in the city during the 40's and 50's when people would vacation out in the country. That is when a lot of these areas were built up. It was a quiet period without a lot of major flooding and you could actually swim and fish in the Pompton river without fear. My Dad grew up in the Sam's Maple Grove section of Lincoln Park and would tell stories about swimming in the river as a kid. Then the 60's were bad with floods with 1968 being the worst. And then you had an almost 20 year quiet period until the big flood of 1984 which set records that were only broken with Irene in 2011. That's the problem. You can sometimes get a 10-20 year stretch with no issues and then a period like this happens with two major floods in less than a month and the potential for more in this pattern. The house my Dad grew up in was finally knocked down after Irene. My Grandfather and three of my Dad's uncles helped build the majority of the houses back there. Not much of what was there is still standing.
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