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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if we don't cash in with the storm towards the end of next week, our next chance won't come until mid February.
  2. NJwx85
    Orographically enhanced lift.
  3. NJwx85
    Does this look like a cold pattern to you in the East?
  4. NJwx85
    I'd rather see what gives me the most snow. And so does everyone else here. I'm just being honest about it. If I had to make a public forecast, 2-4" for the immediate coast and city looks likely. 4-6" North of 287 in Westchester and 4-6" West of the Hudson in the LHV. A bit less East of the city, with mostly rain for the South facing shore areas. Rain changing over to snow for the I-78 corridor. 1-3" for both of those areas. 6"+ possible well North and West.
  5. NJwx85
    Of course you would, but you live in South Jersey. That's the same distance from NYC to Riverhead. So in other words, two completely different worlds meteorologically.
  6. NJwx85
    The next storm never had a chance of making it up this way. This storm reinforces the block and brings the arctic high in behind it. There's a chance at something this time next week before the pattern completely breaks down. We could reach 60 degrees before the end of the month as a southeast ridge develops and the pattern supports cutters.
  7. NJwx85
    The next real threat around here will be towards the end of next week as the blocking breaks down and the cold air departs.
  8. NJwx85
    Not just that the RGEM might be over amped. It's a sign that perhaps some of the modeling is too strong. Again, I'm not giving it much weight at this stage given that the rest of the guidance appears mostly locked in.
  9. NJwx85
    The NAM is a good model inside of 36hours. It's good for those that know how to use it. And it's better with certain setups than others.
  10. NJwx85
    When the NAM is this flat at this range, it can sometimes mean that the other models are over amped. Again, it's an outlier right now.
  11. NJwx85
    12Z GFS has a high of 15 in Washington DC on Monday after 6-8" on Sunday, slightly warmer here. Going to be a strategical nightmare.
  12. NJwx85
    Out of area, but would be historic next week.
  13. NJwx85
    Not really, because the NAM beyond 48hrs is historically over amped. That's why it normally overblows totals and then gradually corrects inside of 36hrs.
  14. NJwx85
    It's a bit troublesome to me that the NAM is so weak with development. I think it's because it's quite a bit less amped up than even the 12z GFS. Usually in this type of setup the NAM would be showing a coastal hugger. It's completely on its own and the rest of the modeling has been fairly consistent so I'm largely tossing it, but it's still possible that things don't get going quickly enough.
  15. NJwx85
    We would be fine here in Rockland County even on the RGEM. Got to be able to smell the rain to get the heaviest snowfall.
  16. NJwx85
    12z RGEM is mostly snow, and heavy just to the NW of NYC proper. This is one of those storms where it could be ripping snow on the Palisades Parkway and raining in midtown. But even in this scenario, mostly everyone would flip to a burst of heavy snow at the end except for the far East end.
  17. NJwx85
    I like a quick 4-6" Sunday night into early Monday morning pretty much region wide. It could be slightly more than that if things play out perfectly.
  18. NJwx85
    Lots of potential here.
  19. NJwx85
    It's already noticeably more light out. If I leave work right at 5 I can almost make it home before total darkness. A sign of better things to come. Only another month or so of this garbage left. Only 35 days until pitchers and catchers.
  20. NJwx85
    This failed because of timing. It happens. There might be something good around the 20th before the pattern flips.
  21. NJwx85
    I'm showing 34 degrees at the surface at 18z Saturday near Newark.
  22. NJwx85
    What snow?
  23. NJwx85
    This is what happens when the system doesn't phase until it's past us. As you can see, the eventual coastal deepens quite dramatically offshore.
  24. NJwx85
    The storm saw the new congestion pricing and decided to take a hard right turn.
  25. NJwx85
    Yeah I thought the trough looked better initially but it actually ends up worse than the GFS.
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