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  • Birthday 05/10/1984

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    Mooresville, NC

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  1. Not the 0z OP run (12z still coming in) but the EPS is similar with large HP overhead and a weak area low LP off the east coast. Good enough for now. BTW here is the mean MSLP on teh GEFS at 264 hrs. Nice overrunning type event here:
  2. It's a good trend I will say. Hopefully it continues. Here is depth at 288 hrs.
  3. Great split flow pattern showing up on the GFS with HP ruling overhead. That will give multiple shots of potential storm events as waves roll across.
  4. Yes the GFS does look good there. That looks like a long overrunning type event.
  5. Oh man, pivotal weather now has hi res upper air 6 hr maps for the Euro and soundings in addition to the surface data. The times are changing.
  6. Yep.. actually it was quite a favorable pattern for a couple of weeks prior. Remember getting 2-3" in Statesville around the middle of the month which slightly tampered the horror of Jan 25 while watching everyone south and east of me get hammered. Never saw a single flurry that day.
  7. It's way early, but I've got a bit of an eye on the big low expected to slam California around New Years. Models all over the place with it but possible it digs so far south it leaves a piece behind. Fingers crossed that we draw in some cold air ahead of it. Ensembles are showing lower heights over SE Canada/Northeast which would point us in the right direction for cold HP to build in the following week after New Years. 18z GFS pretty close to that, though suppresses it. That's all there is to talk about as far as snow chances go in the long range for our area. GFS @144
  8. If only we had some good CAD in place this would have been an epic winter storm.
  9. Well, well.. look who's back. Temps on the cusp with retreating HP but still in the game.
  10. 18z GFS more phasing at 102.. this one is coming more north
  11. 12z GEPS - Ensemble MSLP placements.. big change from 0z. Want to see the low trend faster to start moving precip up while the HP is in optimal position.
  12. I still think the setup is favorable for a winter storm for parts of the SE based on the overall pattern. Models are still all over the place and usually are with this kind of setup. The 50/50 low and a cutoff ULL sliding under the Canadian ridge.. it's usually a good outcome. I think there will be most phasing of the ULL by the time it reaches the SE coast to bring it further up.
  13. Abv avg December in the books more than likely. I wonder how this would look if the members weren't so perturbed ?