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  • Birthday 05/10/1984

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    Mooresville, NC

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  1. All that complaining today and the 18z gfs still wants to give you a nice overrunning event.
  2. It's not that big and would be suppressed by the -NAO signal.
  3. 12z GFS Day 6-10 500mb anomalies. November looking like a solid BN month. Day 11-15, some AN 500mb height over the SE but with a PV still over E Canada
  4. Cold Rain is correct.. Unless you're disappointed that the redux of the Nov App Superstorm of 1950 isn't coming, you'll be satisfied. This pattern will bring at or below normal temps for the rest of the month. The presence of sustained high latitude blocking, especially around Greenland, is a good sign. Hopefully it continues into December.
  5. Raise salaries... oh wait.
  6. That's way out.. ignore it. Trust me.
  7. 0z GFS is more in line with the Euro really consolidating a PV over the NE after T-giving. Looks good. T-giving day is a cold, rainy day. Get those fireplaces ready. 1pm temps on Thursday with a GOM low moving up:
  8. 18z operational was nothing to write home about, but the ensembles are still showing quite a spread beyond 72. The hope here is that the s/w dropping well south will fully phase and pull the PV over the NE. BTW, the cumulative snow map for the Euro by end of run on D10 is excellent. Lots of snowfall over SE Canada and the NE.
  9. Still looks like a big phasing event possible next week. Watch this wave.
  10. For the SE, November is looking quite a bit colder compared to the last couple of years and there is some correlation to that for the following DJF season. It's more likely we'll end up colder (and wetter) than the past few winters. The increased high lat blocking seems to be a big factor this year.
  11. By 240 on the GEFS, all the members are worlds apart. Mystery abounds but the amount of high lat blocks we're going to see is very good to see. The rest of November looks at or below normal, and I'll take it.
  12. A high of 51.3.. once again lower than forecast of 54. Tomorrow may be the warmest day we see in a while with a forecast high of 65. I've got a lot of leaves to blow this weekend.
  13. The -NAO is consistent on the models.. Outside of that it's a big bowl-full of "I don't know." Beyond 5 days, it's a crap shoot. The upper flow is going to be knotted up with significant polar blocking. Based on history, we're looking for some good times ahead. It's been a few years since we've seen this kind of look.
  14. Pattern locked and loaded for a November. Bodes well for DJF based on the odds. 18z GFS is a cold turkey day.. not getting out of the 30s.
  15. Topping off at 50 looks like. Once again, the clouds held on all day and came in cooler than forecast. That's been the trend recently.