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About phil882

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  • Birthday 12/09/1988

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Albany, NY
  • Interests
    Golf, Weather

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  1. phil882

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Ask and you shall receive! Haven't been here in a while, but I wouldn’t miss a chance to check in with my old friends here. I’m out now on the west coast in a location (Monterey, CA) that never gets snow so now I get to live vicariously through you all. To keep things on topic, one thing I’d lookout for is the front end precipitation rates (now-midnight). Have a feeling those in the WNC mountains will over preform with snow accumulation in the early going for this system, as the frontogenesis on the front end band is probably being a bit underforecasted given the impressive 40-45 dBz band seen on radar upstream. For upstate SC, it will depend if the precip rates get high enough to bring the entire 800-sfc column to isothermal. We still have a ways to go for those still in the 40F range, but there is already plenty of mixing for those in the 35-37F range, so once the stronger band moves in, we should see most of the northern upstate (North of I-85) flip over to wet snow before the warm nose comes in.
  2. Thanks! I sort of wish I had spent a few more days in Greenville before heading to Seattle so I could have enjoyed the snowstorm. Subpar planning on my part
  3. Hey guys. Not sure if anyone remembers me, but I'm excited to see many of you cashing in on this really impressive overrunning snowfall event. The rain/snow line has been firmly holding around I-85, but I think as the last batch of significant precip moves through overnight and early this morning the 850-hPa 0C line which has been nearly stationary the last 6 hours or so will begin to shift south and those that have been shut out so far (i.e., south of I-85) will pick up some accumulating snowfall by daybreak when the event wraps up. I was actually in Greenville, SC just a few days ago, so I'm a little bummed I just missed how impressive this event has become for the southeast! I do have a few HRRR maps going to should be updating hourly for you guys to watch the event (centered on Charlotte and Atlanta respectively). Let me know if you guys have any more requests! URL: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_flt.php Frontogenesis maps (useful to show where greatest forcing for precipitation along the frontal boundary) URL: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#diag Cheers everyone
  4. phil882

    Feb 9th Coastal Obs

    Incredible snowfall rates back here in Albany under a very intense band. Got 5"+ of snow since the beginning of the event about 2 hours ago! This has been one remarkable band!
  5. phil882

    February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion

    Completely agree with you both. As the cyclone really gets cranking, the sloped frontogenesis that is further north and west at 700-600 hPa should crash east and become more aligned with lower level frontogenesis associated with the rapidly deepening cyclone. Feel like somebody in C-E Massachusetts is really going to in for some incredible snowfall rates by tomorrow midday.
  6. phil882

    February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion

    Correct... there will likely be an enhanced band further inland that will be tapping into the best lift that coincides with the -12 to -18C dendritic growth zone. Thats how you can get those huge dendritic aggregates that produce the best snowfall liquid ratios.
  7. phil882

    February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion

    What gives you that indication? If anything the 18z GFS initialization looks a bit stronger at 850hPa than the 6hr fcast from the 12z GFS. Edit: I see it's slightly less amplified after initialization...
  8. phil882

    February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion

    Keep an eye on the HRRR frontogenesis plots. The axis of the 700-hPa frontogenesis is likely to be along and poleward where you will see the best snowfall ratios. Right now the latest run has the axis over NW NJ - Far South NY but north of NYC - NW Connecticut - Central MA. Folks equatorward will still get decent snowfall accumulation, but may not have the best ice crystal composition (more rimmed/needle like snow flakes) since the strongest -omega will be occurring at temperatures above the dendritic growth zone. Loop of the HRRR Frontogenesis: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_fgen_all_alb.php
  9. phil882

    Jan 6-8 Winter Storm Observations

    Really tough storm to predict storm for northeast GA. There has been a pretty pesky inverted trough & thermal ridge that has made northeast Georgia one of the warmest spots relative to latitude for this event. It's just hard sometimes with these weaker synoptic systems, where the cold air bleeds around the Appalachians, but areas directly S of the highest peaks suffer because they can't take advantage of the CAA northwesterly flow that NW Georgia receives, nor the CAA northeasterly CAD flow that the Carolinas receive.
  10. phil882

    Jan 6-8 Winter Storm Observations

    Yep... this is pretty much what the HRRR was showing earlier. Basically I-85 is the snow/mix line tonight.... right up to Charlotte. Hopefully it will bow down for you guys again as the rates pick back up and dynamical cooling via melting snowflakes erodes the warm nose aloft.
  11. phil882

    Jan 6-8 Winter Storm Observations

    Oh I meant the report from Lake Toxaway that the KGSP WFO mentioned in their AFD. I think he posted a couple hours ago with photos that he already had 3" of snow. Lucky dude
  12. phil882

    Jan 6-8 Winter Storm Observations

    Is that you Rainforrest???
  13. phil882

    Jan 6-8 Winter Storm Observations

    What I would give to be near KAVL right now... looks like they have been reporting +SN at the ASOS for a couple of hours now.
  14. phil882

    Jan 6-8 Winter Storm Observations

    Enjoy the snow guys! Glad to see so many familiar names still here on the southeastern forums! I'll be living vicariously here though your obs
  15. phil882

    Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

    Good point... see in the case of the the Jan 2002 storm you had a lot of upper-level forcing that was running the show (i.e., the 500hPa low was stronger than the sfc vortex) so where the 500-hPa low went, so did the other low-level features in tandem slightly to the south and east (with the exception of the sfc vortex). The surface vortex is a trickier entity to figure out because at the surface there is always a lot of natural baroclinicity offshore (because the gulf stream is so warm, and the land immediately adjacent is typically much colder). This event is closer in setup to the January 1988 snowstorm which was almost all frontogenesis/overrunning precipitation which featured a broad open 500-hPa wave.