weatherwiz

I saw garbage cans and recycling cans flipped over on the way to the highway this morning...considered stopping to pick them up but I was running late and y commute is an hour.

Great post..especially with regards to the spatial anomaly discussion. The system was certainly anomalous (defining this by 500 height anomalies as well as other anomalies involved), however, the output was not completely anomalous when you compare the output to the product responsible for the output.

If it were a sting jet though wouldn't we have seen a period of anomalous gusts? (Gusts that were much higher than the mean over a period of time?) If as that went through and there was a swath of gusts like 65-70+ mph I think you could certainly argue sting jet...but the magnitude of the gusts don't seem to be much of an outlier of what was experienced with the CAA and pressure rises.

That had absolutely nothing to do with a stinger...not even remotely close. Take a look at BDL's hourly obs...the winds began to crank as they switched to N and then NW. It roared all night b/c the winds shifted right around midnight...which is exactly what some of us said.

Just heard what was either 1) the neighbors banging (not physically...they’re always banging doors or walls) 2) transformer pop 3) tree fall power back on! Back to sleep...up in 90 min

Power just went out in Windsor Locks...right after I put my phone to charge

Major, major kudos to models for sniffing that out and being consistent with it as well. I feel like models have gotten much better with this particular feature over the past several years with model upgrades

There is going to be a decent narrow swath of some decent damage and gusts with that thing.

That meso-low is cranking F3C9D660-83F4-4F92-8E0B-100397985DB5.mov

driving. I have trouble seeing the lines in the road. I need to acquire brighter headlights.

I'm just glad the rain will be done well before 4:47 AM. 1) I can't see in the dark and 2) When it's raining and dark I CAN'T SEE AT ALL

23z HRRR cranks us as the winds switch NW...has some pretty solid gusts. Enjoy

a sting jet like feature is different than a sting jet

That doesn't always happen...there is much more involved in that process. What will happen once the dry slot arrives is the llvl lapse rates are going to steepen...at this time and juncture the sfc low will be passing to our north and a bit east...once the flow becomes more northwest and we are in the core of the pressure gradient that is when we are going to get our winds...not with convection, not with a sting jet, but CAA.

I don't see any sting jet. Also, that dry slot is really starting to become defined and seems to be accelerating. Probably only 3-4 hours of heavy rain left

Agreed

Looks like the low may cut right up through CT...going to be tough to get winds like that with the low tracking over our fannies. The core of the LLJ is going east of us. Wait until the winds switch NW...then we'll crank.

Looks like those pixels may have passed close by

Cape will get rocked. James will have a new book title, "Awoken Before Dawn"

Where was the 60 gust in NJ? Wasn’t it along the coast? Looks like some 60+ knot pixels passed through the circled area

Which is within the window when our winds switch to more NW and we start getting winds from the backside.

Wow that's pretty impressive. They're going to rip like crazy for a brief time should this verify...thankfully it should be brief otherwise power issues would be pretty significant. Heck...even brief duration of these winds would do a number We'll gust 35-45 mph easily with the backside winds but I don't think we see those associated with the rain or convection

It has been very consistent with this has some other models. This is the best chance for really good winds and across these areas.

I'm still not buying the huge winds (until we kiss the backside later overnight) outside of any convective elements. The rain is going to further stabilize the column (especially llvls) and like forky has mentioned a few times, the llvl lapse rates are garbage...including 2-6 km lapse rates. Outside of perhaps the extreme outer Cape, the LLJ likely isn't going to strengthen that much more than it is now...which is there is little momentum transfer doesn't matter much if it did anyways. The real winds will come from the pressure gradient which we get to experience as this undergoes bombogenesis as its lifting through New England (the backside winds!)