weatherwiz

Analyzing mesoanalysis and several tools on there I would have to think the models which have shown/come more west will end up being correct in that regard.

Look at that fronto already!

Jesus

great what's next? Pete Rose gets his ban lifted from baseball

Made a map to up my totals for CT but I was just looking at the NAM bufkit for BDL and see only 10 units of omega within the SGZ...is that actually enough to warrant moderate to heavy snow? Maybe I underestimated that thinking it's not much when it really is...?

This is sick!!! new addition

The NAM has some insane LLJ...especially at 925mb. An extensive jet streak of >80 knots with > 90 knots at 925. Stronger than the GFS...I wonder if this is a big reason for such high QPF amounts...especially back into a good chunk of CT. What meteorological reasons sort of determine how far from the center frontogenesis banding occurs? Even looking at H7 low track...w/o looking at fronto I would guess it is east of what NAM shows.

ahhh thanks!!! I've been reading this wrong the entire time...I would always match the yellow/purple lines with the height levels on the right hand side. So for the purple line when it says 0, 5, and 10 and 15 and 20 for yellow that's the temperatures (obviously negative though)

IJD certainly looks real solid. I think my concern with this back across CT is just how to forecast this b/c this is really all about the banding here and there is going to be some crazy gradients. Determining where the band sets up, how narrow/wide the band is, and how it propagates determines what we see. I think outside of the band there will be issues with good snow rates/snow growth.

woah...is that a free or pay site? this is cool (no pun intended)

hmmm...I took screen shots of what I was looking at. Maybe I misinterpret the SGZ on bufkit (I still don't know if I fully understand the purple and yellow contours...even though people have told me...I just forget...need to write it down). But what I interpreted was how the SGZ seemed to decrease (slope down to the left) that this meant the SGZ was lowering below the desired height (12K-18K). -15C intersects which is great and plenty of RH within the zone...what I meant by dry was just the look on the skew-t's...though GFS seemed fully saturated.

This whole setup...well not necessairly the setup but looking over the data there is much much that stands out at being rather odd. Obviously, the NAM frontogenesis maps suggest we see some heavy/intense banding across a good portion of CT...but you look at NAM bufkit soundings across CT and outside of IJD these profiles don't seem very impressive too me. Omega within the SGZ at BDL and WTBY are crap...and the SGZ really just flops as we near noon. OTOH, GFS bufkit at IJD screams major subsidence across eastern CT and llvl subsidence further west with not much going on in the SGZ. This will disappoint many in CT (outside of who gets under the band). Not to mention I still think this whole system away from the storm's center is nothing but banded precip

Looking at forecast soundings across CT for tomorrow I notice that many places don't see a fully saturated column...I can't see that as being a good thing. My guess is that could to a quite a bit of evaporative cooling. Virtually if you aren't under the snow band the snow growth and snow rates are going to suck big time. Looks like the snow growth zone also goes to hell as well like right after mid-morning as well.

yeah I think so. I think what happens is when they deepen so quickly (similar to tropical systems) perhaps the big pressure gradients leads to precip becoming more band-like b/c you'll getting rapidly rising columns of air and so with that you must get rapidly sinking columns of air

I'm never going to live that down am I

That's exactly what I'll be doing come Tuesday

I've only really gotten to look at things over the past hour but I don't even know how you really portray a snowfall map right now I mean there are just so many uncertainties still and many of these uncertainties spew down to the mesoscale level in which good luck pinpointing now. Plus having the storm modeled as strong as it is and just how rapid the cyclogenesis happens is not really a good thing at all...we're going to see banded precip as opposed to a solid widespread precipitation shield.

Just trying to get caught up with models for this and not sure what has been discussed as far as CT is concerned but 18z bufkit soundings were not impressive at all across much of CT (although IJD looked solid) but SGZ didn't look all that appealing to me. Plus I think a large chunk of the state is going to be smoking subsidence.

Jesus...seeing when this was made and then realizing how long we've been at American Wx is insane...7 years now Can't believe how old I'm getting

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I wouldn't really be surprised to see some dry slotting in that area. The 700mb low has been taking shape and actually seems to be pushing a bit further north than east and might be closing off a little more west than it is now...can see dry air beginning to wrap in around it

how far east?

It's going to be impossible for models, especially the models with not as coarse of a resolution to accurately or consistently depict the exact SLP track or even placement. This is a very compact system with very deep pressure and so many tight pressure contours packed together. Seeing how the wobbles, whether they are slight ticks west or slight ticks east probably don't mean much at all. We're really just going to have to follow mesoanalysis and even the RAP might not 100% accurately depict exact placement. The point is, the slight variations we are seeing really don't mean much for many in this forum, but probably more for extreme western CT back towards NYC. However, the precipitation should is rather expansive and will continue to be expansive into the overnight hours. Don't forget, this system is still in the beginning stages of maturation and all the processes are coming together for further strengthening and expansion of the precip shield. frontogenesis at all levels indicate we will continue seeing numerous heavy bands develop, perhaps even convective bands, over the next several hours and even as far west as NYC, which we are currently seeing happen. One thing I am a little concerned with, however, is having too many heavier bands isn't always great thing b/c there will be subsidence zones and that is something the GFS sort of hints at becoming the case later on as seen by negative VV values...so this is something to certainly watch. While one area is getting pounded, another is getting shafted.

That's exactly why the GFS is too far east IMO (the current 0z run)...with what is bolded that all should allow for a further west track than what the GFS has now.