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weatherwiz

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  1. weatherwiz
  2. weatherwiz
    Think like May 16, 2003 or something around there
  3. weatherwiz
    Tornado watch seems playsible
  4. weatherwiz
    If we can get some 3km CAPE to match this sfc vort
  5. weatherwiz
    so January?
  6. weatherwiz
    Really liking the trends. the ALB sounding shows decent lapse rates and good shear. HRRR has been quite interesting and consistent too.
  7. weatherwiz
    I moved to a few minutes from BDL a few weeks back and I'm pissed I have to go to Danbury after work...although I guess Danbury may see some action...but timing does not look good for me to chase
  8. weatherwiz
    Quite the setup today (for September anyways). Pretty potent s/w trough moving through with sufficient wind shear and steep lapse rates. Question is with regards to instability, but appear there will be enough ingredients for some svr potential...including a tornado
  9. weatherwiz
    Been quite busy with the hurricane but today looks pretty solid if we generate enough instability. If any discrete cells fire a tornado is certainly possible.
  10. weatherwiz
    Looks like GFS is sustained TS winds at CHH for several hours moving into Saturday morning. Bufkit looked like maybe gusts 40-45 knots...think I would take the over on that verbatim
  11. weatherwiz
    NAM/GFS/euro look to get the Cape pretty good. Looks like euro has gusts 50-60+ knots
  12. weatherwiz
    TWC tweeted they are in contact with Josh!!! He is safe
  13. weatherwiz
    There was a post on twitter which showed the area of the school Josh was in...if that indeed is the area...idk. Very sick feeling in my stomach right now.
  14. weatherwiz
    I hope those warming cloud tops around the center of Dorian are indicating the eye is trying to re-organize. Looks like cloud tops are cooling too on the SE side of the eye and with bands wrapping around SW side.
  15. weatherwiz
    That is gut wrenching. How the heck do you survive that? ughhh
  16. weatherwiz
    Turtle's name is also spelled Eleanor
  17. weatherwiz
    That does look like a decent structure...hopefully there was not significant flooding there but from the few videos out there not sure how likely that is. Josh certainly knows what he’s doing though and I’m sure he had a backup to a backup to a backup al planned out and if he sensed danger he would quickly react
  18. weatherwiz
    It seems like most of that information is just rumors and speculation. I spent a good chunk of the night reading around and looking for info but there never seems to be a direct source the info is coming from.
  19. weatherwiz
    Ughh. I know in this past sometimes it’s been days since word but. I hope he’s alright :/
  20. weatherwiz
    Without shifting through the tropical thread any updated word on Josh?
  21. weatherwiz
    oh yeah...I think into SNE is unlikely...but re-strengthening over the Atlantic and making additional landfall across the mid-Atlantic coast somewhere is certainly possible.
  22. weatherwiz
    12z GFS bufkit for MCO is a disaster. Over 10'' of rain and winds gusting over 70 knots for quite a duration
  23. weatherwiz
    I don't think such a scenario is completely outlandish...as crazy as that looks...maybe not to that extent but look at the upper pattern...there are no real troughs or fronts which move through...there isn't anything to steer it. The upper flow aloft also looks to generate some weaknesses and it gets captured.
  24. weatherwiz
    Based on what just happened with Puerto Rico a turned certainly can't be ruled out. Looks like this idea is related to the forward speed of Dorian. the 12z guidance though has a pretty strong clustering with this though. Steering flow looks to bring it right into FL too...but any weaknesses within the upper pattern could certainly change things.
  25. weatherwiz
    I highly doubt the airport would be open Monday if current projections hold.
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