weatherwiz

wow...5 1'' hail reports today in ME...not bad!

Here we go!

That may not be there only funnel cloud report either!!!

Looks like Karen is defining an eye

Do you know how hard it is to get an observed Funnel cloud??? This calls for celebration

OHHHH!!! I've been waiting to catch one of these live!!! Funnel cloud report

100+ knot MLJ streak moving into theta-e air > 340K...that could be fun

I also see some severe potential here around October 3rd...spot on for the 40th anniversary of 10/3/79

They are going to get CRUSHED in MT...this could actually be a pretty long duration event too...though maybe separate systems but wow...

This made a ton of sense. I totally forgot that the CDC and CPC use slight variations in some of the methodologies. I have done some reading up on EOF's but I wish I was way better at math then I am (I still have zero clue how I made it through all the Calc) so I could completely understand even use them. I've always, always wanted to create bi-weekly values...I know at the end of the day the structure and placement of the anomalies are most critical, however, there is value I think in an indexed value. With this I think having a bi-weekly value can maybe provide some more light then an index averaged over a month. I think it will capture better those transitional periods and using the index as a number-visual you can go back and analyze those periods and perhaps be a boost in the research department. they do offer daily values and you would think just take the daily values and total up 14 days and divide by 14...but that won't work. I've taken monthly daily values, totaled up, and divided by the days in the month and the value does not equal the monthly reading. Anyways I'm not sure if EOF methodology would help in this department or if some sort of standardization needs to be done.

Can't totally rule that out...there are a few members which start making a hook left down the road.

Pretty interesting IR past few hours

You know what I'm curious about...if the loading pattern for the AO is defined by 1000mb SLP why are 500 height anomaly/height fields used to characterize the sign/strength of the AO? anyways...looking at the projected SLP anomalies/500mb height anomalies...I'm not entirely sure the structure of the +AO would just equate to big warmth up to our latitudes. I'm assuming this projected index is being driven by the anomalously low SLP anomalies around Greenland and extending into eastern Canada...southward displaced SLP anomalies try extending to our latitudes, but it is a big fight with the southern ridge. You also have a -PNA signal which is going to try and pump up the heights...it's almost like the AO signal is so strong/displaced that it actually prevents warmth from sustaining into October...somewhat of a similar fashion to where extremely -NAO's which are south displaced yields above-average heights poking into NNE

Outside of that stretch in late May I believe it's been another fairly quiet season overall...although not sure of the exact numbers. I've seen an awesome graphic floating around twitter at times which shows up-to-date confirmed tornado count for each state but I'm not sure where that graphic comes from.

There could be a pretty sizable severe event late weekend/beginning of next week across central US

I think things are on-track for today...perhaps a narrow corridor across south-central ME for a large hailer and/or damaging downburst.

Saturday certainly has potential for mid-to-upper 80's in the warmest locations. Lots of factors though to consider.

GFS bufkit looks pretty decent there...def quite close to blizzard conditions for a bit. Mountains are going to get smoked.

First tornado warning issued by the Phoenix office today in 5 years!!

Whoops...sorry. Thought it said 2M temps lol. I see what it is now. Anyways that still only reflects through October 3rd and changes happen after that

I would love to head out to AZ/NM for t’storms. From what I’ve seen in terms of pics/videos it’s a very underrated area to chase. Yeah the flip flops have been brutal...been quite difficult to really get a handle on things

WOAH!!!! Pretty sick supercell in AZ north of PHX

1) why are you using 2M temp anomalies to characterize ridging/trough? 2) You have to be careful when using just 2M temp anomalies...you get above-average temps at night with average daytime temps and the anomaly is going to be heavily skewed. 3) That is also through Oct 3 which doesn't reflect when the ridging begins to break down

the ridge looks to break down moving into October

IDK...I think October has a shot to come in below-average. There are some pretty strong signals for some pretty impressive ridging developing out west and the northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns seem to favor an opportunity for some big troughing in the east. I think October will be weird in that there will be some pretty hectic fluctuations where we get brief spurts of above-average...maybe even solidly above-average but the cold shots will be pretty impressive.