weatherwiz

That early week wave could have a huge say in things. The airmass for much of next week is quite warm..perhaps if that early week wave comes weaker/flatter that will mute the air mass a bit...but it just seems like it might be another system with crappy airmass and then after the storm (end of week) we get the cold

Good luck man! Keep your head up

Ahhh yes that’s it!!! I want to go through there

do you know the name of this town in RI that is supposedly Haunted? It’s like just over the CT/RI border I think along route 6

Probably haunted (that's the closest emoji I could find to a ghost)

ehhh there might be a strip of higher totals than that. I've follow Eric Webb closely on Twitter b/c his long-range/ENSO information is top notch (love his Ensemble ONI Index he createD) and he is pretty aggressive for tomorrow. Think he has 5-9''

Was just talking about that at work with someone...they don't budget for it...and for precisely the same reasons you said. That is an interesting point though about cars packing down the snow...one thing that happens is they get pretty damn cold behind the system for Thursday night and not getting a while heck of a lot above freezing Friday (but the sun is on the stronger side). Icing could be a huge issue come Friday morning

I always wonder...what's the line between where these places and handle snow and where all hell breaks lose over a 1/2''. I know Atlanta falls into the later category so are they like that line or is it a bit north of them?

12z Euro looking more impressive too down there for tomorrow. Slowly catching up

I'm pretty shocked the NWS hasn't issued any advisories or watches down that way. I don't know what local outlets are saying, but I think here are going to be plenty of people who are like WTF. A scenario like the NAM would be a utter disaster down there.

yeah they had few stretches where it was pretty active but it's been brutally quiet out there. Last year I think some places had like 400-500'' in February alone

We think it's brutal here for snow...take a look at this...THAT IS UGLY. 111'' thus far...I think last year they had that on like a 3 day span in February

I've realized I haven't had a dream about severe wx in a while...typically means that we will actually get more snow. Usually by now I'm having crazy dreams about severe wx where I'm seeing tornadoes and I'm trying to take video or pictures but I'm "unable to" and then I wake up

Don't even need the bikini when it's that warm

I hope March is active. When it's active it's fun and time goes by fast...let March be active and fun b/c once March ends...boom we're only one month away from severe wx season...nuts. Let's get 20-30'' in March and then flip to 70's and 80's come April.

Can I come?

How's Ekster doing these days?

That signal has been incredibly consistent since last Friday.

It's not necessarily just ignoring it...it's just trying to dive deeper into it and exploring and seeking answers into "why the change is happening" instead of just assuming so b/c it's being reflected on the charts (this also answers to Tip about what I mean by too easy). Looking at the charts...while a drop is obviously the trend...there is significant uncertainty regarding this towards the end of the month. For the past month, each drop in the AO has become less impressive than the previous drop...now I'm not using that as my case to claim that continues...what I'm suggesting from that is it's in part due to just how strong and how coupled the PV's are now...analyzing how H5 evolves on the GFS/euro/ensembles you can clearly see why the drop is being modeled...but what I'm also getting at is those changes which lead to weakening of the AO would start to be shown in about 3-4 days...so if that configuration isn't evolving as so by that time...can we really expect a major drop in the AO? One other major wild card is what's occurring in the GoA right now with that significant storm...following forecasts in the anchorage area the forecasts have been extremely uncertain and low confidence. Seems like the system is much stronger than sort of though. This may influence the shape of the height fields up that way over the next few days which would have some say in what happens after that.

I don't think it really holds to be that strong...but I think it stays on the stronger side. whether that's +1 (sure much different than now...but that's still strong) or +3 I couldn't say. Even in this regime though we've had cold shots and I would expect us to see some more...but will they be long-lived? Probably not...that will just make it all the more difficult to get something to work out in our favor. I'm thinking after the cold blast towards months end (should it verify) we flip towards warm and stay there until mid-May when backdoors decide to haunt us

A) oh come on...that's too easy but my point to that is when we see these changes modeled in the medium-to-long range...shouldn't signals which are leading to those changes be witnessed with initialization of models say at D4 or 5 (or some day). B ) makes sense C) This is all extremely informative information! But given the historic nature of the AO would the 45/60 day pattern be applicable here?

I'm not saying it stays 3-5SD but I think it stays strong enough to where it continues to influence and dominate the pattern. I completely agree the tropospheric PV can certainly change and isn't totally tied into the SPV but aren't the two strongly coupled currently? Something would have to disrupt that, no? I would think we want to start seeing the TPV and SPV decouple What I see happening is (which is yielding the TPV to weaken) is ridging develops just northeast of AK and this extends into the Arctic domain which would result in the weakening of the AO...but this is something we've seen modeled quite a bit over the past few weeks and that scenario just doesn't seem to materialize. One of the bigger changes looks to be more with AK and extending ridging more into AK...that could be a huge driver.

Again...everyone is completely relying on a model output saying it's going to drop to +1 but there is hardcore evidence or indications that actually happens?

what would be the catalyst behind the change? This is something which I was trying to get at with my evening rants last night. I don't think it's in the best interest to assume a pattern change is going to occur (and in this cases big changes to the AO) just b/c "it is modeled". How many times have we seen models indicate a pattern change beyond a certain time frame only for it to continue being delayed...and delayed? For it to have merit there has to be a catalyst. So in this situation, if we're looking at a big pattern change to occur in say 7-10 days or 10-14 days...I would think whatever the catalyst is to drive that changes should be sen in real-time within the next 3-4 days. What is going to allow a relaxation of the AO? I was reading some stuff last night and apparently the AO is forecast to remain completely in tact and very strong moving into March. Unless there is something to disrupt those historic westerlies I can't see this AO just going poof.

?? on wavelengths or the AO/March based on forecasts...not so sure that happens given the state of things and if so it's brief