weatherwiz

Major props goes out to the NWS (well anyone who forecasts) forecasters out west (like CO, WY, MT, ID) when it comes to forecasting snow totals...like HTF do they do it? Especially with regards to the sharp elevation changes and just knowing terrain and its influences. It can't be easy to derive a map like this. It would be awesome to learn how to forecast snowfall across these places.

I miss the mountains of VT A friend of mine and his family have this cabin right outside of Westminster West...I didn't get to go this summer but the view from his cabin is breathtaking.

Might have to spark up a low CAPE/high shear svr thread at some point this weekend for next week!!!

Well you're in VT... Again it's all relative to where people live. For so many years the whole back-and-forth argument between folks that live farther south and folks that live further north with regards to "torch" and "warmth" is just ridiculous...and in fact the word "torch" is stupid to begin with. Anyways...let's take a look at Saturday and forgetting where people live and taking into account what climo is... 1) Climo... Your climo is right around 60 or 30...looks like highs will be pretty close to 70...maybe even lower 70's (relative to climo that's pretty dang warm). BDL is right around 70 (just shy perhaps) and temps down this way will be well into the 80's...relative to climo that is pretty dang warm. 2) 850 temperature anomalies look to be greater than +5 SD above the average...that is pretty remarkable. So based on this...it doesn't matter where you live in New England...knowing that we're going to see some decent sun and mixing ahead of this...relative to everyone's climo it's going to be warm.

There have been some signals for some TC development in the Gulf within the next 10-14 days.

I had a dream the other night we had a severe wx event...I don't remember all the details but I think I was in Danbury and there were tornado warnings and even a tornado right outside. But I couldn't get to it b/c I couldn't get my shoes tied

75-90 sounds perfect to me. Actually 75 is a little on the cool side. Make it 80 and I'm happy

ohhh!!! Thanks...didn't even really pay attention for our area today. I have nothing going on after work so maybe chasing!!!!!!

sweet thanks.

How did you find the specific year? Also looks like the record in October happened pretty late in the month...20C to be exact on the 23rd

I'm thinking 86-88 at BDL Saturday. Though it seems like there is an inversion just below 5,000' which prevents deeper mixing. If that feature is overdone or can be overcome then BDL will hit 90.

Saturday has tornado potential across parts of NY/PA if llvl winds back enough

ORH is absolutely hitting 80 on Saturday...only need to mix to around 4300' or so. Good SW flow and mixing ahead of the front and doesn't look like clouds will be an issue. Next week ahead of that front could be quite warm to even hot (for the time of year).

Only like mid 50's here...but certainly enough to have the heat on...well moreso the defroster b/c the windows are all condensated up in the morning.

warm? It's pretty chilly. Hate this time of year. Heat on in the car during the morning and then A/C during the day. Have had to use heat several times the last few weeks.

Might actually even be like $12 - $14 per pack. My aunt quit in the early 90's I think she said. they were only a few dollars per pack...she said when she would be out at the bar sometimes she would go through 3 in a night. But I think it's disgusting how the government is able to get away with just increasing and implementing these taxes...I guess maybe b/c the industry is too powerful to be shut down(?) and so it's a method installed in hopes people will quit b/c they can't afford it or whatever...idk but to just make money off of people's addictions.

Hoping the timing will give us a severe threat!!!

It's crazy the amount of people who use vaps now...I'd have to say like 90%+ of the people I hang out with from school all have a juul or whatever other products exists. I totally get the movement to ban them...but at the end people are going to do what they want and as long as these products are in existence people are going to have access to them. What is really disgusting is how the government handles cigarettes...they are making an absolute killing on cigarette taxes. The argument of raising cigarette taxes to get people to quit is total nonsense...they understand how addictive nicotine is and it's disgusting how they just make money of this sickness. Several years back my mom (who smokes) was talking to store clerk about cigarettes and they were like if it wasn't for the taxes a pack of cigarettes in CT would be like $3 or something...they're like $10 - $12 I think?

I just realized occluded fronts are purple b/c red and blue make purple!

There were 8 reports yesterday...including half-dollar size!!!

This is insane. I wonder if some parts of NNE end as some flakes or mix with grauple with this FROPA

Anyways should be fun at GTF Saturday morning with blizzard conditions. Just imagine a bit farther west and even higher up!!

If things align properly Tuesday could be an active severe day from OH into WV, PA, MD, and maybe into NJ.