weatherwiz

Bow echo?

We’re closing in in the window where things should begin the process of taking off and evolving. Let’s see

Not for much longer

Be interesting to see if any additional convection develops over the next few hours. I wish it was closer to land and an actual radar site

Lightning beginning to pick up off the SC coast.

they're garbage...completely pathetic.

The cold front seems to be moving east a bit more quickly than models show. It's not significantly quicker, but that could have major implications on how/where things evolve. Anyways, it does look like there is a meso-low popping off the NC coast.

The RPM really nails the Cape with winds. Looks like sustained like 30-40 knots when the worst moves through.

The 12z HRRR does hint at the all so slight possibility for a brief tornado on the CAPE tonight.

Coastal ME gets completely hammered. Has like 70 knots gusts pound into the coast.

I'm dying right now At first I was confused by this but then I read my OP

I know Tip explained some thoughts on this...I think he was more curious/impressed with the potential than I was. If it happens I think it would be extreme southeastern areas. The 12z HRRR is rolling in now and I've been kinda watching sfc theta-e advection and the higher values look to scrape the Cape so I think that's what you want to watch for. Obviously, if there is any convection potential increases significantly for 60-70 mph gusts.

What might be really cool is it could go from raining buckets to absolutely nothing within minutes...looks like a crazy shark cutoff between precip and dry slot. WV is going to be fun to watch as this evolves.

sfc obs seem to indicate this may be

This is right around the time when the GFS has the most intense precip/wind moving through the Cape along with core of LLJ FWIW, also has the sfc at 975mb lol...so you only have to ascend 400-500' to tap into the base of the LLJ lol

I continue to agree with this. That has been my thinking as well. The potential is certainly there for some pretty impressive wind gusts tonight, however, I don't think it will be very widespread and we're really relaying on exceptionally difficult-to-pin-down details (mesolows, gravity waves, etc.) to generate wind gusts of those magnitudes. You're last paragraph explains it very well too...with how it's deepening and where the deepening is occurring it's just not good for region wide winds on the front side...moreso the backside.

I think BDL sees under 30 mph Wednesday night, however, I think BDL could see 35-45 mph gusts Thursday on the backside.

idk...I think Weatherbell is better really and has more data.

Next few to several hours will be quite telling as we watch off the coast of VA/NC. Anyways for being so close this is extremely impressive. I think I saw a max of like 195 -ubs^-1 lmao

We're on the same page in terms of what you meant regarding the type of convection. I agree there is some instability off the deck, but IMO it's just too weak to really generate a higher probability for thunder. I think that instability is just enough to really enhance rainfall rates locally. I know we have the super strong support from the trough and s/w energy, but I'm not sure if that alone is enough to generate much in the way of thunder potential. However, I think there is thunder potential across RI/SE MA...with instability being enhanced by steepening lapse rates and northeast racing dry slot. This is where you also get richer llvl theta-e advection

I am not overly impressed with thunder chances with this one...although an opportunity may exist across SE MA where it looks like there will be a spike in theta-e. Even with the dynamics/forcing present, it doesn't appear elevated instability is really enough to spark thunder chances...might have just enough to yield some convective elements which would help with some localized bursts of stronger gusts but I would like it more if we could poke a couple hundred J of elevated CAPE

Let's see what happens overnight/first thing in the AM. Supposedly some convection from the SE will be breaking off and coming up the coast and then boom.

The 12z euro also looks like its slightly stronger with wind gusts across the Cape and Islands lol

What I was doing was trying to follow the main pieces of vort energy along with SLP maps. From doing this that's how I derived what I mentioned above. You do have that main primary low over NYS which then seems to weaken ("transfer energy" to the coast)...which may be a product of occlusion. Speaking of transferring of energy to the coast I forgot what class it was but we discussed this briefly one day and the professor showed us some paper or something...anyways basically discussed how the concept of energy transfer (from low to the next across the east coast) is not actually correct. But if you sort of track that sfc low (which I highlighted as frontal wave or whatever) it seems to develop (defining this when a closed contour appears) right along the cold front. Obviously this is nothing new with fronts and I'm sure this gets enhanced by the anomalous upper-trough, but I think the entire system gets injected with steroids with what it does with this s/w energy that rides up the coast...seems like that stuff goes crazy when it interacts with the negative tilt and the jet streak rounds the base of the trough. This is too complex lol