weatherwiz

I'm a bit surprised at the late timing shown by the 3km NAM. Doesn't push anything through here until around 4z or so

Yeah I found it intriguing the past few days how the models increased instability towards the evening...something you don't usually see happen around here and especially this time of year. Initially I was thinking maybe a plume of steep lapse rates was moving in but yeah...that's a pretty decent plume of theta-e air which moves in later on.

Is the NAM Nest not working?

There is a reason we do May 1st as the countdown until severe weather season and that's b/c the season begins in May and looks like we're right on time this year as we are looking at the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms both tomorrow and Friday and the potential exists for some of the thunderstorms to become strong to severe. While the main cold front is still well west tomorrow, several pieces of shortwave energy will be moving through the fast westerly flow aloft during the afternoon tomorrow and a pre-frontal trough may be set up just to our west but the main driver for forcing tomorrow will be pieces of energy moving through the flow aloft. With temperatures well into the 80's to near 90 away from the coast and dewpoints climbing into the mid-60's combined with fairly steep mid-level lapse rates will yield the development of moderate instability tomorrow afternoon. While winds in the lowest couple km aren't particularly strong there is plenty of speed shear tomorrow afternoon with a LLJ exceeding 30-35 knots and MLJ exceeding 50 knots. As the impulses move overhead we'll likely see showers and thunderstorms develop, however, there is some uncertainty as to the aerial coverage of the storms. Given moderate instability and strong shear the potential will exist for thunderstorms to become strong to severe and pose a threat for strong to damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Higher LCL's, modest low-level directional shear, and weak flow in the lowest few km should preclude any tornado potential. Friday can be discussed after

can'tr rule out thunder either. soundings are pretty impressive with some weak instability

true

that may have been the same exact winter I am thinking of. Actually i think you're right

Question...this isn't storm related but I can't remember this for the life of me. I remember several...several winters back...this may even go back to Eastern US Wx days but there was one winter where there was alot of talk about confluence to the north...I think that was the term...but if I am thinking of this correctly having confluence just to our north is NOT good for us...it keeps storm track suppressed to our south?

The NAM was SPOT on...SPOT on with the scenario of two bands...one around central CT then another E CT/RI border.

There are like 5000 different places now to get models I can't remember them all

I'll be seeing a 40 alright. I can promise you that. The pivot/stall aspect is going to be really crucial...even back here across CT. I think there is a possibility this could happen across central or eastern CT and if that happens there are going to be some surprised people come tomorrow. Anyways yeah SE MA is going to get nailed. I could see some 24-30'' totals

Analyzing mesoanalysis and several tools on there I would have to think the models which have shown/come more west will end up being correct in that regard.

Look at that fronto already!

Jesus

great what's next? Pete Rose gets his ban lifted from baseball

Made a map to up my totals for CT but I was just looking at the NAM bufkit for BDL and see only 10 units of omega within the SGZ...is that actually enough to warrant moderate to heavy snow? Maybe I underestimated that thinking it's not much when it really is...?

This is sick!!! new addition

The NAM has some insane LLJ...especially at 925mb. An extensive jet streak of >80 knots with > 90 knots at 925. Stronger than the GFS...I wonder if this is a big reason for such high QPF amounts...especially back into a good chunk of CT. What meteorological reasons sort of determine how far from the center frontogenesis banding occurs? Even looking at H7 low track...w/o looking at fronto I would guess it is east of what NAM shows.

ahhh thanks!!! I've been reading this wrong the entire time...I would always match the yellow/purple lines with the height levels on the right hand side. So for the purple line when it says 0, 5, and 10 and 15 and 20 for yellow that's the temperatures (obviously negative though)

IJD certainly looks real solid. I think my concern with this back across CT is just how to forecast this b/c this is really all about the banding here and there is going to be some crazy gradients. Determining where the band sets up, how narrow/wide the band is, and how it propagates determines what we see. I think outside of the band there will be issues with good snow rates/snow growth.

woah...is that a free or pay site? this is cool (no pun intended)

hmmm...I took screen shots of what I was looking at. Maybe I misinterpret the SGZ on bufkit (I still don't know if I fully understand the purple and yellow contours...even though people have told me...I just forget...need to write it down). But what I interpreted was how the SGZ seemed to decrease (slope down to the left) that this meant the SGZ was lowering below the desired height (12K-18K). -15C intersects which is great and plenty of RH within the zone...what I meant by dry was just the look on the skew-t's...though GFS seemed fully saturated.

This whole setup...well not necessairly the setup but looking over the data there is much much that stands out at being rather odd. Obviously, the NAM frontogenesis maps suggest we see some heavy/intense banding across a good portion of CT...but you look at NAM bufkit soundings across CT and outside of IJD these profiles don't seem very impressive too me. Omega within the SGZ at BDL and WTBY are crap...and the SGZ really just flops as we near noon. OTOH, GFS bufkit at IJD screams major subsidence across eastern CT and llvl subsidence further west with not much going on in the SGZ. This will disappoint many in CT (outside of who gets under the band). Not to mention I still think this whole system away from the storm's center is nothing but banded precip