weatherwiz

Why is it these setups always, always, always get hyped up? Is it because snow maps go crazy or models blow up QPF? 99.99999% of the time the cold air always lags behind the cold front in this part of the country. Obviously across northern New England things can be a little different but we see time after time...models "go crazy" within this time range and once we get inside 36-42 hours...boom it goes to shit then we have to hear all the crying about how models were wrong. If these events panned out...even half the time, every one of us would probably average another 30'' of snow per year.

Perfectly on track.

While there is the Boston get-together, it's difficult for those who live a distance away from the Boston area to make it...especially during the week. It seems like it's been a quite a while since we had a big turnout get-together and with no conference in several years many of us haven't seen one another in quite some time. In the past, Funky Murphy's in Worcester has been a great central location for many. Funky Murphy's is also large enough to accommodate a large group and we've even had our own like "private room"in the back before. It also had a decent night crawl. Saturday's seem like the most logical day b/c many probably don't work and probably don't have to work the next day. Obviously that day is also used by many for family things but if we can get a date well in advance people can mark their calendar. I am thinking this can be something we do in late spring/early summer. Just late enough to where the weather may just begin to turn nicer and just early enough to where it may avoid vacation scheduling. As far as "what time" I don't think we really need to plan on that...the earliest arrivals probably be in the 2-3 time frame or whatever. What I would like to do is have this poll run for a few weeks and analyze the results of what month seems to be most popular. Once we get a good feeling on that then start pushing out a date in that month.

Worcester would be great...especially a weekend day. That would certainly probably get the biggest gathering. Outside of the local Boston folks weekday just isn't going to work for anyone. I'm just going to start a thread for it.

This is an absolutely gold mine.

I'll have to check his site out! If you could do so that would be incredible! Perhaps you could do something similar to what is done at 33andRain.com. Since I'm really trying to get back into long-range forecasting and understanding all the various teleconnections, forcings, etc I've discovered that site and they have an incredible database going. Perhaps you can just organize everything in a thread and it can be pinned somewhere and it's just links. (didn't they have something similar going on in the NYC forum a while back?...maybe they still do. Haven't ventured there in a while). I try to save bookmarks and links but I do it extremely poorly and when I want to find something I can't lol

I have to thank Steve for posting that link to the Ensemble Situational Awareness table a few weeks back...never came across it but it's phenomenal. Steve always has awesome links. Anyways, PWATS are going to be quite high ahead of that cold front next week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a flood threat develop...especially with the snow pack.

An amplifying trough across the west over the region results in a building ridge downstream across the east coast. The result will be two days of above-average temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Of bigger interest is a pretty significant longwave trough moving through the northern Plains towards the Northeast Monday into Wednesday. Anomalously strong llvl flow through the troposphere will yield an unseasonably strong northward flux of moisture characterized by dewpoints climbing into the 40's and 50's. As the longwave trough approaches so will a cold front. Ahead of the cold front will be numerous areas of widespread showers and heavier downpours. Very strong dynamics look to be present with forecast models indicating an impressive 80-100+ MLJ streak developing around the base of the trough moving through the warm sector. While lapse rates won't be impressive (both mlvl and llvl) a moist llvl airmass should result in weak instability. The potential exists for a low-topped line of convection to develop ahead of the front which should move through a good part of the region. There may be two areas where some isolated damaging (convective) winds may occur; PA into NY/western New England Monday and then across eastern southern New England Tuesday. Mesoscale aspects are going to play some big influences at times; especially regarding where some of the heaviest rain occurs. Flooding doesn't appear to be a major threat, however, some local focal points of flooding may transpire. This will be another drawn out event...characterized by periods where the weather is quite unsettled and other periods where it is quiet.

I wonder if there is some sort of database out there which records/measures the accuracy of MOS at each forecast location. I'd be curious to see where MOS does overly well and where it sucks. I have a feeling it's probably trash at Sioux Falls, SD.

Came home to this yesterday.

farther north I think...like central/northern VT. Not completely confident on it but I think there are some signals.

Could see several-inches of upslope snow tomorrow night in VT.

No I was referring to the airport. Thanks!

Any ideas for updated numbers at Logan? Last PNS report was after midnight

They actually have it in their PDF thing!

Thanks...guess only BOX does it around here. Was hoping Albany did one of these too

Does anyone know where the NWS posts storm totals on a map. There is the map which shows LSR reports but I know I've seen a map posted which sort of shows totals...in a similar format they use when issuing snow maps

Woah...this legit happened in the past like 15 min in Branford...it was snowing lightly earlier but now it’s all coated

850 fronto 700 fronto can see where heavy snow will setup and pivot over. Looks like several inches for a good part of CT coming up

There are 135 more 12z runs of the GFS to go before the GFS gets into the range of May 1st

Going to stay in Branford again tonight. Don't feel like dealing with any ice/snow in the AM. Plus...my ice scraper thing is completely buried in my trunk. Besides...I kinda love the 2-minute commute to work as opposed to an hour

That's exactly what I'm thinking. Perhaps a second little max in NE CT

Dead

Looks like we could see some snow squalls Wednesday.

That is huge and the biggest question. Seems like this may happen in just enough time to produce the good in E MA up through coastal ME