weatherwiz

ughhh heart-breaking to see that.

I didn't really pay close attention either outside of just a general forecast. I know the SPC was considering an upgrade to enhanced with the 20z outlook. the environment was characterized by very steep lapse rates and strong shear so there was definitely some support with some of the ingredients. IIRC one of the greatest concerns was whether convection would become sfc based.

At first i was thinking strong EF2/weak EF3 but the latest stuff I saw has me thinking high end Ef3...at least. Terrible situation

Yikes...maybe a high end EF3...at least based on some of the latest photos

Showing something for 2 days prior is different than doing something 6-7+ days out

I would think it would actually yield the opposite...a slower flow. Just basing that on the idea that the Arctic region seems to be warming fastest so that would result in a reduced temperature gradient between the Pole and Arctic. But this could be totally wrong...especially given we have seen some crazy fast ULJ recently. While temperature gradient is a driver in the jet there are other factors too and perhaps they hold as much weight as temperature gradient alone.

Death toll at 19...Jesus

The connections to blocking (or a lack of) have been interesting. I've read a little bit about this and the arguments I think from both sides make some interesting points. From what I gather it seems like blocking may become less frequent, however, when we do see blocking it could be pretty impressive. The deviations to the PJ I think are most interesting and it really makes a great deal of sense how it would retreat farther north more towards the EPO region. The connection with the Hadley Cell/Walker cell is another very interesting tidbit...not sure how extensive the research is into this but it's something I certainly want to explore more b/c this could have significant implications on the transition seasons.

I don't think you can ever truly connect climate change to a single weather event, however, what you can do is make connections of climate change to the atmospheric pattern configuration...or something along those lines. For example, if the PJ averaged more north this winter and that has been a theme more often than that over the past several years compared to the longer-term mean you can make an argument (based on ideas of how a warmer climate would argue for this) that is a relation to climate change along with other factors which may have helped (ENSO, QBO, etc).

I agree with this. In fact, this can be said about many potential weather events. I've been doing alot of thinking about this lately...and this stems from discussions had in class, listening to what people have to say about weather forecasts/information, and just surfing through social media. We see alot of talk (here included) where the models are always to blame...despite what statistics indicate. But is the problem within the models or how information regarding weather is being presented? I think it's the latter and I think it's actually a huge problem and it's leading to people just losing faith/confidence in weather forecasting. It's one thing to have discussions "internally" but there is just so much information thrown around on social media that the general public just doesn't need to know or see...and it's b/c they just don't know how to interpret it (which is not their fault). There is so much information posted which is geared towards the "only if" "or what if" category and this provides absolutely zero value to the public and creates more harm than good. The general public doesn't care that 8 out of 51 EPS members show a massive storm 7-days out. What's even the point is posting this information (for the public to see)? I understand there is the idea of providing lead time and there is that whole idea of "I want to be the first one to mention it" but it's not done correctly IMO and that is evident by the public's reaction to this material.

Should actually see a decent little line move through later this evening. Don't think we'll see severe gusts but perhaps 30-40 mph. If enough elevated instability can develop maybe some small hail or grauple mixed in.

This is something to really watch. Could catch people off guard but this is a pretty decent signal showing up. Could really be enhanced should any narrow zone of fronto either develop over eastern sections or traverse over eastern sections.

High EF-2/low EF-3

Enjoy your gusty line segment tonight. Maybe if you're lucky you can get some small hail to bounce off the noggin or the grand prize of them all...a brief quick TOR

Funny...winter storm threat this weekend lessens and severe wx potential looming this evening...perhaps into SW CT

Now that is a TDS...holy yikes

Sad news out of Nashville

Let's enjoy the marginal risk to our southwest...almost kissing metfan in the pooper

Down to 59 days!

ahhh that's what you mean by ride rollover...pretty clear now to see that with this explanation.

it actually looks pretty similar to the GFS regarding the southern stream at 84-hr anyways (which is good) but yeah it isn't digging as much with that north stream. I was actually wondering if the euro was faster with the southern stream based on how SLP unfolded but speed doesn't look all that different. What's funny though is I thought the Euro was a tad higher with some of the heights out west (looked like it was a bit farther north with the 552 contour but with closer inspecting there are differences in the ridge between the two.

ahhh they're on WeatherBell. That's why I couldn't find them on Ryan Maue's site Unless I just can't find them.

I'm actually not sure where to get the plot which shows the individual low tracks but from judgement of eye (which is never a good way to go) 12z does look solidly west. but I always get a little weary of focusing too much on individual runs (and EPS for that matter) and how far west/east storm track is when phasing is involved b/c there are so many moving factors involved with phasing that agreement (or disagreement) 2...3...4 days out means little. At the end of the day a 6-hour difference in the timing of any of the important features will dictate whether phasing happens or not. We could go into 12z Thursday and still be 12-hours off within timing and all of a sudden 0z runs come out and bam...there's a phase and we get nailed.

Not very far off from something pretty big

I wouldn't be surprised to continue seeing the southern vort trend slower. A lot of these southern stream systems this winter have typically ended up becoming slower in nature as opposed to more progressive. Noticed that alot with many of these rain/convective events in the south this winter. Hopefully though we'll get a better handle on the western ridge over the next 24-hours. Not sure though if it should be a bit concerning to see 12z begin to go towards a flatter ridge but tough to say.