weatherwiz

Yeah I didn't mention Monday but Monday looks real interesting as well. Models do show some s/w energy moving through as the ulvl ridge breaks down. This also allows for some strengthening westerlies to move overhead. As far as the capping is concerned the lid strength index values were right around -5 or so which would indicate that capping wouldn't be a concern...I guess that could make sense with height falls aloft?...usually with capping issues we see heights rising. I wouldn't rule out MCS regeneration across our region either with perhaps some activity developing along the OFB as it propagates into western sections.

Not sure about here but Tuesday could be quite interesting just off to our southwest. Obviously lapse rates are meh but could be some enhanced low-level shear to work with

ahh that is another possibility as well. We discussed this a few times in one of my classes but never really came up with an answer...or searched around. but I don't recall ever seeing anything mentioned about it in any of the readings I've done about interpreting MOS. I guess at the end of the day it's not totally significant.

Question about the extended GFS MOS data...when it gives the climo for high/low is that the climo averaged for the entire period or is it the climo for the beginning or the end of the period?

Actually a shame that 1) We probably have showers moving through during the day and 2) That s/w isn't timed quicker...not a terrible looking environment across western sections. Actually some nice looking hodos on some of the soundings.

Debating on maybe going to NY Wednesday

Starting to wonder if the configuration will ever break down I have not really looked at long-range in quite sometime (as in influences of the global pattern and such) but this seems rather odd to me to see such an extensive feature become established at the high liatitudes this time of year.

I can see that happening. Could even see a bit of an instability spike around 0z across far western areas too with some decent theta-e advection modeled. Looking ahead though what a horrific pattern. Although, I guess there is some hope for maybe some cold pool aloft setups but just yuck.

yeah the timing certainly has not trended in our favor.

Boundary layer and low-level winds could be an issue on Wednesday but Wednesday has been a bit intriguing for a few days now.

yeah that thing looks like it would be a heck of alot stronger than an EF1 or EF2

Absolutely! Quite the show in Newtown overnight

Time to ride the MCS train if the GFS is right?

Certainly true...also, if someone wasn't directly affected by any of the storms last week there is a pretty damn good chance they knew someone who was.

I think if we had lower LCL’s on Tuesday we would have saw a strong tornado (maybe two)

Yeah dews were much higher and I think LCL’s were much lower. I actually didn’t even see what LCL’s ended up being around here on Tuesday. Do you know what they were? I know they were modeled to be a bit higher than what you would like to see but local dew pooling/theta e advection I’m sure lead to some lower LCL’s.

Gotta watch Monday/Tuesday timeframe too. Potential may be just west of here but something to watch

I wish I stayed at a friends house who is in my fraternity.

Stayed in Newtown last night and when leaving this morning it took me 30 minutes to get to the highway. All roads I tried were closed

i know. I’ve read all his stuff. There were just some things I was trying to explore that went behind the paper. I already have them Credited in my presentation

This is so helpful! I've tried to search a bit more on EML's since I never truly understood how to explain the origin of them. I'm also going to do a presentation on this event at our Tristate weather conference in the fall and wanted to briefly explain EML origin and this totally helps.

It's funny you mention this because I've been thinking about this and I wonder if my thinking was incorrect. I thought that EML's did originate aloft like at the 10,000' to 18,000' level (but then again isn't that like the surface for the source regions of EML's?) Anyways...so we could see an EML plume that's like from 700-600mb but the 700-500mb lapse rate alone may not properly portray that?

Friends house in Newtown

yeah the extensive coverage of the EML plume was quite impressive and I think definitely underrated...not in terms of how the event produced but just b/c of the historical significance. Those observed lapse rates too on the 18z sounding are striking. That's pretty extreme stuff. Even 6/1/11 I think only had lapse rates around 7.5...don't think they were above that. I think the only time (could be wrong) that 700-500 lapse rates approached 8 C/KM during a convective event was 7/15/95 when I remember reading they were like 8-8.5.

yeah that whole area is a disaster. West Hartford is typically 50 minutes from Danbury for me and my friend lives like 15-20 minutes north of Danbury. We both made it home at the same time