weatherwiz

Well...could be pretty active southwest of here later on

Already a TOR out...TN/VA border

GFS steepens the 950-900 lapse rate to over 7 C/KM just ahead of that line. Very small layer sure, but winds in that layer are very strong and just above. Very good bet we mix at least 50-55 mph gusts to the sfc ahead of that line

That line is going to mean some business I think. Even if radar isn't impressive...just ahead of that line will be a brief burst of some pretty strong winds.

When you think of the meteorology behind this...this is extremely beautiful. That's likely a big wind producer (with the winds on the leading edge)

NAM NEST anyways is quite aggressive with a very potent fine line of convection with widespread 50-60 knot gusts ahead of it.

In the middle of the woods...not running around my bedroom floor or on hot tubs

Things be changing. I've even noticed the spiders in CT are getting bigger and faster. When I'm working at my friend's dads (his yard is surrounded by some trees in the back and side) there are spiders everywhere and THEY'RE HUGE. Wolf spiders, funnel weavers, some really small brown ones which look like brown recluses. I saw a GIANT one crawling on the hot tub the other day and there was this wolf spider in the shed. they're everywhere. Like a month ago I had one on my shoulder...didn't even look to see what kind...it was huge. I threw my shirt off and ran around screaming. I recently moved to Windsor Locks and I was in my room last week and there was a HUGE black spider on my bedroom floor...quickly jumped on it...didn't even take the time to take a pic and verify the type. CT shouldn't be having these spiders.

I totally understand and agree with all points here. I guess my question is whether these extremes are becoming more frequent. If it's not record warmth it's record cold. For example this cold shot, there doesn't seem to be a whole heck of a lot of attention to it...meanwhile if this was record warmth news anchors would be naked. I think Steve made this point in the spring. I know it's not historic by any means...but that shouldn't discredit the significance. But even this past month we have seen some historic events occur...the early season snows in MT...biggest early season stuff since the 1930's...then northern Plains got nailed. I know Vegas has had 30's in October before (looks like record cold in the 1970's) but the frequency of these type of events is increasing...that's what my main point is. Like look at anomalies for tomorrow and Thursday...this is a large chunk of the country.

idk... I think a strong argument can be made for that. Crazy anomalous events are becoming more frequent...at least the patterns which yield those potential outcomes are.

These anomalous events are happening so much more frequently that eventually they won't be so anomalous. nahhh...I doubt this pattern remains through the winter. Using a combination of the little I know about long-range and form what I read from the experts on twitter it seems like this is strongly correlated to some crazy +MT and -AAM (maybe its -MT)...eventually though I guess for momentum to be restored or for equilibrium something has to give and things will relax...or even reverse. Part of me wonders if it has to do with the seasonal transition as well and due to factors like MT, AAM, etc the transition period is leading to some anomalous times but as that transition becomes more "seasonal" it will relax

Even wind chill watches/warnings in MT, WY, and CO...this is freaking nuts. Wind chills as low as -30. WTF is going on

Yeah...I don't necessarily think the winds happen within the line or heavier pockets of rain themselves...but moreso just out ahead of them (guess that could be more synoptic related than convective?) I agree...50-60 max sounds quite reasonable. Too bad we are just off the Lakes. Kevin would be going wild.

I agree...this isn't really a big wind event for the Cape. Unlike the last system which saw pressure gradient enhancement followed by CAA these winds will have to be more convectively-driven...so unless we see a pretty impressive squall line bigger winds will be more isolated in nature. Even though there might be a weakened inversion in this situation, extremely poor moist-adiabatic lapse rates are going to hinder momentum transport.

I disagree. The best winds in this case will have to be driven from convective processes...so any more significant or impressive gusts are going to be on the more isolated side...unless of course we deal with a pretty decent low topped line blow through. We won't see much pressure-gradient winds (well anything impressive anyways) this go-around. I would like to see steeper llvl lapse rates get involved to help with momentum transfer which would then result in bigger wind potential.

Yeah this could be pretty significant right off the lakes. I was shocked to see soundings so impressive right now. Could see tropical storm force sustained and hurricane force gusts. good point about the lake flooding potential

I don’t

Damage for all

A vigorous trough is set to dig into the country's mid-section midweek, eject into the Ohio Valley and begin lifting as it approaches New England. Out ahead of it, an anomalously strong southerly flow will transport anomalous PWAT values into the region, along with llvl moisture and warmth. These two factors will help to contribute to at least some modest elevated instability along with the potential for weak sfc instability. Both the GFS/euro indicate a vigorous 500mb jet streak pushing through New England (80-100+ knots) will help to yield extreme upward vertical motion and forcing. The combination of strong dynamics, strong forcing, and (to some degree) instability will result in the potential for a low-topped squall line to organize and at least push into western sections. The line itself likely won't be associated with strong winds, but just out ahead of this line will be the potential for strong-to-damaging wind gusts..as is typically the case in these type of situations. There are some wildcards as to the potential extent of this activity, however, with sfc dewpoints into the 60's this may result in very weak capping aloft, so there is potential for very strong wind gusts not only from convection, but momentum transport. If the trough was not opening up and lifting to the northeast this would allow for a much stronger surge of CAA in the mid-level. This would be accompanied by steeper mid-level lapse rates and perhaps a much greater threat for widespread severe weather. As t stands now, torrential rainfall and strong/gusty winds look probable; including the risk for some embedded severe t'storms (though we'll have to see if we have enough for lightning generation)

I've been meaning to start a thread for that low topped convection but I've been quite busy.

I was shocked to see HWW's already up off the lakes in NY, but I just looked at some of the bufkit soundings for ROC, BUF, and SYR and HOLY CRAP. Could see gusts 60-80 mph per bufkit soundings lol...sustained 25-40

I haven't had a 40 since December 12. Gave them up when I finished school lol. Usually when winter sucks for a while I start up the May 1 thread then winter hits with a vengeance. ughhh

Thank you! Let's get some post-Halloween damage

Euro indicates potential for some pretty strong wind gusts Friday. Speaking of winds...the situation in CA is going to get worse before it gets better. Insane Santa Ana winds looking likely tomorrow night and Wednesday. Kincade wildfire is only 10% contained too. Hopefully some progress will be made today as the winds subside a bit.

Well at some point things will happen...marriage or kids and once I go down that route it’s not just about what I want to do anymore. So I want to do all this stuff before then.