weatherwiz

Wish OKX did a balloon launch but unfortunately they did not. The instability is very impressive across CT but just need some stronger shear and greater forcing...which is supposed to arrive at some point but does it happen while CAPES are large?

How come links don't seem to work anymore?

ALY did an 18z balloon launch. Really not bad looking at all. Decent CAPE and good shear. Definitely an area to watch. I posted on social media a while ago but models definitely hinting at like eastern NY right around the MA/CT border for good potential.

I think the tornado probability of this is decreasing a bit but HRRR continues to be quite active later on. Should see some damaging storms

Going to try and get to BDL from Branford after work. Might even head towards Granby.

Yes. We really don't want things popping up this early (well if you want severe). The best overlap of ingredients doesn't seem to be until between like 6:00 PM and possibly as late as 2-3:00 AM. Butt he focus area seems to be 6-10 PM. Still torn on around 2-3 AM...really mixed signals but some of the signals are a bit impressive.

Wow that's awesome to hear! I got myself up from like the 500's several years ago to kissing 700 but then I noticed the significant drop. At first I had assumed it was just debt-to-income ratio and applying for some personal loans for school but I looked into it farther and saw the wording about a delinquent account. But I've become extremely responsible when it comes to finances. Outside of when I didn't start paying off original loans from my brief time at LSC I've never missed a payment on anything or have ever been late. I really want 700+ by the time I graduate in December so I can start looking into maybe buying a house or at least renting and putting money away and look into buying a few years down the road.

It was really only b/c it was my mom but w/e. I got it taken care of. I've slowly gotten myself on track to where I want to be!

I got it settled. Lesson learned...don’t let family (or anyone) keep a bill on in your name b/c if they don’t pay you’re screwed. But I did what I needed so I should be all clear now. Thank you a ton for your advice/help

That activity with the warm front though may end up crewing things up a bit but at the same time enhancing potential locally. I'd watch that though this afternoon as it moves through central and northern New England depending on how the shear situation works out.

Things this morning look quite intriguing although there are still some uncertainties...or disagreements. but instability is looking incredibly impressive...we could be looking at MLCape values approaching 2000-3000 when shear is increasing. HRRR/3km NAM do hint at some discrete like cells later on this afternoon and early evening and with secondary development around 6z.

I wonder if this is a day where Albany and Upton would do a special balloon launch?

This is something I'm worried about. I know back in 2009 I defaulted on a loan (which I was beyond stupid at the time) but that should be off my report by now and outside of that there are no bills (cell phone, credit card, car insurance/payments) that I have missed a payment on or been late on ever. But this is something I will certainly do. Thank you for the input!

That’s certainly a possibility..and would virtually mean that the meh mid-level lapse rates don’t matter in this case. I know at least the 12z NAM bufget showed 0-1km CAPE values almost at 100 J. LCL’s too are quite low and there is a great deal of CAPE and shear around the LCL height. Storm motion too almost looks like that alone can enhance helicity even more

I wonder if we can escape that down this way. Seems like this tries to happen northwest of here and that activity that does develop may try to strengthen through the morning as it heads into central/northern New England. If things sort of time right with that seems like it’s also just ahead of the warm front so maybe a line of broken supercells? Down here in CT we may escape and be able to push well into the mid 80’s for highs...although nothing really approaches (per 3km NAM) until 0z and then completely falls apart but then a huge redevelopment around 6z. Not much of a cap tomorrow so and some of the soundings down here are quite impressive by 20-21z so if a cell can pop and there is enough upper support around it has plenty to work with

Do you think cloud cover is a bit overdone? (This link I used to use to see cloud top temps doesn’t seem to have it anymore so not sure if there are indications of warning tops) but the IR doesn’t look horrible. But yeah I agree that the timing of things so late could be concerning. The NAM though does have some solid s/w energy moving through between 21z and 0z which I would think should initiate things sooner.

what's the forcing mechanism?

86/68 here...almost beautiful. Wish dews were over 70

what was the Euro like?

eh...when it comes to convection I think it is very difficult to compare events. You can compare synoptic features and upper-level patterns but that doesn't always translate to similar outcomes. With this setup we have increasing shear (though nothing overly crazy but sufficient), plenty of low-level moisture, and plenty of instability (mainly due to the presence of rich low-level moisture). Mid-level lapse rates are meh but we have a good shortwave and decent height falls. So we have pieces there it's just a matter of how do they come together? Questions also regarding cloud cover, any ongoing precip in the morning, etc also play into things.

Not a bad idea. My credit score keeps dropping and I'm not sure why...well I have an idea b/c it's dropped quite a bit. I have applied for several credit cards and loans and such the past few years which I know isn't really a good thing (as far as score impact) but when I check free monthly score from my bank it lists like top 3 reasons (not sure if that's applied to me or just in general) but a listing of a derogatory account has popped up and I am very confused b/c I pay all my bills on time. Haven't missed any sort of payment on anything since like 2008 or 2009. Thanks for the tip!!

Think he's on vacation

Random question... Are there people who can can go to and have them go over your credit report with you and such so if you had questions they could help answer them and provide some insight/advice? (And yes I know I would have to pay some money and I would be fine with that...just as long as it isn't anything overly crazy then I would just figure out some things myself).

GFS just as impressive

Yikes