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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    nasty looking cell southeast of Syracuse. There's your elevated supercell and what is indicative even just along/north of WF EDIT: actually may not be that elevated
  2. weatherwiz
    SW CT very much in the game. The warm front looks to even be making progress. And even just on the north side of the front you have to watch for elevated supercells with large hail potential. The instability/thermal gradient with this front needs to be kept in mind.
  3. weatherwiz
    where the warm front moves through skies should clear relatively quickly. On satellite you basically go from startacrap to naked sun bathing within the span of someones yard
  4. weatherwiz
    It's due to track of sf low. But the warm front should get into CT...probably not through whole state. The greatest question just seems to be destabilization...HRRR doesn't want to generate all that much...nor other models. Maybe clouds too much of a problem but with those steeper lapse rates nearby and high dews won't take much heating to crank instability.
  5. weatherwiz
    bufkit soundings not nearly as unstable cross Waterbury, CT (from all models) as they were yesterday but this is pretty impressive to see from the HREF
  6. weatherwiz
    Today is just going to be a question of instability I think. I do think we'll get the warm front into CT and probably very close to Hartford. We're talking about effective bulk shear values approaching 60 knots with effective helicity values of 300 m2s2...if we push MLCAPE ~2,000+ J/KG (which is possible) there is going to be some big time trouble today.
  7. weatherwiz
    oh great COD stopped working
  8. weatherwiz
    0z HRRR looking rather nasty.
  9. weatherwiz
    Bust in the TOR department but there were several microbursts. Lapse rates were forecast to be pretty good actually but AM crap sort of weakened them. Never did generate a good amount of MLCAPE and shear was just too much for the updrafts and that hurt convection from becoming deep
  10. weatherwiz
    yeah that it does
  11. weatherwiz
    That is super scary...that much CAPE with over 400 m2s2 of helicity. Nothing good can come from that
  12. weatherwiz
    Waterbury, CT on the NAM 4 PM tomorrow
  13. weatherwiz
    I honestly don't know if the probs were even that high then. maybe 45 but I can't recall seeing a 60 but who knows...memory fading
  14. weatherwiz
    I think this composite overdoes things at times but I mean...the ingredients are there and like you said, where warm front settles it's probably going to be big. Also noting that 18z is kinda focusing the boundary a bit more SW...also noting that forecast soundings actually back the llvl winds a bit (and not in the good way)
  15. weatherwiz
    I don't recall ever seeing a 60 up this way...though it may have happened with 05/15/2018. If the damaging wind signal becomes widespread I think we could see a moderate risk.
  16. weatherwiz
    probabilistic probability of a significant tornado (EF2+) based on a combination of forecast mixed-layer CAPE, mixed-layer LCL height, 0-1km helicity, and bulk shear
  17. weatherwiz
    OH MY GOD
  18. weatherwiz
    you know me too well
  19. weatherwiz
    and that's not far from where I work! That could be perfect
  20. weatherwiz
    Wow...15-20 foot storm surge now forecast across parts of TX/LA coast...holy ****
  21. weatherwiz
    With these updrafts tomorrow...I want some stratosphere penetration.
  22. weatherwiz
    Debating if I want to do BDL tomorrow or go towards SW CT. Just tough to find good areas with wide open views down there. Could do Newtown...there's a few spots I know. Danbury is a no-no given the COVID spike.
  23. weatherwiz
    I don't argue that...was more of just throwing out a thought more than anything.
  24. weatherwiz
    I recall somewhat of a similar setup...forget there year but it was early 2010's. I think there was an EF-2 or even EF-3 around the Albany area which occurred with a supercell on the northern fringe of the warm front and they only had temperatures in the 60's. It was a crazy gradient with temps in PA near 90 and dews around 70. I remember chasing that day with my friend and we had gone into PA. Even though the temps were rather chilly the storm was drawing inflow from the southwest where instability was large
  25. weatherwiz
    Might actually be a setup where you may want to be on the northern fringe of the warm front. That's where you'l not only maximize the shear but SR inflow may actually be from the warm sector so instability is still being utilized.
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