weatherwiz

That's what sucks about alot of this stuff...all mostly GFS based and it's difficult to get access to anything which uses Euro data. AAM seems highly intriguing but quite complex with all the different torques that are at play. But is it the AAM/torques which drive the deviations in the jet stream or is it the deviations in the jet stream which drive the AAM/torques? If it's the later then the models forecasts of it would be almost insignificant b/c if the models are forecasting some deviation in the jet (which ends up being incorrect) it will reflect in AAM/torque forecast.

I'll try and see if I can gather some info from the twitter world after

Isn't it useful to try and gauge how the jet stream may behave? I'm trying to find just a few key teleconnections/forcings to focus on and do extensive research into...instead of just doing little on the dozens and dozens and dozens of variables that exist. Do the extensive research on a select few and then branch out. What would be a select few in your opinion to focus on?

I've come across this place on twitter and a few other weather forums. However, when I do the username and password it just says your connection is not private. Can someone see if this works for them?

Are there any sites which have AAM plots? I know there are a few groups who have been working to construct them after the individuals at the PSD retired. WDT used to host them but guess they don't anymore.

You're right...wow this didn't even cross my mind. Most airport codes are pretty easy to decipher and piece together but for some reason that thought never occurred to me here. Sometimes I over think and get all bent out of shape instead of trying to put 2 + 2 together

that one kinda drives me nuts too...but it is the Hartford area. I never even heard of Avaca...was on the NWS BGM page looking at climate data for AVP and they had Avoca in parenthesis so then I knew on that thredex site that it was Scranton. Pissed me off

God knows what other locations they do this for. Stupid...going to have to go through and figure it out. Like why would they have it listed at Avoca...it's a stupid borough

what I hate about this website is instead of listing Scranton/Wilkes-Barre they list it as Avoca...THE NWS PAGE HAS IT AS SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE...CALL IT THAT

Yeah that agreement is pretty solid. Even though there are those differences in the eastern PAC/western US...not sure it would really amount to significant differences...either way it's a solid look but not fully out

Pretty interesting how much the euro and the GFS differ on the PAC side of things...pretty solid agreement regarding the configuration of the ATL. At least there is a window to get something potentially decent (actually perhaps two opportunities). What scares me with the Euro is if we miss out on a storm potential we're just going to get nailed with cold straight out of the Arctic or even Siberian origin :x

This is fun discussion too...very great. I love playing with and crunching numbers. Just looking at a specific number doesn't really tell you much.

yeah November...and even December is still a transition month depending on where you are. For example, BDL...beginning of November ave high is upper 50's, by months end its mid 40's. December goes from mid 40's to mid 30's. It's January (which has the least) and February winter months which have smallest deviation from start to end

Just did this for Hartford...only using climo period (would love to just pick a random date and collect temperatures on every date...when I have some time at some point) Avg = 53 6 times the max was in the 40's and 6 times in the 60's...so just as much of a chance to have a high temperature into the 60's as in the 40's on this date. But given the average is closer to 50 and opposed to higher in the 50's I guess you can decipher there is a better chance of it being on the colder side than the warmer side.

I think you also have to consider what's the more likely. For example, Say you have values of 80, 75, 73, 69, 45, 47, 48, and 50. The average is about 61...but in reality there is just of good as a chance of seeing 70+ as there is 50 Anyways...we're dealing with a very large data set so the spread may not be that crazy...but it would be really awesome to dig into and look at the high temperature for a particular day back to records and then do a breakdown.

This is something I strongly, strongly, strongly agree with and I've thought a quite a bit about this lately. Say an average is 55...well it would be interested to know how many times the temperatures was below a certain value and how many times the temperature was above a certain value. Sometimes averages can be extremely deceiving. Although, the larger the data set the less spread there should be over time.

When you were 2 or 3 sweatshirts plus a jacket...it's too cold...and two pair of gloves.

I used to do outside work in the heat all the time and I've done it in the cold. Much prefer the heat than the cold. When it's hot you just pace yourself and make sure you drink plenty of water. Adding layers doesn't work as well as people think...unless you're wearing specialized equipment. Though you're absolutely right...it's the extremes where the impacts begin. 20's...30's that's right...70's...80's that's fine.

On the 0z EPS 500mb height anomalies looking at ~240-hours out...would that configuration east of Greenland into Europe be considered an east-based -NAO? Trying to visualize the NAO domain here but it almost seems that the core of the anomalies may be outside of the NAO domain? What is the other teleconnection which encompasses that part of the world...is that the EA/WR?

I saw a tweet yesterday that had some numbers for the record low max's and min's which were set...I gotta try and find the exact numbers but they were quite impressive.

There is nothing remotely good about cold. And all those people who prance around screaming, "I'd rather be cold then hot. You can always add clothes, you can't take them off"...GARBAGE...COMPLETE GARBAGE. What a ridiculous phrase. There is nothing good about cold. Nothing fun about shivering

In all seriousness I'm just being selfish and calling it brutal b/c I hate it lol. I also fear we will be seeing airmasses much worse than this...which hopefully I guess will produce some snow.

Snowing in Branford

I've been drinking these protein things from the store for breakfast...30G of protein! I still gotta get to a doctor though. One of these days I'll start putting my health ahead of everything else lol yeah I have no clue how people can live in those places. They have to leave their cars running 24/7 lol

I am always cranky.