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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Nice looking cell moving into NW CT
  2. weatherwiz
    the problem is, despite the sun ripping out, is there just isn’t much in the way of forcing or large-scale lift. We have all the ingredients needed for severe wx and for the possibility of a tornado...except lift and we’ll that is kinda important. Maybe differential heating or if the warm front can hang around a bit...that could be a focal point?
  3. weatherwiz
    Oh damn lol. This is where I am right now but about to head back home.
  4. weatherwiz
    Supercell composite of 12 and Sig TOr of 2 SE NY into SW CT. Don’t see those values often here
  5. weatherwiz
    Attempted to chase that stuff in NE CT. At Crystal Lake but headed back to Windsor Locks and will wait on stuff from ENY
  6. weatherwiz
    As long as they rotate
  7. weatherwiz
    Anyone with access to RPM know what it shows for today?
  8. weatherwiz
    That ongoing cell in NJ could be the one to watch.
  9. weatherwiz
    All the ingredients are certainly there. Almost kinda a good thing there isn’t a huge amount of lift...want to keep storms discrete. HRRR is wild but I think it’s warm front happy overdone
  10. weatherwiz
    Was too early I’m unsure if what I want to do really. Not sure how much we see develop.
  11. weatherwiz
    Looking decent across PA/NY but the question is initiation. I am leaning towards going to NE PA tomorrow
  12. weatherwiz
    These last few pages are a disaster
  13. weatherwiz
    still debating on going into NE PA.
  14. weatherwiz
    oof you're not kidding. Not a good thing to see...especially for so early in the morning when you would expect overnight convection to really aid in things.
  15. weatherwiz
    yes. although NNE might have a shot on Monday
  16. weatherwiz
    I'm thinking perhaps NE PA? I've done that before...shit area but fook it.
  17. weatherwiz
    Seriously considering chasing Sunday...
  18. weatherwiz
    It's done a relatively good job fighting the shear. I think it looks much better than it did this morning. We'll see how much these flare ups of convection help too...especially moving into the overnight when convection typically seems to really increase. Looks like even some cloud tops now colder than -90C...impressive
  19. weatherwiz
    Trying to look super close at the computer (so close I hit my nose on the screen) but satellite presentation really seems to be improving with an increase in convection. I like to call hot towers popcorn towers v/c they pop like popcorn
  20. weatherwiz
    river tubing for the chickens
  21. weatherwiz
    I wonder if there is an interaction at play with the s/w over the Great Lakes area...storm really seems to strengthen up around NJ...also looks like it may even keep the center perhaps a bit offshore...though that could be resolution driven?
  22. weatherwiz
    Yes. This is in dangerous territory...discounting any type of solution or letting guard down just is not a good idea. Even though ensembles seem to have a rather solid agreement on what occurs that still needs to be taken with caution...only b/c the evolution over the next 24...even 48 hours holds the key. Too my untrained eye there does seem to be some better organization transpiring over the past few hours.
  23. weatherwiz
    life's too bad sometimes
  24. weatherwiz
    Model Intensity Guidance for the most part does not go above category 1...still though, given the area this is in I would not dismiss anything at this juncture. These next 24-hours are huge. I mean any sort of slight trend towards favorable conditions and this could take off in a heart beat...and we've seen that happen numerous times within this region.
  25. weatherwiz
    I wonder if this will be upped a bit at 2:00...latest recon did find an area of pretty strong winds
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