weatherwiz

If the NAM is right Thursday will be quite scary in the south. Would argue high risk potential. NAM seems to be alone though

maybe corona will help keep EML's intact longer

Soon enough we'll be tracking outbreaks

hail in Old Saybrook per my boss

I'd say it was a pretty decent wet macroburst

I HAD A SEVERE WEATHER DREAM LAST NIGHT!!! Was under tornado warning and saw a massive gust front...severe season getting close!!!!!!

Agreed on your thoughts. I think it's going to get tough to advect in the steeper llvl lapse rates needed to ultimately yield severe gusts. I did notice that some forecast soundings did exhibit a bit of an inverted V signature but I also noticed potential for an inversion to develop...warm front at the sfc remains south and we get WAA aloft but strengthening llvl jet off the water will probably make some inversion.

10 DAYS TO GO!!!!

I could see a quick inch in parts of the Berks

I was actually a bit surprised to see the upgrade to slight. I think we'll see some pretty strong wind gusts but not so sure we see defined severe winds...but then again our trees fall at 40 mph winds so. I also think there could be showers ahead of the main action which could hamper the severe threat

yeah I doubt we see large hail...not enough CAPE and not even sure there is even enough moisture available. Oh well...can always wish

Looks like the main mode is linear which may scale back hail potential but I’m wondering if we could actually see some large hail?

It's a shame we can't muster up more instability. Winds should remain below severe criteria (though weakened trees/limbs may come down in places) but there could be quite a bit of small hail.

Looking pretty good tomorrow...actually looks like we'll see a pretty solid line of low topped convection with gusty winds and numerous reports of small hail. Hell, could even be a transition to a brief period of extremely heavy snow in the Berks...maybe drop a quick inch?

Should add the greatest potential is probably across NY, northern PA and perhaps VT but maybe some stuff can sneak into W MA and W CT. Kinda depends on timing

A vigorous piece of s/w energy and associated strong surface cold front moves through New England Tuesday afternoon. Rather cold mid-level temperatures (~-25C at 500mb) will help promote fairly steep mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7 C/KM). The nose of an 80+ knot MLJ streak will punch into the region during the afternoon. Combination of steep mid-level lapse rates, surface temperatures into the 50's and dewpoints into the 40's will yield a very weakly unstable airmass (perhaps 500 J/KG of CAPE). A strengthening low-level jet combined with strong forcing and weak instability may result in a few gusty t'storms with the potential for some small hail.

I like weather.cod.edu

Anyone else scroll through the 384-hr CAPE charts on the GFS yet?

I bet this summer they find traces of COVID-19 in our air which originated in the southwest and was transported to the Northeast via EML advection

20z HRRR for BDL...even getting a -20 of omega to pop up!!!!

1-2'' NYC

agreed

for us southern folk every tick south on the models is a tick north in the pants

This is going to surprise...even down in the valleys. Somewhere in the hills though get 7-10'' I bet.

18z NAM sounding near BDL tonight. Man crazy to think....posting soundings for winter wx now and in a month we'll probably be posting soundings for severe wx hahaha