weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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We are still in the dead of winter, but severe weather season is QUICKLY approaching. Last year was insanely busy and we got started rather early with a tornado outbreak on May 15th. It was a historic year down here in CT as 2018 tied 1973 (and we can debate the accuracy of this) for most confirmed tornadoes in one year at 8. CT was even able to pull off some tornadoes into October. Hopefully we can get another active one this year. Let the countdown begin!!!
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Reminds me of Little house on the Prarie TV show
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This is sick!!!
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Holy crap
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I want to go next year...I’ll get two weeks of vacation!
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This has me so excited for severe weather season! Might have to get the May 1st thread going soon
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Radar is deceiving with this stuff...gotta be careful. It’s very shallow in nature and radar beams can easily overshoot it
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I’m going to try and go snow squall chasing if I’m out of work early enough
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I might get tossed by the wind
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I figured the NAM would show at least half the GFS, but I was still shocked to see the NAM spitting out 60-65+ knots. The 850 jet means business so I guess a 60-65 knot isn’t out of the question
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Not sure which thread the snow squalls for tomorrow are being discussed in, but holy shit. These things are going to mean business. Bufkit soundings at EWR/GFS showing potential for gusts I’ve never seen forecasted around here lol. Don’t think they will be that extreme, but 55-75 can’t be ruled out
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I was just looking at a forecast sounding for 150 HR on the GFS for somewhere in central New England...700-500 lapse rate of 2.5 C/km!!!! Tropopause time. Might be able to kiss it
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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE
weatherwiz replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Looking more for something that just lists a state and any active alerts. On Intellicast they would have a map of alerts and then next to the map it would have a listing of the states with alerts and below the state it would list the alert. For example.. CT: Winter storm watch, wind advisory FL: Tornado watch, flood watch AK: Blizzard warning (This isn't for me BTW). I -
2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE
weatherwiz replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Does anyone know anywhere that lists active weather alerts by state? Intellicast used to have this box and it would list the state and any active alerts for the state, but since the merger with Wundergound that seems to be gone. Have been searching around but haven't found anything else. wunderground.com/severe.asp has something, but you click on the state and a drop down menu appears. Trying to find something that is a bit less time consuming. -
Thank you! roads starting to get worse. Just got back to WeHa from the Wolf Pack game. Snow is wet. Going to be ugly here
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Going to be real close.
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Doesn’t look to get the Valley above 32 at all
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Each run of the HRRR is more and more concerning
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The HRRR is going to nail this...it’s evolution makes a tremendous amount of sense given everything at play. This will not be pretty but this way
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Oh boy...check out latest HRRR. Starting to pick up on the Cold air draining down the valley
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That's where my lowest confidence is, but I'm basing that off the degree of lift and the snow rates I am expecting. I would certainly say totals closer to 4'' than 8'' but there is always some type of surprise with these WAA/strong fronto bands of snow. You rip a good 2'' per hour for two hour (which I don't think is unreasonable) that's 4'' right there I agree...the swath will likely be more narrow (I was more concerned the other day for a much larger area). Yeah...this is a big challenge
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This is my latest map. I think the thump of snow should be pretty impressive. We should dump hard for a good 3-4 hours I would think and with rates of 1-3''/hour I don't see why we can't accumulate this much. Obviously the biggest question is with regards to the freezing rain. I don't think NW of 84 we get into the mid 30's but it's more of a question of do we get to 33-34 or stay more like upper 20's to around 30-31?
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That's what I'm sort of leaning at. Heck...some guidance suggests a max of ZR like in SW Hartford County/SE Litchfield County/NW New Haven County...and that is an area which can do well with icing
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If we are able to drop a good 4-6'' of snow too that could act to stop some of the warmer air from moving in as well.
