weatherwiz

Well we've finally made it to severe wx season and what better way to kick it off with the opportunity for convection...not talking about severe convection unfortunately, however, perhaps some gusty shower or t'storms with potential for small hail or grauple. But since this is a specific event a separate thread for that will come shortly (as in soon)!! Anyways, the April pattern has been nothing short of miserable...chilly, rainy, snow (well not miserable), windy, yuck. There are indications, however, this pattern may finally relax and we may introduce more of a zonal flow across the country. If anything, hopefully this leads to more seasonable temperatures. Perhaps the biggest thing to watch moving through the month will be opportunities for severe wx. Signals in the long range keep emerging strong ridging across the west. Obviously this isn't good for severe wx aspects in the central U.S. but this can shift favorable conditions for severe wx farther east...not necessarily into our region, but OV, mid-Atlantic, and if the proper pattern, into the Northeast. If anything, perhaps this can provide us with some opportunities for some NW flow events or some EML advection...this of course would have to occur via EML air becoming entrained in the exit region of the ridge and traversing through the upper-Midwest into Canada and then from southeast Canada into our area. I think too these EML's may be a bit easier to advect in than ones that pinch off from the SW U.S. b/c those have to traverses through the Plains and OV and stand a better chance at being moderating from warm/moist Gulf air surging northward. Actually having a ridge setting up in the west for May makes the weather geek in me happy as I was going to go to OK the end of May guhhhhhhhh

5 DAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is what I’m afraid of...good pattern for EML trajectory with good CAPE but a crappy northeast pattern shunts it south...boooooooooooooooooooooooooo

6 Days to Go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! woohoooooooo

This is in SW NH...right under where the NAM has some ridiculous fronto setting up Sunday night. This sounding is pretty ridiculous. Pretty decent unstable layer in there too. That would be some tree snapping snow

May's severe wx season.

Damaging times are ahead

I really like how things are progressing into May pattern wise. With that ridge becoming established like that in the west once we relax this crap in the east there may be a room to pinch off some EML air and eject it into our direction...doesn't necessarily it makes it in...could easily get shunted into the upper-Midwest, Ohio Valley, or even get into the Ohio Valley and then shunt south of us. But boy...I feel it in my bones!!!

Could see some more strong t'storms on Thursday again!!! Thread incoming at some point over the weekend.

7 Days to go!!!

IT'S COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOO

8 DAYS TO GO!!!

snow flurries ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh

9 DAYS!!!!

think I got you in

on the backside of the line too

THUNDER!!!!!

Had a little pea hail!!!

friend in Bloomfield has hail

Looks like a nasty waterspout on the Sound

Just enough 3km CAPE/sfc vorticity and effective helicity for a brief TOR potential

Would have been better had I switched to JFK terminal. Rotation in CT...between Woodbury Center and Bethlehem Village

Took a bit but there was a pretty nasty little couplet and a decent little inflow notch

Really not bad considering temps are barely above 50. Actually quite impressed with the llvl lapse rates...given the conditions, cloud cover, etc they're not too bad.